[ANALYSIS] Bullish Abela outperforms Grech in Budget speech

1. Abela did better than expected while Grech who had all eyes on him in anticipation, played safe and failed to impress

This year’s budget speech was clearly one of Abela’s best televised performances so far. Compared to poor, long-winded performances during televised press conferences during lockdown, Abela performance surpassed expectations. In contrast more was expected of Grech, who was hailed as a seasoned communicator before his election as PN leader. In the end he gave an average performance. Unlike Grech, who largely limited himself to reading a script – thus appearing stiff and sometimes confused – Abela was more bubbly, reactive, and confident.

Still despite having the upper hand, Abela did come across as unnecessarily confrontational, especially when considering that Grech was not. In fact, Labour has found itself spinning Grech’s largely positive and forward-looking speech as “negative”, banking on the fact that many had either not watched it or had turned off, bored by Grech’s monotonous start. Significantly while Grech probably lost a chunk of his audience in the first part of his speech before he set the ball rolling, even delivering some blows as he went along, Abela started his speech on a strong, albeit cocky and self-congratulatory note, entertaining his audience with barbs against the Opposition and then moving on to more specific topics. 

Yet overall, while Abela emphasised ‘national unity’ he was also divisive and bullish, pressing on the Opposition to admit that Malta is “full up” and continuously mocking Grech (justifiably) for his past fiscal misdemeanours and also for less serious gaffes, which pale in significance with far greater scandals plaguing Labour. 

This may go down well with tribal audiences but may irk more moderate and reflective voters who may find Abela over the top.

2. Abela had a good budget to sell. Grech had to criticise it but he could have changed the focus to his own proposal.

Abela had one notable advantage. He was defending a budget which delivered goodies including an increase in pensions to various sectors in very difficult times. 

And while his handling of COVID-19 pandemic during the summer months, left a lot to desire, his handling of the economy during the pandemic has proved successful especially in terms of employment figures.

His comparison with the austerity prevailing before 2013 – evoked 17 times during the budget speech – was in this sense highly effective. Abela’s message was consistent; if we can do better than PN governments during a pandemic, just imagine what we can do when we are out of this. What Abela does not say is that COVID-19 itself has enabled governments to spend more and incur deficits. What distinguishes Malta is that its public debt figures have enabled it to spend its way out of the crisis without much long-term damage. 

On the other hand, Grech struggled between welcoming some of the measures while questioning the direction of the country. While some of his criticism on COVID-19 and Labour’s economic model is pertinent, he failed to capture the imagination by emphasising a few of his own proposals with clarity and depth. And while one can question how sustainable a model based on low taxation and high spending is in the long term, Grech could not do this without sounding like a prophet of doom.

Instead he ended up proposing a few measures of his own, some of which looked half-baked like the proposed living wage.

Other measures sounded like ways to avoid taking a stance as was the case with his convoluted proposal of a masterplan for Gozo before any final decision on the tunnel. 

3. Abela was optimistic pitting hope against fear while Grech did not do enough to balance justified concern on the COVID death toll with an uplifting message

While Abela’s speech conveyed optimism and hope in auguring a quick return to ‘normality’, Grech was more solemn in commemorating those who lost their life in the pandemic.

Yet while Abela sounded insensitive and too eager to set the engine running again, Grech failed to balance his criticism of Abela’s lack of leadership in the second wave of the pandemic, with generating optimism around his own party’s proposals. 

Still despite his pretensions on presenting the “best ever budget”, Abela seems too keen on continuity with an economic model, which made his present spending spree possible, but on which the country is hooked in its dependence on endless construction and importation of foreign labour.

Abela himself acknowledged that the country found itself losing some of its values while sprinting ahead. This raises the question; will the country repeat the same mistakes as soon as it starts running again? 

4. Abela has no scruples on pandering to migration fears triggered by boat arrivals while the PN focuses on foreign workers which are perceived as a source of revenue

Through his speech Abela made a clear distinction between boat people for which the country is full up and foreign workers who come here through legal channels for which the country will remain open. In this sense he appeals to a mentality which sees foreigners as little more than a source of revenue for the Maltese.

He also said that all those who come here irregularly will be sent back ignoring the fact that asylum seekers also come here irregularly but have an internationally guaranteed right to apply for asylum. Abela could have at least specified that he was referring to those with no claim to asylum and not to all those who arrive here by boat. To further aggravate matters he took pride in blocking the harbour to “boats of COVID infected immigrants” when this was not even the case with boat arrivals in March and April. 

Abela’s complete lack of empathy with people arriving in boats can only serve to embolden bigots who are not keen on fine distinctions.

In the same speech correctly praised the contribution of foreign nurses and other foreign workers particularly nurses for their contribution during the pandemic.

Here it is Abela who fails to make a distinction between foreign workers needed to provide vital services in hospitals and those imported in precarious conditions to perform lowly paid jobs particularly in construction.

Moreover Abela’s recognition of their work falls short of granting these people political rights, including the right for third country nationals to vote in local council elections.

Yet while Abela’s discourse is problematic, he appeals to the common sense of the people, in an area where Grech is bound to appear more moderate than Abela. Curiously Abela found himself contrasting the PN to more hawkish parties in the European People’s Party some of which are allied to far-right parties.

But his own discourse on the issue may well make most European socialists cringe. 

5. Abela manages to project unity in his own party while hitting at divisions in the PN

During his speech Abela reached out to his leadership rival Chris Fearne, describing him as the best health minister in history while repeatedly mentioning him along with national icon Charmaine Gauci (whom he mentioned five times). 

The image he projects is that of a party which is united and open to everyone. That is why Abela repeatedly referred to his party as a movement.

He has also resurrected the divorce issue, proposing lifting the four-year separation requirement, in a move which could ignite tension in the PN, now led by a leader who had campaigned against divorce.

Moreover, aware of the multifaceted nature of his coalition, he distinguishes himself from Joseph Muscat’s party by emphasising the socialist orientation of his government which he substantiates by measures targeting low income earners and protecting jobs during COVID-19, while still proclaiming himself to be “both pro business and pro market”. And unlike most socialists the world over he prides himself on not taxing the profits of the rich and instead prefers an economic model in which the country is hooked on capitalist growth and passport sales.

Despite his green pretensions, Abela was quick to remind property developers on how dire the situation in their sector was between 2008 and 2013. 

Significantly in his litany of superlatives he now also claims that his party is the best even in governance, taking pride in the fact that under his watch heads have rolled.

Yet he failed to convincingly reply to Grech’s challenge to hold an inquiry on the Electrogas project and boasting about becoming a model of good governance for others shows a lack of humility especially when considering the silence of nearly all present Labour MPs on this issue before last December.

In this aspect Abela still has to prove himself, and his cockiness may raise expectations which he is in no position to deliver without turning against his predecessor and his legions of sycophants.

Abela is now facing another test, initially resisting calls for the removal of MFSA CEO Joseph Cuschieri following revelations of his Las Vegas trip with Yorgen Fenech in May 2018. Cuschieri later suspended himself pending an investigation.

Grech is in the same position with regards to party unity with time still needed to heal past wounds.

For while he did congratulate Adrian Delia for his court case on Vitals, he is vulnerable to criticism that he formed part of a plot to remove a PN leader, albeit one legitimised by a strong vote of party members. Abela did exploit these divisions, warning Grech that others like Roberta Metsola could end up doing to him what he did to Delia.