Muscat clearly in the lead as Gonzi gains lost ground

Opposition Leader Joseph Muscat still enjoys a healthy 7-point lead over Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi but his trust rating has slipped from the record levels registered in a June poll held in the aftermath of the divorce referendum.

Compared to a previous survey conducted immediately after the divorce referendum, Muscat registers a 7-percentage point drop in support while Lawrence Gonzi gained 4 points. 

With regards to voting intentions, the PL registers even heavier losses with its support dropping from 37.5% in June to 29% now. But the party still enjoys a strong 9-point lead over the PN.

The survey also shows the PN managing to keep a larger percentage of its 2008 general election voters, in a clear indication that the PN has started to consolidate its position among its core supporters. 

The survey also shows a lack of trust in Labour’s financial and foreign policies, with the PN leading Labour in both policy areas.

This emerges from a MaltaToday survey conducted among 400 respondents held between last Monday and Wednesday.

Muscat more popular than Labour

While Muscat is trusted by 34.5% of voters – practically the same level of support he enjoyed last March but 7 points less than in June – his party has seen its support dropped to 29%.  

This means that Muscat is 6 points more popular than his own party – a result which indicates that a part of the electorate identifies with the Labour leader, but not with his party.

Muscat lead over Gonzi, which had increased, from 10 points in March to 18 points in June has been narrowed to 7 percentage points. 

Muscat’s losses come in the wake of a 4-point gain for Gonzi and an increase in undecided respondents.

As regards voting intentions the Labour Party, which in June had scored its best result in the past two years, reaching the 38% mark has now seen its support shrink by 9 points.

Gonzi’s recovering support

Both the PN and Gonzi have registered a 4-point increase in support. 

This is an indication that Gonzi has recovered the level of support enjoyed in March before the divorce referendum, even if he is still trailing behind Muscat. 

Gonzi’s party still registers a low 20% support, which is 4 points higher than its score in June, but 3 points lower its score in March.

The March survey, which also coincided with events in Libya, had seen a spike in support for Gonzi and the PN, which previously hovered between 15% and 20%.

Like Muscat, Gonzi is also more trusted than his own party.  While 27.5% trust Gonzi, only 20% would presently vote for the PN.  

Despite registering an increase in ratings, Gonzi remains an unpopular Prime Minister.

Gonzi’s performance in his job is only judged positively by 24% of respondents – 3 points up from last year. 

The level of approval is still a far cry from the 38% of respondents who judged his performance as Prime Minister positively in September 2008. 

The survey also shows the number of those judging his performance negatively has also increased by 4 points. And in a sign of growing polarisation, the survey registers an 8-point drop in the number of those who judge his performance as ‘fair’.

The small surge in support for Gonzi has coincided with the Libyan crisis and the toppling of the Libyan dictator, which was accompanied by a propaganda overdrive, by the PN media to link Labour with the Gaddafi regime. 

PN blocking voters’ haemorrhage

The survey shows the PN losing fewer votes to Labour than previous surveys and retaining more of its 2008 votes. This could be an indication that the party’s drive on Libya and the economy have paid off among traditional PN voters.

The percentage of PN voters in 2008 who would vote Labour has dropped from 12% in June to 7% now one of the lowest in recent surveys. 

On the other hand, the PN now retains 55% of its 2008 voters compared to only 47% in June. This suggests that the PN has managed to rein in more of its core voters.  Labour is still successful in retaining its past voters to the extent that it retains nearly 80% of its voters in 2008. 

PN winning contest on foreign affairs and economy

Despite trailing Labour in electoral support, the survey also shows greater support for the PN on both foreign affairs and financial matters.

Respondents were asked to state which party has the best policy on foreign affairs and public finances and economic issues. These two issues were topical in the past months due to events in Libya, Wikileaks revelations on Partnership for Peace and the economic troubles in the eurozone, including neighbouring Italy.

The survey shows that despite the opposition’s onslaught after the downgrading of the country’s financial position by Moody’s, the PN still enjoys a greater credibility in fiscal matters. 

But this is mostly due to the lack of trust in the opposition’s economic policies rather than because of overwhelming support for the PN’s policies. The PN’s advantage also reflects its power of incumbency, being the decision maker in both economic and foreign affairs issues.

While 27% prefer the PN’s economic and financial policies to those of other parties, only 18% prefer Labour’s policies.

Labour fares even worse on foreign policy issues where its policies are only preferred by 15% of voters. This result comes in the wake of the Libyan crisis, during which the party refrained from taking a clear stand in the struggle between Gaddafi and the rebels.

Labour policies are not even popular with prospective Labour voters.

Only 46% of Labour voters prefer their own party’s economic policies and even less (35%) prefer their party’s foreign affairs policies.  Moreover, 4% of Labour’s present voters prefer the Nationalist Party’s policies on both economics and foreign affairs. 

This could be an indication that a segment of Labour’s new voters still identify with PN policies and support Labour out of other considerations.

In contrast, Nationalist voters tend to be more policy-oriented, expressing strong support for their party’s policy on both issues. 85% of PN voters support their party’s economic policy, while 82% support its stance on foreign affairs. While prospective Nationalist voters shun Labour policies, 4% of PN voters opt for the Green Party’s foreign policy.

Significantly, the PN also enjoys more support for its policies on these two matters among undecided voters and those who intend not to vote in the next election.

PN still strong among University graduates

The survey also shows both the PN and Lawrence Gonzi registering more support than the PL and Joseph Muscat among respondents with a tertiary or university education. In fact, Labour’s national lead can be accounted for its strong support among respondents with a secondary education.  This could also be a reflection of the class divide with working class respondents more likely to have a secondary than a post secondary education.

In fact, Muscat peaks among respondents with a secondary education among which he is trusted by 42% against Gonzi’s 22%. On the other hand, Gonzi registers his highest trust rating among those with a university education (47%). AD’s support is completely restricted to those with a post secondary or tertiary education. Respondents lacking a university education but who have attended post secondary schooling are the most likely not to vote in the next education.

Methodology

A total of 671 respondents were contacted by telephone between Monday 12 and Wednesday 14 September. 400 accepted to be interviewed.  The results were weighed to reflect the age and population balance of population. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 5%.