Joseph Muscat’s choice: Pope or candidate

It is no longer a question of whether Joseph Muscat intends to withdraw from political life or not.  

One thing is sure after last Saturday’s address in a mass rally organised by Labour MEP Alex Agius Saliba: Joseph Muscat’s political hibernation is over.   

Irrespective of whether he will contest the MEP election in June, Joseph Muscat has returned to the political centre stage.  

And he intends to stay there, either as his party’s self-appointed spiritual leader or as the next head of the party’s MEP delegation in Brussels.  

Until he decides what to do, Muscat has found a pulpit offered to him by loyalists in the party from which he can stoke the fires of nostalgia for ‘the best of times’, at a time when Robert Abela is facing the mid-term blues.  

Contesting for a seat in Brussels will give Muscat one last hurrah in the form of a record-breaking tally of votes and the chance to beat Roberta Metsola. The second option gives Muscat the opportunity to project himself as the magnanimous former leader who is selflessly campaigning for the party, in a bid to win back disgruntled Labour voters now intent on not voting.  

Either way, Muscat stands to benefit from increased legitimacy, either as his party’s front runner or as the architect of yet another stratospheric victory. And while the outcome of his candidacy is sure success, helping Labour win back its disgruntled voters is an even greater challenge. 

In short if Labour wins big again, the victory will carry Muscat’s signature irrespective if he is on the ballot or not.   

"The question is not whether Joseph is running or not… the question is whether you will go out to vote."  This is how Muscat succinctly phrased this sentiment on Saturday night in what was a strong hint that standing as a candidate is not the only option he is considering.  

If Muscat does succeed in galvanising Labour voters through carefully chosen public appearances, he may well save Abela’s day, earning the gratitude of supporters for what they will perceive as a self-less act. Whether Abela wants this ‘gift’ or not is another matter altogether.  

What is still not clear is whether Muscat is calling the shots for Abela or whether the two leaders have come to a common mutually beneficial understanding.  

One leader, one pope  

Surely one should never underestimate the pull electoral glory has on all politicians particularly on narcissists like Muscat, who reportedly sports a tattoo with the word Invictus inscribed on his right bicep.  

But Muscat’s priority may well be that of sealing his place as the party’s undisputed pope - the leader who despite lacking formal executive powers is still able to shape his party’s identity.  

Key to his informal power in Labour is his ability to push his own people, the loyalists who help him fend off the greatest danger he faces; a slow erosion in the respect he enjoys within the party.  

Such a fall from grace would be disastrous for Muscat depriving him of the protection offered by the party which shields him from detractors. Muscat’s worst nightmare is not Robert Aquilina taunting him on Facebook but Robert Abela turning his back on him.  

But for Muscat this is not just a matter of building a formidable shield around him, in case he is arraigned in relation to the Steward scandal, Muscat also wants to ensure “continuity” in the policies which “modernised” the country in his roller coaster term in office.  

This modernisation came in a mixed package of policy reforms which effectively co-opted a new establishment, which benefitted from policies favouring developers and the importation of foreign labour.    

It also included a courageous socially liberal agenda, which turned the country from a laggard into a beacon for civil rights on most issues except abortion.  

And while addressing Agius Saliba’s rally, Muscat went as far as speaking of the next 10-year project the Labour Party should be aiming for.  

True to his reformist zeal Muscat insists the party “must keep modernising Malta by turning it into a laboratory of new technologies, bring in more equality, give women the right to make their own decisions over their own bodies, give everyone the right to take the decisions they need to take, and carry out new infrastructural projects because one cannot stop progress in its tracks.”    

The Muscat paradox  

For here lies the paradox of Muscat’s enduring legacy; that of a beloved strongman who reads from the same populist playbook as Trump and Berlusconi in his denouncement of persecution from ‘the establishment’, while still sounding like a continental liberal progressive with a mission to reform the country.  

It is no surprise coming from a leader who avidly follows global political trends, and who even before 2013 hinted that the only way to contain the populist right is to read from its playbook.  

And yet despite presenting himself as a beacon for Labour’s future, he still fails miserably in inculcating anti-corruption values in his supporters. His answer to those calling him corrupt is that he left “Malta’s treasury overflowing with cash.”  

This statement could be easily misinterpreted by supporters to mean that as long as the wheels turn, corruption is tolerable. Others may even think that corruption is the lubricant which makes the wheels turn. A few may even seek to take their cut while contributing to the country’s economic growth. And while hitting a home truth by intelligently linking Malta’s resilience during the pandemic to the budget surplus his administration left behind, he also must address the more problematic aspects of his legacy. But Muscat does not shy away from defending the economic model, decried in Maltese leftist circles, lock, stock and barrel.  

Irrespective of which of the two paths he chooses, Muscat will remain an albatross around his successor’s neck. In this case the albatross has no interest in sinking or harming his host and has every interest in ensuring his success.

Paradoxically, Muscat manages to remain popular in his party even if his policies are increasingly questioned. Muscat’s pull on voters has been reportedly confirmed in an internal party poll showing that 20,000 Labour voters planning to abstain in June would go to the polls if the former prime minister were to contest.  

Ironically, he manages to do this while unashamedly defending the same policies which trigger popular discontentment among non-voters on topics ranging from foreign workers to environmental havoc.    

Sure enough, Muscat still finds a way of reconciling his neo liberal orientation with patriotic and partisan pride. He does so by for example turning on the Nationalists who before 2013 warned that under Labour unemployment will increase and “now they complain that there are too many foreigners because there are so many jobs available”.  And while Muscat eerily referred to a ‘Gomorrah’ obstructing his health reforms, he expresses no regret on a botched privatisation of public hospitals from which the country ended up losing money. Muscat’s ability to speak a discourse reminiscent of old labour while demolishing some key aspects of its legacy, remains a key for understanding Muscat’s enduring appeal.   

Millstone or saviour?  

Irrespective of which of the two paths he chooses, Muscat will remain an albatross around his successor’s neck.  In this case the albatross has no interest in sinking or harming his host and has every interest in ensuring his success. In this sense, for now, the relationship between Abela and Muscat although fraught with tension, remains a symbiotic one.  

Still, the greatest danger Muscat poses to Abela is that of overshadowing him. Muscat’s forays into the political arena are bound to invite comparisons between the former leader’s sleek and witty oratory and his successor’s blandness.      

It is no surprise that Muscat repeatedly referred to the umbilical cord of ‘continuity’ between his time in power and Abela’s term in office, thus presenting himself as a guarantee that the path is not derailed.  

The question facing Abela now is whether to keep distance from Muscat at the risk of baffling supporters who love both leaders, or embrace him. Abela’s best hope is that the hospitals inquiry will not be concluded before the MEP election.  

This would give Abela and Muscat the space to speak from different pulpits while seeking the same aim. Otherwise, Abela would have to choose between defending his comrade in arms by sharing the same platform or ditching him outright. What is sure is that Muscat’s decision to take the limelight makes the latter a more unlikely option.