Muscat: From Abela’s millstone to trump card?

Joseph Muscat will not be on the ballot sheet, but his over-bearing and polarising presence is likely to dominate midterm elections thanks to the conclusions of the hospitals’ inquiry.

The mere fact that the magistrate submitted her findings on 25 April, the day when the Electoral Commission started receiving nominations for MEP elections, has already raised heckles.

In a democracy which cherishes the separation of powers between the executive, the legislative and the judicial powers, it is not the business of politicians to dictate the timings of a magisterial inquiry.

But the judiciary does not exist in a political vacuum and concluding an inquiry after more than four years on the eve of mid-term elections, was bound to conjure a political storm irrespective of the intentions of the magistrate in question.

And while anti-corruption crusaders who in the public psyche are associated with a faction of the Nationalist Party, are rejoicing at the fallout, the timing gives Abela an opportunity to use the Muscat trump card in a bid to rally Labour’s grass roots and raise the turnout.

Truth be said, the political fallout may well have been more politically damaging for Abela, had the inquiry been concluded a few weeks ago or just after MEP elections.

If that was the case the focus would have been on the content of the inquiry and the willingness of the State to follow on its recommendations.

Instead, the focus will now be on the timing of the inquiry. That could change if the AG proceeds to publish the conclusions of the inquiry as recommended by both Repubblika and Robert Abela himself.  But even if this was the case, a sober reading of the conclusions will be difficult against the backdrop of the electoral drum rolls.

Will Muscat’s troubles boost Labour’s turnout?

And as a master in the art of political survival, Robert Abela knows that ditching Muscat right in the middle of a campaign would be political suicide, an act which would demoralise the party’s grass roots probably resulting in record abstention rate which would have robbed him of his super majority.

For Abela had four full years to ditch Muscat and reduce his influence on his party’s grass roots. After missing that chance following the revocation of the hospital contract by the law courts in February 2023, his only political choice now is to embrace Muscat from a distance, not out of love for the former party leader but out of sheer political necessity.

But this comes with a silver lining for Abela. He can aggressively lash against the magistrate’s ‘timing’ , feeding a convenient and effective narrative, pitting the party against the ‘establishment’. In this way he can counter the creeping perception that Labour with its incestuous links with big business constitutes the new establishment.

Moreover, it gives Abela the opportunity to project his party as the perennial underdog, whose hold on power remains tenuous in the face of a conspiracy of sinister forces. Like Muscat in 2017 Abela could turn this into a call for political stability in the face of disruptive forces.

And he can do this without even entering the merits of the case and without absolving his predecessor from any wrongdoing. For Abela and his closest collaborators know that they cannot vouch for Muscat’s innocence in what remains the Achilles heel of the former leader’s legacy; a hospital sale from which the country gained nothing.

In so doing without even facing the risk of being overshadowed by Muscat had he stood as an MEP candidate, Abela can use the Muscat ace card in his bid to galvanise the turnout among core Labour voters while banking on doubts on the timing of the inquiry among middle of the road voters.    

Moreover, by lashing out against the ‘establishment’ which is hounding Muscat, Abela is also making up for the disappointment felt by Labour voters on his absence from the ballot sheet.

And the current political crisis has also given the party a polarising battle cry changing a boring lacklustre election characterised by a poor line up of Labour candidates, into a call to arms against what Abela craftily presents as “political terrorism”.

Moreover, once again as he previously did with regards to the inquiry on Jean Paul Sofia’s death, Abela can bank on the fact that the magistrate cannot reply to his attacks.

The risk of this strategy is obvious. It obfuscates the separation of powers and feeds a dangerous populism which thrives on public mistrust of the judiciary. In short, Abela risks turning the people against the law courts in a throw-back to the 1980s.

By going down this path, Abela risks backlash among middle of the road voters. But he may well bank on their abstention in forthcoming elections.

In the circumstances, Abela’s calculation may well be that the scale of Labour’s victory depends on the turnout among his voters. And with surveys confirming Muscat’s popularity among Labour voters, one can see a logic behind Abela’s political chess move.

Grech’s Catch 22

Sure, enough the risk of this strategy is that it also provides a rallying cry for the PN, possibly clawing back support from demoralised PN voters now intent on not voting or tempted to vote for a third parties or independents like Arnold Cassola.

But this makes it impossible for the party to focus on a positive campaign centring around Roberta Metsola’s larger than life stature.

And the ensuing polarisation clearly undermines any hope that the party will benefit from a low turnout among Labour voters in its bid to elect a third seat and narrow the gap. With polls show no significant shift from the PL to the PN, the best hope for the PN was a depressed turnout in the Labour heartlands.

Moreover, the polarisation could further alienate younger voters appalled by the ensuing blood bath.

In this scenario, the PN may have no choice but to go on the offensive, by defending the institutions in the face of an unprecedented attack on the judiciary.

Otherwise, the PN is at the risk of being outflanked by Repubblika and the likes of Jason Azzopardi whose life mission is to put Muscat behind bars irrespective of the political cost paid by the party.

But judging from his initial reaction, PN leader Bernard Grech is being careful not to personalise the issue around the polarising figure of Joseph Muscat.

For by going in an over drive the PN risks confirming Abela’s insinuation of collusion between the judiciary and the Opposition in undermining a democratically elected Labour government.

This may well turn out to be another unresolvable Catch 22 situation for Grech.  The more he presses on this issue he risks playing in to Abela’s narrative. But if he does not press hard enough, he risks losing his authority in the party.

Uncharted territory for Grech and Abela

Ultimately both parties are trying to make the best out of circumstances over which they do not have control. For the judiciary remains one of the few institutions over which the Labour government has little control.

And while the PN has little control over civil society voices opposed to Labour’s governance, it is inevitably associated with their antics.

At the end of the day, Abela may well end up winning a pyrrhic victory, trouncing the PN and on the back of a higher-than-expected Labour turnout.  But this could well pave the way for a leadership change in PN as he is increasingly embroiled in a conflict with the judiciary, the optics of which could further weaken his government’s rule of law credentials.

But as an astute politician who while lacking in vision, excels in the art of political survival on a day-to-day basis, Abela may well surprise everyone by distancing himself from Muscat the day after reclaiming the party’s super majority. After all, Abela has a track record of backtracking whenever his back is against the wall.

The question is whether Abela will be able to reign in his dogs after letting them out in a bid to save his own political skin. The chances are that Abela will once again be in debt to a predecessor who will emerge even stronger if Labour retains its super majority in an election turned referendum on his larger-than-life stature.