What are we changing in our survey?

As we enter a fresh political cycle in anticipation of the upcoming mid-term local and European elections scheduled for next June, MaltaToday is refining its polling methodology while also improving the presentation of results. 

Our aim remains steadfast: to furnish our readers with a clearer understanding of current political dynamics while steadfastly upholding accuracy and reliability. 

In previous surveys, we refrained from predicting the voting behaviour of those respondents who remained undecided. However, we are now adopting a new methodology that allows us to forecast how these respondents might cast their votes based on their responses to other questions. 

Our survey framework will still be based on stratified random sampling, accounting for factors such as region, age, and gender to closely mirror the demographics of Malta. However, we are introducing logistic and linear regression techniques to provide a calculated estimation for missing data points stemming from non-responses. 

To facilitate this change, we have expanded our questionnaire to include a broader range of political and demographic questions. This includes the Government Performance Barometer and questions probing the direction of the country and personal financial outlook, in addition to assessments of trust in political leaders and voting intentions. 

The adoption of the imputation method aligns with established practices both locally and internationally. This approach offers our readers a comprehensive electoral snapshot, showcasing the percentage of each party's support among those who are intent on voting in a general election. Recognising the significance of non-voters in our political landscape, we will also provide readers with a segmented breakdown of this category, taking into account demographic variables such as age, education and region. 

Over the past two decades, MaltaToday's surveys have consistently and accurately predicted the outcomes of general elections since 2008, along with various other electoral events such as MEP elections. We take pride in our pioneering role in regularly disseminating opinion polls, setting a benchmark for other media outlets to follow. 

MaltaToday remains unwavering in its commitment to transparency and accountability. We will continue refining our methodology to offer a more nuanced reflection of political trends.