Crucial 10 days to assess COVID-19 spread before lifting restrictions

The next 10 days are crucial to determine whether the government will start to lift some of the coronavirus restrictions, MaltaToday has learnt.

The health authorities will continue monitoring the spread of COVID-19 to determine whether the virus is under control before suggesting any changes to the restrictive regime in place.

“The decision to start lifting restrictions is not an easy one to take because there is the fear of a second wave of infections, which is why the health authorities are proceeding with caution before giving the green light for some measures to be eased,” sources close to government said.

Although the number of daily new cases in Malta has been on the low side for a few days and the number of recovered patients has been increasing, Public Health Superintendent Charmaine Gauci has been warning of undetected community spread.

“The behaviour of the pandemic over the next 10 days will be crucial for the government to decide on an exit strategy but it will be a very slow return to normality,” the sources warned.

Some European countries like Germany, Denmark and Austria have started lifting some of the lockdown measures introduced over the past month to curb the spread of COVID-19 but are doing so with caution. Even some of the worst-hit countries like Spain, have loosened some of the work-related restrictions.

Health Minister Chris Fearne

Health Minister Chris Fearne said last week that some of the restrictions may start being lifted in “the coming weeks”. However, he did not give a timeline and was very cautious.

He insisted that lifting of measures would happen gradually and if the virus spread re-emerged strongly the restrictions would be re-introduced.

Malta shut all travel to and from the island, closed its schools, ordered non-essential shops and services to shutter up, and banned public gatherings of more than three people. The elderly and those with medical conditions that make them vulnerable have also been instructed to stay indoors and venture out only for necessities.

A MaltaToday analysis of the daily number of new cases averaged out over a seven-day period (this is done to smooth the extremely low and high numbers and is known as the 7-day moving average) shows that the average number of daily cases yesterday stood at 7.1.

This means that the daily average has fallen below what it was on 1 April when the number stood at 8.7.

The analysis showed that the 7-day average peaked on 11 April with 22.4 cases and has been dropping since then at a sustained pace.

The largest number of cases in one single day was recorded on 7 April when 52 people tested positive for COVID-19.

There were 12 new cases yesterday, bringing the total number since the pandemic started on 7 March to 443.

The total includes three deaths and 150 people who have fully recovered from the virus.

COVID-19 restrictions have stifled world economies, causing financial hardship to families and businesses.

Lifting the measures is a delicate balancing act between re-igniting economies and protecting people’s health.

The World Health Organisation’s regional office in Europe last week urged countries to ensure they are able to satisfy six criteria before starting a gradual lifting of social distancing restrictions.

Countries will have to be able to demonstrate an ability to identify and isolate suspect COVID-19 cases immediately and monitor close contacts.

They will also have to ensure their health systems are able to cope with COVID-19 cases while providing other routine medical care services that may have been crowded out because of the focus on the pandemic.

Another aspect that will have to be considered during the transition is the ability of countries to continue to protect vulnerable people, especially those living in homes for the elderly.

The transition will also have to see the continued implementation of social distancing and personal hygiene measures at workplaces, the proper management of importation channels and the continuous engagement with communities.

WHO senior advisor Natasha Azzopardi Muscat had warned the transition could not be a one-size-fits-all approach and every step to lift restrictions will have to be monitored.

“This is not a one-way street… we may have to evaluate and re-evaluate strategies. This is not going back to normal but moving forward into a new normal,” she had cautioned.