Normality still far away, warns leading COVID-19 expert

The moment people start letting their guard down by not adhering to social distancing rules and basic norms like washing hands and not touching faces, the COVID-19 virus will strike back in a second wave which can be far more lethal than the first in terms of loss of life. 

The stark warning is made by Dr Chris Barbara, chairman of the Department of Pathology, who was part of the team of experts which deployed Malta’s successful strategy to contain the spread of COVID-19. 

“We have to get used to social distancing for a long period. But the virus is still lurking in the community. It has not been eliminated. It is still infecting people who do not experience any symptoms and are not even aware of it. The moment we give it an opportunity to spread, it will infect more people.” 

Barbara’s advice to the public is to keep their focus on abiding to social distancing rules as they have done so far. “We cannot afford to think that we have won the battle. We cannot let the virus exploit new opportunities to spread.” 

Barbara makes it clear that the public has gotten used to a long period of social distancing between now and the availability of a vaccine, which remains the only way of securing herd immunity. 

One of the risks recognized by Barbara is that Malta’s successful record in diminishing the reproduction rate of the virus may give a false sense of security. 

“We are very happy that we did so well. But this success was only achieved because the public cooperated by abiding to social distancing rules. In that way we protected the most vulnerable, like our elderly… We avoided the over-running of our health services by new cases and we saved lives.” 

He also recognises the “cruelty” of expecting the elderly to live locked down in their houses like in “a cocoon.” 

But any relaxation of these norms now could backfire. “It was thanks to this measure that we avoided loss of lives. We can’t afford to let down our guard.” 

Asked about the probability of a second wave, Barbara insists that this is hard to predict but he still believes that it is still avoidable. “A second wave may be avoided if people continue obeying public health directives on social distancing. It is not inevitable.” 

Asked whether there is a greater chance of the virus making a comeback in autumn, Barbara insists that the second wave is not dependent on the seasons but will start the very moment people stop abiding to social distancing rules. 

Asked about the gradual relaxation of economic activities, Barbara insists that this is being done gradually and based on the low reproduction rate of the virus in Malta. 

“Yet even if some economic sectors re-open, it does not mean that we are returning to normality… There can be no normality until there is a vaccine. Let us not forget that in northern Italy it was two cases which snowballed into an epidemic. In the next months we have to learn to live with rules on social distancing. There is no other way until a vaccine is available.” 

He also dismisses the possibility of achieving herd immunity in the absence of a vaccine. “The UK has tried this at a great human cost. We cannot afford to put people’s lives at risk.” 

Barbara would not dare commit himself on a time-frame for the production of availability of a vaccine. 

“Basically we are here not just talking of protocols required to ensure that the vaccine is safe but we are also talking on the production of a vaccine for practically every living person in the planet, something which is bound to take time.”