Looking Back 2023: An identikit of the non-voter

In three consecutive  MaltaToday surveys carried out in autumn, a third of respondents have declared their intention not to vote if an election is held now.

If this happens in a general election the turnout will go down to a historic low of 69%. The turnout in the 2022 general election stood at 86%.

Non-voters in autumn 2023 increased sharply when compared to December 2022 when 22% declared their intention not to vote.

The decline in turnout is also confirmed in other surveys. A Times of Malta survey published in October had put the percentage of non-voters at 28%.

Moreover, the decline in turnout corresponded with a sharp decline in Labour’s fortunes in a clear indication that disgruntlement among Labour voters has fuelled abstention.

This abnormally high abstention rate may well reflect electoral fatigue almost two years after the general election. Party strategists expect the abstention rate to reduce when the electoral machines of both major parties are set in motion closer to a general election. At that point the choice is not an abstract one but a decision on who should govern the country.

But the trend may well persist in the European Parliament and local council elections due next June, where voters would not be choosing which party governs the country. These elections have often been used by the electorate to blow a raspberry without having to worry on choosing the lesser evil.

Who are they?

To get a more precise idea of who the non-voters are, MaltaToday is extracting a profile based on the average percentage in each demographic group. The findings are based on the results of 2023’s last three surveys.

The picture emerging from this analysis is that non-voters are more likely to be male, under 50 years of age, have a higher level of education, hail from the Western and Southeastern regions, earn a monthly income of between €1,000 and €3,000 and voted Labour in 2022.

On a political level the analysis shows that an average of 30% of Labour voters in 2022 will not vote if an election is held now, compared to 20% of PN voters.  In this case the percentage of Labour voters who would not vote varied between 26% in November and 34% in December.

On the other hand, the percentage of PN voters who would not vote varied between 14% in October and 24% in November. This suggests that although both parties are losing votes to abstention, Labour is being penalised more by this phenomenon.

Labour’s decline in support from election levels is mostly attributable to its lower retention rate of 2022 voters.

Yet, the PN is not benefitting from Labour’s mid-term blues. Disgruntled Labourites are parking themselves in neutral territory rather than shifting towards the PN.  Moreover, the PN keeps turning off a substantial percentage of its own voters.

And while it is not so surprising  that a party which has been in government for the past decade is faced with disgruntlement, abstention within the PN suggests that the party’s brand is so toxic that it not only fails to attract voters from the other side who prefer ‘not voting’ but it also keeps losing from its already restricted pool of voters.

In fact, in a situation where a third of Labour voters are intent on not voting, the PN would be clearly in the lead had it retained its 2022 voters.  This means that if non-voters start returning to Labour, the PN could well end up in the same situation it was back in the 2022 general election.

Why is Labour losing more to abstention?

One reason why abstention is now lower among PN voters and higher among PL voters, is that the Opposition party has already lost heavily to abstention in past elections. This means the PN simply has less votes to shed. In this sense an obese Labour has far more excess fat to lose than an underweight PN.

In the 2022 election the PN had already shed 12,463 votes from its 2017 vote count, while Labour had ‘only’ lost 8,269 votes from the previous election. But the fact that an anorexic PN keeps losing votes to abstention is further confirmation of the state it is in.

The analysis also shows that an average of 63% of respondents who had not voted in 2022 are still keen on not voting now. This suggests not voting is not just a momentary rant but can persist over time.  Moreover, this is also an indication that the PN still struggles to win back the voters it lost to abstention in 2022.

Under 50-year-olds more likely not to vote

The surveys also confirm past trends that younger voters are more likely to consider abstention. But over the past months abstention has also made inroads in all age groups except those over 65 years of age.

On average 40% of respondents aged between 16 and 35, and 39% of those aged between 36 and 50 will not vote. This suggests that abstention is not limited to disillusioned younger voters but includes a significant segment of voters at the peak of their working lives and who are more likely to have dependent children.

Also significant is the fact that abstention remains at a relatively high 31% even among 51- to 65-year-olds and only falls significantly among over 65-year-olds, where it dips to 14%.

On average males are also more likely to declare their intention not to vote. While abstention among male voters hovers around 33%, the abstention rate among female voters falls to 29%.

Cutting across the board

In the past a higher abstention rate in affluent PN leaning districts suggested that non-voters prevailed among the more educated and wealthier.

But although abstention remains strong among the tertiary educated and in high income brackets, the latest surveys indicate an increase in abstention in other social categories including the lower middle class.

This suggests that non-voters are a very heterogenous group.

The analysis shows that the abstention rate is highest among post-secondary educated voters i.e., respondents who continued their education after secondary level but who have not attended university. This category includes people in vocational and technical jobs.

The  high level of abstention in this category is very worrying for Labour which since 2008 had made major inroads among post-secondary educated voters.

This  suggests that abstention is not a preserve of more affluent middle-class voters who are more likely to have a university degree and historically lean towards the PN.

In fact, while before 2022 abstention peaked among the tertiary educated, it now peaks among the post-secondary educated.

While on average 39% of the post-secondary educated will not be voting, the percentage falls to 35% among the tertiary educated and to 29% among the secondary educated.

Abstention is lowest (14%) among those with a primary level of education who are mostly over 65 years of age.

A breakdown by income shows that 33% of those earning a monthly income of between €1,000 and €2,000, and between €2,001 and €3,000 will not vote.  Similarly, 32% of those earning between €3,001 and €4,000 will also not vote.  But lower rates of abstention are registered among those earning less than €1,000 (27.1%) and those earning more than €4,000 (23%).

This also suggests that abstention is stronger in the wide range of people earning between €1,001 and €4,000 but is significantly lower among high-income earners and low-income earners.

Malaise in the West and the Southeast

The analysis also shows that abstention is slightly higher in the Labour leaning Southeastern region which includes electoral districts where the PL made strong inroads since 2013, practically decimating the PN’s presence.

The higher abstention is the Southeast suggests trouble in Labour’s heartlands.

In this region abstention reaches the 34% mark, just one point higher than in the Western region, which includes PN leaning localities like Attard and Labour leaning ones like Zebbug. In contrast, abstention hovers between 28% and 30% in all the other regions.

Inflation, foreigners are triggers for abstention

A survey held in October showed that the cost of living is the top concern of current non-voters (36%) followed by the large number of foreigners in Malta (30%), traffic (9%), construction (7%) and corruption (5%) .

This largely mirrors the concerns of the general population, with the only difference being that concern on inflation is 10 points higher among non-voters. Concern on foreigners is also five points higher among non-voters while concern on corruption is slightly lower.

This suggests that discontentment over inflation and concern on the growing presence of foreigners, are the main triggers for abstention. Yet the squeeze of inflation may also change the optics of these voters, making them more likely to see government in a bad light whenever faced with allegations of corruption and abuse of power.

Surveys have also shown that non-voters are more likely to think that the country is going in the wrong direction.

In November, 77% of non-voters thought the country was going in the wrong direction compared to 65% nationally.

Non-voters are also more likely to give the government a negative rating. In the past three surveys non-voters have given the government an average of 2.3 points out of 5, compared to a national average of 2.6 points.

All this suggests that non-voters are disenchanted and winning them back won’t be easy.  But the surveys also suggest that non-voters are also swayed by the same issues impacting the rest of the population and therefore do not constitute an ‘elite’ group of voters with their own niche concerns.

This also makes it harder for third parties that fail to address bread and butter issues to make inroads in this category.

It may well be the case that rather than being a potential pool of votes for existing third parties, non-voters are traditional voters who are parking themselves in neutral territory until they are presented by a viable choice between the two established parties.

What we don’t know

While surveys indicate that non-voters are a heterogonous group, they offer no indication on whether 2022 Labour voters intent on not voting are traditional hard core PL supporters – and very unlikely to even consider voting PN - or floaters, who may have given their vote to the PN in the past but are not yet convinced to do the same thing again.

This underlines the risk for any PN strategy relying on a high abstention rate among Labour voters.

The  fear of a PN victory may well push some of these voters, especially if they are hard core Labour supporters disillusioned by the current leadership, back to Labour’s fold.

Even if the PN fails to win these voters over it must ensure they do not feel threatened by a change in government. On the other hand, by trying to pitch for traditional Labour voters, the PN may well turn off switchers who were attracted to Muscat’s Labour simply because it had moved to the political centre and in some instances to the centre-right.

What the surveys indicate is that abstention is no longer restricted to educated middle class voters motivated by concerns on governance and the environment but is spreading among other categories driven to abstention by falling living standards.

In this sense, one reason why the PN remains behind may well be that a significant portion of the electorate still does not see the party as an alternative government which offers them a better life.