[ANALYSIS] Delia’s PN fails to make inroads among university graduates

University-educated respondents to MaltaToday survey are shedding their political loyalties it seems. They have shown themselves to be nearly four times more likely to abstain in a forthcoming election than those with a secondary level of education, three times more than those with a post-secondary level of education, and 12 times more than those with a primary level of education.

The fraction of non-voters – just one-tenth of voters on a national scale – rises to almost 20% among the university-educated, suggesting higher levels of distrust in the political system from this cohort.

Nearly half, or 44%, said they won’t vote or are undecided whom to vote for, compared to 26% with post-secondary and 16% with secondary levels of education.

This is a clear indication that the higher the level of education, the weaker partisan loyalties are becoming. In fact, while 84% of those with secondary education are keen on voting either the PN or the PL, the combined sum of both parties among the university-educated falls to just 54%.

Yet despite weakening political loyalties, support for third parties among the university-educated remains very low at around 2%. This suggests the only alternative considered to voting for either major parties is not to vote at all, something that might reflect the absence of a viable third party which can attract these voters.

Since this educational group has been traditionally PN-leaning, the high number of abstainers could also reflect the current distrust in Adrian Delia among a cohort of PN voters. In fact, this was also the only cohort to shift to the PN during the political crisis in December amidst a decline in non-committed voters from previous surveys.

However, subsequently Labour strengthened its lead in this category of tertiary-educated voters. This suggests that under Abela, Labour has renewed its appeal among upwardly-mobile educated voters. While in the middle of the December crisis the PN had overtaken the PL by 6 points in this category, Labour has enjoyed a lead of between 14 and 22 points in all subsequent surveys. Although the lead remains lower than the 30-point national lead, Labour’s lead among the tertiary-educated remained consistent over the past five months.

Moreover, the lowest percentage of non-committed university educated voters was registered in April when Labour also enjoyed a strong 22-point advantage in this group, with its support reaching an all-time high of 41%. This suggests that political loyalties among this group are fluid. While during the political crisis in December a decline in non-committed voters had resulted in the PN overtaking Labour by six points among the tertiary educated cohort, this was not the case in April when the number of non-committed voters was even lower.

What surveys seem to suggest is with the exception of a surge in December during Labour’s greatest crisis, under Delia the PN has failed in making any inroads among the university-educated segment. In fact, in this segment the percentage of PN voters (20%) is lower than both undecided voters (22%) and non-voters (22%).

Support for the PN has oscillated between 17% and 20% in recent surveys since February, a considerable decline since December when the PN scored 25% among the tertiary-educated. On the other hand, Labour’s support has oscillated between 33% and 41%.

Surveys also show that among the university-educated, any decrease in the percentage of non-voters in this category corresponds to an increase in undecided voters, rather than by any significant shift towards any of the two major parties. For example, a 16-point increase in non-voters between April and May was corresponded by a 10-point decrease in the percentage of undecided voters. This suggests a tendency among the university-educated to shift between a clear resolve not to vote to a state of indecision on who to vote for the party’s leadership among this category.

Since the formation of the new government, the percentage of non-voters among the university educated has oscillated between a 6% low in April and 32% in March, while the percentage of undecided voters oscillated between 15% in March and 39% in February.

A regional analysis shows that the region with the highest percentage of non-committed voters is the more affluent north which includes St Paul’s Bay, Mosta, Mellieha and Naxxar. In this region, 31% of voters are either undecided or intent on not voting. The region also boasts the highest percentage of voters intent on not voting (14%). Although traditionally Nationalist-leaning, Labour has made considerable inroads here in the past years. In contrast, the lowest percentage of non-committed voters is found in the Labour southeast where 15% are either undecided or intent on not voting. Yet the survey also indicates a degree of discontentment in Labour’s strongholds in the south harbour region where 13% intend not voting and 27% are non-committal.