Five hurdles in Sandra Gauci’s obstacle race 

ADPD chairperson Sandra Gauci clearly spelled out “the way forward” for her party when interviewed by MaltaToday last week. 

“More grounded; more down to earth; and closer to the people... especially, the working-class people,” she told her interviewer. 

She also turned the tables on Labour for what she described a ‘classist’ attitude in “governing only for a select few” while “the rest of us have to bear the brunt, of the greed of this select few”. 

These words suggest an ideological reorientation towards a more populist left-wing approach, which reflects growing anger at inequality and the uncontrollable power of fat cats. 

But her statement also suggests a shift in party strategy from one aimed at disgruntled middle-class voters in more affluent localities to a more inclusive appeal directed at working class and Labour leaning voters. 

She has also unambiguously come out in favour of the decriminalisation of abortion, thus departing from her party’s past balancing act on an issue where it often found itself chasing with the hounds and running with the hares.   

She also candidly spoke on a need to rebrand the party. This clarity and frankness come across as a refreshing change. 

But to achieve results Gauci still faces five major hurdles which make her task precariously difficult. 

1. An Expired brand 

The name ADPD itself is evocative of decline rather than hope. Throughout its 34-year existence, the party has practically retained the same share of the vote in general elections - hovering between 0.7% and 1.8% - while losing all representation at local level. 

The Partit Demokratiku, which lent its name to AD after the merger, had succeeded in electing two MPs in 2017 (admittedly on a Nationalist ticket) but both left the party orphaned just before its remnants were absorbed by AD. 

Gauci now finds herself selling a combo of two products; one long past its expiry date (AD) and another which died in still birth (PD). 

Moreover, in the absence of a brand overhaul which must include a name change, Gauci will end up selling her wares from a shop which has long lost interest in selling anything, except offering comfort for the already converted.  But the whole point of being a political party rather than a glorified NGO is to get elected in a position where policies can be changed.  

2. The Metsola factor 

Sandra Gauci only has a few months to set her own house in order before finding herself facing the electorate in an MEP contest which can either make her of break her. One factor which may impact on AD’s fortunes is Roberta Metsola’s candidature on the PN list. 

Metsola could become a magnet for the kind of middle of the road voters like those who had voted for Arnold Cassola in the 2004 EP election. One sure advantage for Metsola is the respect she has earned during her term as president of the EU parliament; a post which gives her the gravitas which the AD leader will find hard to match. 

In this sense, Gauci’s strategy of directly appealing to disgruntled Labour voters makes sense as these are the least likely to consider switching to Metsola and therefore to the PN. 

Gauci’s affability and socialist orientation may help, which is why she must project herself as an insurgency candidate. The problem though with this strategy is that disgruntled Labour voters may well prefer registering their protest by not voting rather than by voting for a small party. 

Gauci may end up being stuck between a rock and a hard place; between the seductive appeal of Metsola on one side and the anger fuelling abstention on the other side. 

3. The abstentionist party 

Angry and disgruntled voters have another option to voting a third party; that of not voting for anyone. That option may be more appealing to voters who prefer punishing the major parties by staying at home instead of voting for parties which have no realistic chance of winning. The latest MT survey shows that 16% of Labour voters in 2022 and 31% of 16-to-35-year-olds are now intent on not voting. 

In theory this should be an opportunity for third parties, but the risk is that for these voters it is becoming more “cool” not to vote than to vote for a sure loser. Moreover, to succeed in making inroads in red territory, Gauci will also have to re-invent AD’s playbook, which in past MEP elections was based on a template aimed at disgruntled pale blue voters.   

Gauci can make the argument that nothing will ever change with abstention. But it was fear of losing votes to abstention rather than to ADPD, that prompted Robert Abela’s pre-election u-turn on the proposed yacht marina in Marsaskala. 

4. Civic activism is sexier 

The emergence of a vibrant civil society, where movements like Moviment Graffitti are perceived to be more effective than AD in delivering results, raises questions on the raison d’etre of a party founded in 1989 when it filled a void in civic activism. 

Furthermore, to succeed Gauci needs a committed team of activists who tirelessly campaign for the party during and in between campaigns. But this may be difficult considering that the activists closest to AD’s values, are already committed in other campaigns. 

AD must try and convince civil society activists, that participation in elections, gives added value to their work.     

One way for AD to gain the trust of voters would be to focus on realisable targets like getting elected in a few local councils in which its representatives can make a difference in daily life and proceed to replicate the same success in a favourable district in general elections.    

One should not forget that two of AD’s most effective leaders; Harry Vassallo and Michael Briguglio had both served as local councillors with the latter serving in the council while serving as party leader.  

One positive trait in Gauci is that she is not constantly nagging on the unfairness of the electoral system. What she needs to do now is to find ways of using the system to her party’s advantage and fight the perception of AD as a loser. But to get there she needs to brush up her own ‘all over the place’ image.    

5. Gauci still lacks gravitas 

Sandra Gauci who until some time ago was mainly known for her ‘satirical’ ABS vlog, comes across as a good debater and an approachable person, but still lacks the kind of gravitas expected from a political party leader. 

Modern politics is based on  instagrammable images revolving around smart leaders who project likeability and exude confidence in their competence and convictions. Even comedians like Zelensky and Beppe Grillo have succeeded but only thanks to a good pr machine.  ADPD must think out of the box, avoid pointless rituals like regular Saturday morning press conferences which only serve to amplify the idiosyncrasies of party spokespersons and focus on reaching out to communities, and crucially avoid the image of being a voice in the desert.  But to get there, AD needs its own army of creative campaigners inspired by a vision which they can also sell to others both in person and online. But it falls on the party leader to incarnate this vision.

Who were AD’s past leaders?

Wenzu Mintoff (1989-1998) 

Expelled from the Labour Party in 1989 after denouncing the corrupt and violent elements which had hijacked it, the 30-year-old socialist idealist, found himself leading a motley crew of environmentalists and human rights activists whom he represented in parliament. His collegial style of leadership in a party dominated by strong and charismatic personalities like Joe (Peppi) Azzopardi, Toni Abela (also expelled from the Labour Party alongside Mintoff) and Saviour Balzan enabled AD to jolt the system in the 1992 general election. The party won 4,200 votes (1.7%) nationwide, a success followed by the election of several local councillors in the next years. But following internal troubles and defections, the party disappointed in subsequent elections in 1996 and 1998 when its support contracted. Subsequently Mintoff returned to the Labour fold, contesting as an MEP, and was appointed judge by the Muscat administration. True to his roots, Mintoff is leaving a legacy in landmark judgments in which he showed government no fear or favour. 

Harry Vassallo (1998-2008) 

The charismatic, bold but sometimes quirky Harry Vassallo re-energised the party, opening it up to a new influx of activists and aligning it to the pro-EU membership camp, thus gaining visibility as a strong non-Nationalist voice in the IVA campaign. But the party’s appeal for vote transfers from the PN in the 2003 electoral campaign was solemnly rebuked by Eddie Fenech Adami on the eve of the election in which AD fell below the 1% mark. Yet banking on a reserve of good will among floaters and pale blue voters, the party scored its best electoral result in the first MEP elections in 2004 when Arnold Cassola garnered more than 20,000 votes. Subsequently the party invested most of its energies in campaigning for a referendum on rent reform which failed to capture the public’s imagination. Vassallo resigned after failing to make any inroads in the 2008 general election, albeit with the satisfaction of denying an absolute majority for the second Gonzi administration.   

Arnold Cassola (2008-2009) 

Arnold Cassola came close to being elected an MEP with 23,000 first count votes in MEP elections held in 2004. After a short stint as a left-wing MP in Romano Prodi’s coalition in neighbouring Italy, Arnold Cassola, came back to lead the party in the hope of repeating his 2004 success. Instead, the party only managed 5,802 votes in the 2009 European Parliament election in a bitter disappointment which saw Cassola resigning.    

Michael Briguglio (2009-2013) 

Briguglio a sociologist who in his younger days had co-founded Moviment Graffitti, was the first AD leader not to hail from the generation of co-founders in 1989. As leader he came across as a smart and effective communicator, earning favourable ratings for his strong performance in debates with Lawrence Gonzi and Joseph Muscat. He also pushed AD’s boundaries on themes like full marriage equality capturing the public mood after the divorce referendum. Yet, despite achieving AD’s best result in a general election when the party obtained 5,506 votes in 2013, Briguglio resigned immediately afterwards, leaving the party orphaned and with no succession plan. He unsuccessfully contested the European Parliament election with the PN in 2019.

Arnold Cassola (2013-2017) 

Re-electing Cassola who had already served as leader in 2008, was a fall-back position which amplified the party’s failure to attract a new generation of potential leaders. Moreover, Cassola’s second term as chairperson coincided with a heightened polarisation which left little room for AD to wiggle. AD also had to face competition from the Democratic Party whose candidates were fielded in the PN’s list as part of the Forza Nazzjonali coalition. This formula did earn two seats for the PD but did not stop Labour from thrashing the opposition in an election which also saw AD gaining an abysmal result (2,564 votes). 

Carmel Cacopardo (2017-2023) 

Carmel Cacopardo was the obvious fall back in terms of political experience after the 2017 election. An architect by profession he lacked charisma. The former PN candidate and president had stood up against the arrogance of Lorry Sant in the 1980s, breaking ranks with the PN over the environmental policies of the Gonzi administration. Cacopardo presented himself as an interim leader whose focus was to prepare a new generation of leaders.  Despite his lacklustre performance in debates, Cacopardo still managed to double the party’s vote share from a miserable 0.8% in 2017 to 1.6%, (4,747 votes) in 2022, leaving AD exactly where it was 33 years before.