Five ways COVID-19 will weigh on the next general election

Internationally the response to the COVID-19 pandemic has had a major political fallout, being singled out as a major factor in the defeat of US President Donald Trump, and foiling his attempts to focus the election campaign on the economy.

It has also contributed to the formation of a technocratic government led by economist Mario Draghi in Italy and the erosion of support for the Christian Democrats in Germany, who suffered bruising defeats in key regional elections over growing concern on the country’s sluggish vaccination rate.

While initially voters rallied behind governing parties in the face of the new threat, a year on, electorates all over the world have become more restless. But despite lockdowns and an onslaught on public health services, strong populist leaders like Boris Johnson and the Dutch liberal Mark Rutte have retained their poll leads. How will these dynamics play out in Malta in a scenario where Robert Abela has so far retained a strong but diminished poll lead?

1. A June election is now definitely out of the question

The arrival of a third wave triggered by more infective variants already known in January, but whose impact was apparently downplayed in Malta’s pandemic strategy, has dispelled speculation of an early election in June. In calling an early election Robert Abela would have banked on the feel-good factor in the country resulting from a successful vaccine roll-out and the achievement of herd immunity.

In January Abela predicted that the economy would start its recovery in March returning to “business as usual” by May. But while the vaccine roll-out has been largely successful, the spike in cases and increased pressures on the health system, as a result of the government’s refusal to introduce restrictions immediately after Christmas, have derailed Abela’s recovery plans. With a June election out of the question, it remains to be seen whether Abela will call the election immediately after the achievement of herd immunity in autumn or whether he will do so after presenting a post-recovery budget.

That will also depend on the state of public finances, aggravated by what is expected to be a difficult summer for the tourism sector. This increases the likelihood of an election in early 2022 when the pandemic will probably be history.

2. Robert Abela has lost his sheen, as Grech has emerged stronger. But the opposition risks sounding divisive

A year ago the government’s robust pandemic response, consisting of an efficient testing, contact-tracing system and wage supplements for the worst-hit sectors, earned Abela a polling boost over a divided opposition then led by Adrian Delia. But reality has now caught up with Abela’s optimistic predictions, made in January despite fully knowing about the dangers of new variants, which led other governments like Germany’s to impose a lockdown at that stage. One of Abela’s shortcomings exposed in the past weeks was his refusal to acknowledge mistakes and say sorry. This may well have created a chasm between the PM and segments of the electorate, especially those who have lost their beloved ones.

Moreover Abela’s refusal to call a public health emergency, despite cases being much higher than when a similar emergency was called a year ago, also suggests that he is wary of experts’ advice and wants to have the final say on the imposition and lifting of restrictions.

Still, Grech is walking on a tightrope in his focused criticism of Abela’s failures in managing the pandemic. This is because in times of a health crisis, the least thing people want to hear is divisive political bickering. That explains why Abela is harping on ‘Team Malta’ and the need for unity. It also explains why Grech is wary of any criticism of public health superintendent Charmaine Gauci. So far, the PN leader is striking a balance, but loose canons on his own side may well undermine his strategy.

3. Abela may toy again with migration football as he already did last year to take the focus away from his pandemic blues

Abela, who has already resorted to the “Malta is full-up” mantra in a bid to expose the Opposition as weak on migration, may find it hard to resist exploiting an increase in boat arrivals in Spring. While concern on migration is now at an all-time low in MaltaToday’s concerns survey, overtaken not just by COVID-19 but also by corruption and construction, past experience shows that political leaders can easily manufacture consent build around a belligerent nationalism directed at outside threats and a justified criticism of the lack of a burden-sharing EU mechanism.

This was already the case last year when Abela’s popularity was boosted by tough talk on this issue, even if the EU eventually called his bluff by refusing to negotiate under duress as migrants were held on the Captain Morgan ferry boats. A showdown with the EU over migration may well be used by Abela once again to create a powerful distraction and to take the focus away from COVID.

Yet such a strategy may be risky, especially if the European Commission once again rebuffs Abela. Moreover, the Opposition could defuse any fallout by supporting Abela’s stance, at the risk of further legitimizing xenophobia. Much depends on how far Abela will go to test the Opposition’s resolve on this highly charged and potentially divisive issue. Abela has to be extra-careful not to nourish anti-foreigner sentiments which backfire on his post-COVID recovery plans, because they hinge on the contribution of lowly-paid foreign workers.

4. The economic cost of COVID weighs on the next budget and the government’s ability to rely on its power of incumbency to dispense goodies on the eve of the election

Surely one of the greatest merits of the Labour administration is that its past economic achievements, which included a reduction in the national debt and the accumulation of a kitty, enabled Abela to sail through the stormy waters of the pandemic. But money diverted to wage supplements and to assist recovery could penalise the government’s ability to use pork-barrel generosity to boost its support before the election.

In its rush to restore normality the government could end up yielding to pressures by the developers’ lobby, exacerbating conflicts in local communities which transcend partisan divides. But the electorate’s expectations may be lower this time around and if Abela gets a trust boost by simply showing an ability to navigate the country in these difficult times.

In this way the electorate will ask: who has the steady hand in steering the country to normality? The still untested Opposition which has largely failed to renew itself or the ‘devil we know’ who has delivered growth and prosperity in the past?

5. A successful vaccine roll-out, herd immunity by September and an explosion of feel-good optimism, could restore Abela’s fortunes

If all goes well, an upbeat national mood after the achievement of herd immunity will obscure Abela’s misjudgements during the past weeks, perhaps becoming forgotten amidst a collective desire to reclaim normality and exorcize memories of the pandemic.

The contrast between vaccine shortages in other EU countries and a successful roll-out in Malta will highlight the government’s achievement in this area, especially if Malta emerges as one of the first countries in Europe to achieve herd immunity.

The post-pandemic feel-good factor could trigger a surge in consumption, boosted by the vouchers for which the government had allocated €40 million in the last budget. Still, the rush to normality can also exacerbate social inequalities, with low-income households earning a livelihood in negatively impacted sectors like tourism, having accumulated fewer savings during the pandemic, than higher-income groups who will compensate for the lost months by spending more.