Looking forward 2024: Does Metsola’s Brussels train stop at Malta?

It is hard to deny the arresting charisma of Roberta Metsola, a young politician who seems to represent, in more ways than one, a kind of ‘European dream’.

Ten years ago, she had been the youngest elected MEP from Malta, first in a casual election and then on her own steam. Today, in her role as president of the European Parliament, she represents the good will of the EU’s only directly elected institution: evangelising for Ukraine’s accession, committedly pitted against Putin’s threat to the EU, and until a few weeks ago, saluting an immigration pact that crowns over a decade of resolutions, talks, and political negotiations.

With clear memories of Malta’s pre-accession days, her own coming-of-age is also part and parcel of this European dream. Studying law at the College d’Europe in Bruges, active in student politics at home and in Europe, a former employee of both Malta’s permanent representation to the EU and formerly legal advisor to EU’s High Representative Catherine Ashton, and married to a fellow EPP member (Ukko, who also campaigned in Finland to become MEP, without success), a lot about Metsola has been forged within the Brussels ecosystem.

Metsola today represents a very particular Europeanism, wedded to a political centre of compromise, soft conservatism, and firmly ensconced in the EPP traditions of giving wide berth to enterprise over social equity. But more than anything else, it is her persona, networking, and cross-party support, that has crowned her time at the helm of EP as successor of David Sassoli.

Her popularity at home and in Brussels has only added to the speculation as to whether she will succour her ailing Nationalist Party at home, a messianic return to the unsophisticated domestic political scene in Malta. Like so many Europeanists who left Brussels to become prime ministers – Romano Prodi in Italy, or Donald Tusk in Poland – Metsola has what it takes to resurrect her party with adventurous policies and a dash of glamour and hope for the future.

But will she?

In 2022, she was elected by 74% of the European Parliament’s plenary, reflecting the huge consensus she commands among Christian democrats, socialists and liberals. This kind of popularity is reason enough for her being touted for a second term in office. It’s not set in stone – the powerful EPP would rather have the second half of this five-year power-sharing deal with the socialists.

So which way up, is the question so many ask of Roberta Metsola. For a return to Maltese politics can only be considered with a seamless transition to leader of the PN.

If the PN regain the third seat in the coming European elections, the Maltese playbook prescribes that Bernard Grech should dig his heels in with a stab at the next general elections in 2027.

Metsola herself cannot be seen as perpetuating the party’s toxic brand for factionalism – the ideal scenario could only be one where Grech is willing to step down and Metsola is ready to take over, enabling Grech to step down on a high note, and winning a smooth transition. But a bloodless coup for Metsola might only be possible if Grech fails spectacularly at the next elections.

When in 2023 she addressed, in a somewhat muted and almost politically neutral way, the Nationalist masses at the PN’s Independence Day celebrations, all eyes were on her – and not on the tried, tested and already defeated party leader Bernard Grech.

Metsola cannot make any moves before the coming elections: she will contest again under the PN banner to renew her term as MEP, and she cannot afford to let her party sink deeper into irrelevance. But it also shows that she may still be undecided on her future ambitions, which would also disappoint all those who invest their trust in her in the hope she would answer what they see as a call from destiny.

Metsola’s greatest strength so far has been that of sticking to a script which appeals to the least common denominator while still sounding uplifting; one which allows different segments of the PN’s complex electorate to conjure up their own Metsola.  Even in her role as EU parliament president, she can strike a note by moving from registers of bland eurospeak to refreshing and bold declarations.

The question now would be how much of a more modern, dynamic and liberal party leader can Metsola truly be. Is she in synch with environmental and social priorities? Will she empower women to take on more positions of power?

Or will she start waving a tattered flag of Catholic ‘exceptionalism’ on matters like reproductive rights, ever after signing the Simone Veil pact guaranteeing abortion rights to women? As a politician who credits herself as having always stood for “fact-based not identity politics”, Metsola’s Europeanist destiny should free her up from the provincial shackles that make Maltese politics such a confrontational arena.

In Brussels, where it is the strength of the argument that counts, Metsola built majorities across various parties. To return to Malta and settle for its zero-sum power game would undermine the talent that has made her such a force of nature in Brussels. But she could well teach the Nationalists, who saw EU accession as the island’s ‘Manifest Destiny’, that rather than use it as cudgel against the forces of progress, conservatism can also be courageous, enlightened, and cooperative – something that is often lacking in the Maltese political scene.