No rest for Putin in ceasefire rebuff by Ukrainians

Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in February last year was a stark wake-up call for the current world order, not least a near-dormant NATO, to the security risk posed by a newly ambitious Russia.

The tide of the war has ebbed and flowed and the situation remains fluid, although there is consensus that the Ukrainian armed forces have exceeded expectations, even enjoying some spectacular successes. Western assessments about the capabilities of the Russian military were shown to have been, at least partially, overestimated.

But recent developments indicate that Moscow now seems to have switched from its initial, flawed strategy to something smarter.

In a recent analysis, Foreign Affairs, the New York-based magazine reporting on US foreign policy and international news since the 1920s, reports that the partial mobilisation of reservists ordered in September hasd strengthened Russian forces at the front. In addition to this, the bombing campaign waged against Ukrainian energy infrastructure since October is now forcing Ukraine and its allies to divert valuable resources away from the front lines in order to defend urban centres from succumbing to freezing winter weather without electricity.

Furthermore, November’s withdrawal of Russian forces from Kherson spared competent and experienced units from destruction, as well as freeing them up for deployment elsewhere.

The current casualty rates on both sides are being estimated as 1:1, it adds.

In short, the situation on the ground is fluid and hard for the man in the street to make a clear appraisal of. With this in mind, MaltaToday asked three experts in different, but related fields, to tell us what direction they expect to see the war heading in 2023.

Col David Attard (Ret’d.), a former deputy commander of the AFM, says that the West simply cannot afford to allow Ukraine to lose, while success is the only option for Putin’s survival.

“Unfortunately, there appears to be very little appetite for a ceasefire (even if temporary) or a lasting peaceful settlement of this war as both sides remain politically and militarily very much apart.  Ukraine is fighting for its very own existence as a sovereign independent state whilst Putin cannot appear to have failed in this special military operation he initiated.”

There is no evidence that either side will soon change their outlook and engage in peace talks, he said. “On the contrary, the continued Russian attacks on Ukrainian national critical infrastructure are in my opinion, the latest asymmetric attempt to destroy the will of the Ukrainian population to fight therefore attempting to bring this war to an end by declaring a Russian victory.  A country at war such as Ukraine needs the support of its general population to continue its fight. And to the credit of the Ukrainians, their resilience to this invasion has been remarkable even if somewhat of a surprise.  Therefore, I expect to witness more war until the fortunes of either warring side are decided and settled on the battlefield and a victor of sorts emerges.”   

The outcome of a major Russian military offensive that is expected to begin this coming  spring will be the key determinant of this conflict for 2023, predicts Attard.

“Today, both sides have dug in on the front lines, as they attempt to deal with the harsh winter conditions in order to conserve their existing war-fighting capabilities.  Concurrently, both sides are re-constituting their national war-fighting capabilities and re-building their armies for the upcoming offensives by training new soldiers, sourcing additional military hardware and supplies after both sides suffered significant military losses and big numbers of soldiers killed or injured in action.”    

Asked about the likelihood of the conflict spilling over into neighbouring countries, Col Attard said were this to happen, it would increase the risk of a wider war in Europe.  “This would in turn, increase the possibility of a Third World War. A situation that no-one wants to contemplate or wish for.”

“However, appeasement is not a solution either and such ‘special military operations’ cannot be successful.  And the West cannot ‘lose’ or be perceived to have lost this war as there are select principles at stake that have to be safeguarded in order not to render the world more dangerous than it is today.”

The retired officer explained that, to date, global peace has been based on a  “rules-based international order”, conceding that this approach is still “very much a work in progress.”

Conceived in the post-World War II era, the rules-based international system, led by like-minded allies and partners, gave the world significant periods of peace, prosperity, and freedom.  “However, this international order is fast coming under increasing strain in recent times.  A foremost challenge to the system is the return of great-power competition between global players such as the US and revisionist and autocratic states such as Russia and China.  The war in Ukraine is one way of dismantling this rules-based international order and creating a new world order.”

Implications on European and Maltese security

Attard says the return of war to European soil has already had a direct impact on European Security and Defence, including Malta’s. “That said, our very insular and inwards looking approach to security and defence has rendered us rather dismissive of Europe’s and our security and defence needs. Our present security policy coupled with the most recent investments made in the Armed Forces of Malta have remained tied to one single issue i.e. the issue of migration.  There is no real focus on defence and our wider defence needs.”

“At a European level, there is a degree of consensus that Europe needs to bolster its economic resilience further, it must end its energy dependence on Russia and it must invest more in its defence and security,” Attard continues. But the invasion has also highlighted additional key issues. One of them is Europe’s visible dependance on the United States to safeguard European security and defence. “Without the massive US military and political aid and support,  Ukraine would have succumbed to the special military operation within a few weeks. These circumstances have provided significant food for thought and reinforced the notion that despite all the political statements made by Europe, the continent remains very much dependent on the US for its very own security and defence.”      

This, Attard says, raises the question of how long will the US continue to show this same level of commitment towards European Security and defence for, particularly within a context where its global dominance continues to be challenged by the emerging might of China. “Will the US shift its focus towards China and place Europe on the backburner?  How would Europe respond to a repeat scenario similar to the one in Ukraine where US political and  military support is lacking?”

He underlines the need for Europe to review its military spending, focusing on investment gaps, and to take initiatives to strengthen the European defence industrial and technological base in order to render it more capable and independent.  “A stronger and militarily more capable Europe that takes a more active role in its own security and defence is a must going forward.  Such capacity building must begin in earnest immediately and before it may be too late.  The EU must also achieve, in full, complementarity with NATO in order to create the right conditions for the US to remain committed towards the European Security and Defence architecture without perceiving it to be such a burden.”   

On the diplomatic front, Dr Valentina Cassar, an academic and lecturer who focuses on US and Russian security policies, European Security and Defence and nuclear politics, highlighted the importance of keeping the channels for dialogue with Russia open.

“Russia’s retreat from the global norms and international liberal order and the strain in relations between Russia and the West and indeed between Russia and Ukraine were not new to 2022, but date back almost a decade, and most notably to 2014 when Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula,” Cassar told MaltaToday.

She argues that the war has entrenched the cracks within the international system that have long been present.  “This was an international system where most states were more focused on domestic political and economic challenges and whose stamina for defending the international liberal order was strained.”

However, Dr. Cassar notes, the war has galvanised convictions in support of Ukraine and the defence of democracy, sovereignty, and the rule of law.  One result of this is higher than expected support for Ukraine by the international community,  she says, “particularly higher than expected by Russia, and the solidarity and collaboration between members of the transatlantic community, Europeans and other allies has been revived.”

“All this has bolstered the remarkable resistance shown by the Ukrainian people and their government, and strained Russia’s expectations for a rapid war and swift collapse of Ukraine’s control over its territories.”

Dr. Cassar said that the Ukrainians’ staunch resistance and spirited defence since 2014 indicates that the war will likely extend into a stalemate and a protracted conflict “that unfortunately has the possibility to extend over an indefinite period of time.”

She expects Russia’s efforts to remain focused on maintaining control of territories within the East of Ukraine whilst also weakening Ukraine’s capabilities and morale by targeting its infrastructure.  “This, as we have seen, is particularly pertinent in the context of a cold winter, where energy has been a predominant target.“

But Russia also faces domestic political, logistical and infrastructural challenges, whereby it must sustain its war effort both in terms of manpower, capabilities, and domestic political support which may be further strained by the economic repercussions of the war and subsequent sanctions.  In this respect, Russia’s domestic political stability will be a crucial factor that may determine the extent of Russia’s engagement in Ukraine, Dr. Cassar predicts.

In the meantime, she points out, Russia has also been focused on shoring up its own bilateral and international alignments, short of direct support, in the course of the war. “In this respect, the maintenance of Russia’s relationship with China will be increasingly important.”

Ukraine’s’ resistance will continue to depend on sustaining morale as well as guaranteeing continued support from its allies, particularly in terms of capabilities and weapons from the United States and other NATO allies.

“Over the past ten months we have witnessed a revived raison d’etre within NATO, whereby the alliance has seen a galvanised coherence amongst its members, but also the faster accession process for Finland and Sweden.”  This, Dr. Cassar says, is a reflection of the wider debate on European security that is taking place both within and outside NATO.

“For Malta and other neutral states within the EU, this has led to much debate over how we define our neutrality, what neutrality means within the current world order, and how to constructively reconcile this with the reality of our integration within the broader transatlantic and European frameworks.”

For the coming year, Dr. Cassar said she would expect more focused dialogue amongst EU member states aimed towards continuing to support Ukraine and the defence of democracy and sovereignty through initiatives that will complement the provision of capabilities and infrastructure that larger states are able to provide.  “I believe we will also see discussion that is more focused on providing assistance, whilst also maintaining national capabilities in the long term.”

Over the past months, many observers and states have also emphasised the importance of dialogue and negotiation, said Dr. Cassar, pointing out that recently, Putin himself had indicated an openness to the possibility of peace talks.  “Whilst the likelihood of peace talks – or their success – between Russia and Ukraine may be slim due to the entrenched demands of both sides, we should keep in mind the importance of dialogue between other states, in particular that between the United States and Russia, particularly regarding nuclear arms control and the renewal of the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty between the two superpowers.”

MaltaToday also spoke to Robert Young Pelton, a veteran investigative journalist and documentary film director who specialises in high-risk reporting from war zones for his view on how the conflict will pan out this year. The Canadian-American expressed cautious optimism for Ukraine’s cause, and that a ceasefire was probable in 2023.

“Ukraine is winning at great cost and with the intense support of America and Europe. As our congress shifts to the right, the level of support for Ukraine might shrink and tough questions on why America is paying Ukraine to furiously grind down the Russian army will be asked.  Putin will insist that he has won - his internal messaging seems very fluid - since he will still be clinging on to bits of Ukraine’s east and Crimea.”

“Zelensky may face some tough questions from Ukrainians about when life can return to normal.  There will likely be a ceasefire in 2023 while both sides work furiously to undermine each other using clandestine and non-military means. The only difference is that Putin has turned Russia into a pariah state for investors, tourism and sales of natural wealth.”

Young Pelton says he believes that Ukraine will ultimately benefit from their now clear identification as part of Europe and the West.

“But ultimately this 8-year-old war is not over yet. For Putin at least.”