Labour in love: six reasons the PL likes Adrian Delia

An unlikely conspiracy theory on social media is that Adrian Delia, elected by rank and file Nationalist Party members and reconfirmed three years later by PN councillors, is a Labour stooge planted by eminence grise Keith Schembri to lead it astray. But there are six more rational reasons why Labour is happy with Delia staying at the helm, JAMES DEBONO writes

Lame duck Delia suits Labour as it grapples with post-Muscat legacy and COVID pains

Labour should be facing its own devils as it comes to terms with the corruption and dirty deals of the Muscat era, and struggling to contain the economic fall-out of the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite the exemplary handling of the pandemic, as well as kicking out former ministers Chris Cardona and Konrad Mizzi, Abela has to contend with the legacy of Joseph Muscat, whose popularity inside Labour remains intact. Having a divided opposition led by someone whose survival is at stake means they cannot give Labour a run for its money: the polls say so. With such internal strife, Delia remains the key to a Labour super-majority. And by staying on after his double no-confidence votes, Delia ensures the PN does not even stand a fighting chance.

Delia is no threat to Labour: his war against the PN establishment reminds Labour voters of the PN’s endemic class prejudice should they be returned to power. None of these voters will bother voting for Delia in any case

The more Labour loves him, the more diminished Delia gets in the eyes of PN voters

Labour pundits like Robert Musumeci shower Delia with praise to target the generically termed “holier than thou” faction of old Nationalists and their sense of entitlement. But the catch-all phrase also attacks those who question Labour’s abysmal good governance credentials. With the red-carpet treatment he got on Brian Hansford’s Realtà on TVM – which is directed at a Labour audience – Delia gets no traction and only sympathy from those who would never dream of voting Nationalist. And this friendly embrace from Labour is totally lethal for the PN leader, because it neutralises any pungent attacks on Labour’s corrupt deals, and alienates intransigent PN voters.

It also strengthens the perception that Delia is Labour’s ‘useful idiot’. Embarrassed by well-wishers from Labour, Delia is forced to increase his attack on Labour, in turn alienating moderate voters. In this game, Labour’s love sows more chaos in the PN, because it has no interest in seeing Delia growing stronger in the PN. Labour’s wet dream is a prolonged civil war inside the PN, with Delia sticking it out for as long as he came. Even if he survives as a lame duck leader, Delia cannot assert himself in his party. And in this sense, even the exasperation of the rebels plays into Labour’s hands, because their unrelenting war ensures Delia will have no real chance of winning over the electorate.

Delia’s attacks on government boomerang on himself and the PN because of his baggage and antics

Delia has had his own brilliant moments in confronting Labour’s corruption, especially by challenging the sale of public hospitals in the law courts and through his firm initial reaction to the 17 Black scandal. But every time Delia goes on the attack, he ends up on the receiving end of controversy simply because of his baggage. Like finding himself obscurely investigated by the economic crimes unit on allegations of money laundering in his work as a private lawyer for the owners of Soho properties; or now because of leaked WhatsApp messages (whose content he denies) showing that he entertained a meeting with Yorgen Fenech after it was revealed that he was the owner of 17 Black. Even Keith Schembri managed to deflect attention from his own relationship with Fenech, by putting the spotlight on Delia allegedly receiving funds from Fenech in a bid to stop MEP candidate David Casa from being elected, while taking the witness stand in the case against Fenech.

With the red-carpet treatment he got on Brian Hansford’s Realtà on TVM – which is directed at a Labour audience – Delia gets no traction and only sympathy from those who would never dream of voting Nationalist

And while Delia strongly denies this allegation, his name crops up as a convenient punching bag whenever Labour is in difficulty, with Delia taking flak from his own. Surely enough, even Simon Busuttil was constantly thwarted by dubious business connections and his own front-benchers’ pecuniary interests. But Busuttil’s own integrity remained unscathed to the end, commanding enough moral authority to chide Gozitan district heavyweight Giovanna Debono. One major problem for Delia is that Abela himself raised the bar in his own party by dismissing Cardona and Mizzi in the absence of judicial proof of their wrongdoing. Did Abela raise it too high for Delia, himself under investigation and whose justification for not resigning is uncannily similar to that given by Konrad Mizzi?

Delia and Labour share a common enemy: the intransigent and entitled old PN

Ideologically, the socially conservative Delia is even more distant from the PL than many of his internal critics, something amply clear in his stance against the IVF leave ordnance or his vote on a domestic violence bill, justified by invoking the abortion card. In both cases some rebel PN MPs found themselves voting with Labour.

But Labour’s antipathy towards former leader Simon Busuttil plays a part in the preference for Delia, who unsuccessfully tried to expel his predecessor when the Egrant inquiry was published. While refraining from constantly raising the stakes as Busuttil was prone to doing, Delia’s approach on corruption may have been effective, but he was unable to secure a united stance.

When he followed Labour’s narrative by positioning himself against the PN’s establishment, he failed to recognise that – although entitlement by dominant elites invigorated the intransigence against Labour after 2013 – civil society opposition to Labour’s antics in power were vital in regenerating the opposition. In this way Delia failed to transcend the rift and bridge the PN’s working and middle classes, liberals and conservatives. It would have been Labour’s worst nightmare.

By hitting hard on his own party’s ‘elitism’, Delia further confirmed Labour’s narrative. But adding credibility to that narrative are vocal exponents of the anti-Delia camp, illustrated only recently by lawyer Andrew Borg Cardona’s depiction of Delia supporters as “third-tier Nationalists”. The viral Facebook post was exploited by both Labour and Delia supporters in their war against the PN’s establishment.

Delia could be punished by PN abstainers, and still his anti-elite shtick has no traction amongst the Labour working class

Polls show a segment of PN voters will abstain in the next general election. Labour retains 94% of its 2017 voters, the PN just 57%, with 15% saying they won’t vote, and 23% undecided. Confirming Delia’s lack of appeal among middle-class voters, 44% of university-educated voters say they won’t vote or are undecided, compared to 26% with post-sec and 16% with just secondary levels of education.

But apart from losing these voters, Delia made no inroads amongst working-class voters, particularly those in the south of Malta. In the southeast, the PN’s support is an abysmal 12% compared to Labour’s 73%, risking the PN’s wipe-out, torn as it is between abstention in its northern strongholds and Labour’s southern comfort.

And that’s why Delia is no threat to Labour: his war against the PN establishment reminds Labour voters of the PN’s endemic class prejudice should they be returned to power. None of these voters will bother voting for Delia in any case.

Delia’s forced resignation could see some of his support move to Labour

It remains hard to predict the behaviour of Delia’s grassroots supporters should he resign. Resentment at the coup engineered by the PN’s establishment could see them seduced by Labour. On the face of it, Delia’s appeal appears strong with party tribalists whose identity is shaped by antagonism towards Labour, and it is difficult to imagine that this cohort could ever consider voting Labour. If anything, loyalists of the deposed leader might abstain, presenting the PN with another Catch-22: abstention of middle-class voters with Delia at the helm, or disenchanted working and lower-middle voters with Delia out. Either way, the prolonged civil war while Delia stays on will lose the PN more support among middle-of-the-road voters alienated by the media spectacle.