Looking forward 2024: Robert Abela’s headaches in the new year

Robert Abela’s relatively short political career has been far from a walk in the park since becoming prime minister in 2020. 

From a global pandemic that took the world by storm just a few months into his premiership to a war in Europe that sent energy prices skyrocketing; from rampant inflation to the fallout of political scandals inherited from his predecessor; from homegrown disgruntlement to government u-turns; Abela has had a rough ride indeed. 

After a tumultuous year marked by seemingly endless scandals and the emergence of his party’s and government’s soft underbelly, MaltaToday examines what headaches await the Prime Minister in 2024.

1. Joseph Muscat and the Vitals inquiry 

The magisterial inquiry into the hospitals concession that may recommend criminal action against former prime minister Joseph Muscat is surely the elephant in the room. 

After the Court of Appeal confirmed the decision to annul the hospitals contract, attention turned to the inquiry led by Magistrate Gabriella Vella, which was initiated after Repubblika asked for it in 2019. 

The investigation is examining the potential for criminal charges against former Labour ministers Chris Cardona, Konrad Mizzi, and Edward Scicluna regarding the hospital concession awarded to Vitals Global Healthcare in 2015. Additionally, the inquiry is delving into the actions of former prime minister Joseph Muscat, particularly following media reports suggesting he received consultancy payments from foreign companies associated with Steward Health Care after concluding his political career. Muscat vehemently denies any wrongdoing, asserting that all the work he undertook is legitimate and well-documented. 

The conclusion of the inquiry is highly anticipated, especially as former PN MP Jason Azzopardi hinted at “big news” that would lead to a “political earthquake” in Facebook comments. In October 2023, MaltaToday had also reported that Labour MPs are bracing for the worst case scenario. Privately, Labour MPs have acknowledged that any damning conclusions will have serious ramifications for the party and the country. 

Abela will be walking a tight rope if the magistrate recommends that criminal action be taken against Muscat. On the one hand he will argue that the institutions should be allowed to function without interference but on the other hand he will have to face Labour’s angry grassroots who are still enamoured with Muscat. 

The Vitals inquiry will certainly weigh heavily on Abela in 2024 and could cause him many a sleepless night.

2. Choosing the next president 

President George Vella’s tenure expires in April and for the first time in history, the successor will require a two-thirds majority in parliament to be selected for the post. 

Robert Abela has already had a taste of what a two-third majority requirement looks like during the never-ending saga to appoint a new standards czar in 2023. After government and the Opposition failed to agree on a name, government resorted to a legal amendment to introduce an anti-deadlock mechanism. The same solution to bypass any impasse, however, cannot be used for the president since the appointment is regulated by the Constitution which will require a two-thirds majority to be amended. 

Reaching consensus with Bernard Grech is going to be crucial despite the frosty relations between the two. 

In 2022, Abela shut down rumours that ex-prime minister Lawrence Gonzi was being touted to be the next president. A former prime minister and party leader cannot be a unifying figure that one expects from the presidency, Abela had said. 

Meanwhile, last September MaltaToday reported that PN leader Bernard Grech informed his parliamentary group that he will be presenting three names to Abela when discussions on Vella’s successor get underway. These names are former PN minister Dolores Cristina, Caritas’ PR and fundraising officer Marica Cassar and serving magistrate Joe Mifsud. 

Whether or not Grech will truly propose these names to Abela when the time comes remains to be seen. 

Several names have been floated in political circles as possible contendors to replace George Vella. But despite the names being thrown around, there seems to be no clear indication of who the next president will be. What is certain though is that a deadlock similar to that experienced in 2023, will give Abela one more headache to deal with in the new year.

3. Inflation 

Despite government’s generous subsidies to keep the price of energy, fuel, grains and animal feed stable, the cost of living has eaten away at spending power. Prices of food and services, in particular, have continued to rise biting hard into people’s pockets. This year has seen the price of fresh milk increase twice for a 25% increase. 

The situation is expected to persist in 2024 and possibly be made worse by the higher cost of transport and logisitics as a result of a new EU-wide carbon tax on shipping.

The rising cost of living will continue to erode family incomes and this will be a major headache for the Prime Minister going into the June European Parliament election.

4. Financial strains 

What else can be a guaranteed way to keep the Prime Minister on his toes other than the economy? Malta’s economy has so far managed to keep its head above water and has outperformed most other EU economies. 

Abela’s government has managed to shield consumers and businesses from record increases in energy prices through hefty subsidies. Government aims to spend some €320 million in fuel subsidies every year until at least 2026, or until Malta fixes its electricity supply, as Finance Minister Clyde Caruana said in the budget.  

These subsidies represent one of the largest strains on public finances, drastically reducing government’s flexibility should another crisis arise. But there will also be the European Commission breathing down Malta’s neck in 2024 and beyond as EU spending rules become enforceable once again. This will be a headache, although more flexibility in the rules agreed to in December make it a less throbbing issue unless government goes on a wild spending spree.

5. The unknown 

Although political and financial woes are expected in any year for a prime minister, Robert Abela’s 2024 might also be marked by the events outside of anyone’s predictions. 

In 2023, no one could have guessed that the tragic death of Jean Paul Sofia would lead Abela and his party to one of their lowest points, ignoring the calls of a grieving family for a public inquiry, only to immediately change their mind.  

Likewise, no one could have predicted that an American couple’s short-lived holiday in Malta would lead to the biggest step towards abortion rights the country had ever seen, only to disappear into the void following amendemnts that made Abela look spineless in the eyes of liberals. 

Whatever the source of Abela’s headaches in 2024, many will be looking to his reactions, which have oscillated from putting pressure on MPs to resign in the face of scandal such as the Rosianne Cutajar affair, to putting up a solid defence of questionable customer care practices as was the case involving the driving test scandal that happened on Ian Borg’s watch.