Muscat and Abela: From 'dear friends' to parallel leaders

Labour leader Robert Abela started the year by warming up to his predecessor, Joseph Muscat, whom he described as a ‘dear friend’ at a rally at the Orpheum Theatre in Gżira, a day after a reshuffle aimed at reinvigorating his government amidst polls showing record abstention among Labour voters.

In so doing, Abela raised expectations for Muscat’s loyalists, opening a door that he couldn’t afford to close again without paying a hefty price. It was clearly a signal to the party’s grassroots that Muscat was still welcome, and Abela’s way of dashing rumours of a fallout with his predecessor.

Ever since being elected party leader on a promise of continuity, and beating Chris Fearne on the back of support from Muscat loyalists, Abela has walked a tightrope, aware that he still owed his legitimacy to the electoral mandate given to Muscat in 2017. He did so by kicking out rotten apples like Konrad Mizzi, while refraining from expressing any political verdict on his predecessor, whose legacy remained unchallenged in the party.

This strategy worked insofar as Abela was elected on his own steam with a super-majority in 2022. Abela no longer owed his tenure in power to Muscat. But instead of using his newly-gained legitimacy to consolidate his leadership and detach himself from Muscat, Abela seemed keen on letting sleeping dogs lie. Abela even missed a golden opportunity to distance himself from Muscat after the law courts declared the hospital deal fraudulent in February 2023, to create a buffer between the party and Muscat’s legal and political responsibilities.

The spectre haunting Abela

Abela’s declaration of ‘friendship’ made in January was not made in a vacuum. It coincided with mounting speculation that the publication of a magisterial inquiry into the hospital scandal was imminent. This was already then a major headache for Abela, who was bracing for mid-term MEP and local elections with polls showing record levels of abstention among Labour voters, which risked significantly reducing Labour’s super-majority in the approaching election.

His calculation may well have been that in MEP elections, where turnout is bound to be low, it is the party that is most effective in mobilising its core voters that is best poised to win.

And what is a more powerful weapon to galvanise core voters than the charismatic Muscat?

Yet, even an astute politician as Abela is well aware that this would come at a cost, embroiling the party in Muscat’s own pending judicial battles.

Abela himself acknowledged this risk on January 26, questioning whether the timing of the inquiry was designed to cause the Labour Party maximum damage prior to the European elections. By suggesting he has no control over the timing of any judicial inquiry, Abela pre-emptively unleashed the Muscat weapon so as to ensure full support from the former leader’s loyal crowd, even in the eventuality of an arraignment happening under his watch.

Back into the limelight

Leaving a door ajar for some sort of Muscat comeback in the party, Abela has also raised the expectations of Muscat loyalists, who immediately took Abela to task by proposing Muscat as a candidate for the MEP elections.

The effort was spearheaded by party propagandist Emanuel Cuschieri, who had been ostracised from the party media in October 2022, only to be given a radio slot again in April 2023.

Instead of silencing the vociferous crowd of adulators, Muscat chose to entertain the possibility for weeks, with Abela never publicly excluding the eventuality of the former PM running for MEP, going as far as putting the onus on the former leader by saying that “if his (Muscat’s) answer is yes, why should I say no to him?” However, in a hint that Abela was not enthusiastic about the former leader taking the limelight from him, a few days later Michelle Muscat put the onus back on the party, by saying that the decision on whether her husband would contest was “up to the Labour Party”.

Ultimately, Muscat found a way to remain in the limelight without having to contest the elections. Addressing a public meeting organised by MEP Alex Agius Saliba, he set the tone for his political activism in the next weeks by telling an enthusiastic crowd in Pjazza Tritoni that “the question is not whether Joseph is running or not... the question is whether you will go out to vote.”

In this way, Muscat artfully managed to project himself as the magnanimous former leader who, instead of seeking personal glory to win a record number of votes, had decided to selflessly dedicate himself to campaigning for the party, in a bid to win back disgruntled Labour voters now intent on not voting.

Muscat’s parallel campaign

Muscat managed to then run his own parallel electoral campaign, dispensing his benediction to Labour’s crop of MEP candidates while shielding himself with the adulation of supporters, in the face of impending judicial troubles.

While this formula saved Abela from being outshone by a former leader in an election which offered Muscat a certainty of a record number of votes, it still created a sideshow in which Muscat, not Abela, called the shots.

By remaining in the limelight and being regularly invited to public events hosted by MEP candidates eager for Muscat’s blessing, the former Labour leader is now in a better position to fend off the greatest danger he faces: a slow erosion in the respect he enjoys within the party which shields him.

To some extent the relationship between Muscat and these candidates is transactional. For in return for ingratiating these candidates to his crowd, Muscat benefits from the legitimacy they give him within the party.

Muscat also knows that a looming election gives him some leverage over Abela, for just as much as he can help Abela by rallying core voters, he can also scupper his super-majority if he feels betrayed. In a Facebook post on May 6, Muscat ambiguously warned anyone who “looked the other way instead of fixing” the injustice he claims to be suffering, in what could have been a veiled reference to the Prime Minister.

But apart from this singular episode, Muscat has stuck to his self-appointed role of crowd-puller for MEP candidates.

Muscat’s enduring popularity

And this raises one important question: Why does Muscat remain a crowd-puller despite an inquiry suggesting that at best he was an imbecile who allowed the wolves to enter his office to plunder the country… and at worst…. that he was the mastermind of a grand theft?

Superficially many commentators put this to an exploitation of ignorance and sheer manipulation. In reality, it is because the ‘best of times’ narrative was reflected in material gains and visibility for people who were previously ignored and cancelled. And crucially, he cultivated an ideology which tied the emancipation of the masses with an economic model driven by the greed of the few, and the exploitation of transient foreigners.

While the trickle-down effect was limited and wages stagnated, Muscatian economics rely on an increased tax revenue to increase government spending without increasing the tax burden. In short, the magician had managed to square the circle. In comparison Abela came to power in less rosy times, where nostalgia for the ‘best of times’ is finding fertile ground.

A winning strategy until…

Irrespective of who between the two leaders is really calling the shots, the actual timing of the inquiry at the very start of the campaign suggests that the symbiotic relationship between Muscat and Abela was an effective one in terms of party strategy to ensure full mobilisation of core voters. This even led to a Labour bounce in the polls as the party retained more of its 2022 voters.

However, Abela also had to be careful not to awaken dormant categories of moderate voters presently intent on not voting who could actually vote for a ‘lesser evil’ if Abela crosses a red line. These include voters who consider the PN unprepared to govern the country but may be tempted to punish Labour in the comfort that they won’t be risking a change in the country’s government.

This explains why Abela chose to focus on the timing and not the content of the inquiry, even if he might have crossed a red line by comparing it to “political terrorism”.

While Abela used harsh words to attack the timing of the inquiry whose conclusions were presented on the day the Electoral Commission started accepting nominations, he did not embark on an unconditional defence of his predecessor, as he did with regards to his former deputy PM Chris Fearne, another casualty of the inquiry, whom Abela described as a “person of integrity”.

But all this changed when the inquiry was published by MaltaToday days before Joseph Muscat was arraigned in court. This inevitably led to the public’s attention turning from the timing of the inquiry to its actual content, which turns out to be very damning for Muscat and even more so for his close allies Konrad Mizzi and Keith Schembri, who were kept in key positions despite being exposed as owners of secret companies in Panama in 2016.

Moreover, while the rally of Muscat supporters in front of the law courts was largely peaceful, the optics were far from that polished corporate brand that Muscat had nurtured in 2013 to lure middle-of-the-road voters (it is worth remembering that back in 2012 Anglu Farrugia was unceremoniously dumped from deputy leader for criticising a member of the judiciary).

While it remains likely that Labour will win big on 8 June, Muscat will remain a millstone around Abela’s neck, even more so if Muscat takes credit for the victory while facing charges in court.

Now facing either conviction or absolution, both could have explosive consequences for party and country. Abela may need to prepare for both eventualities, hoping this will not detract him further from the actual business of running the country.

After 8 June, Muscat will no longer have the leverage he currently has on the eve of an election and freed from electoral pressures Abela may revert back to “let the institutions work” mantra.

Timeline

January 7: Robert Abela addresses supporters describing Joseph Muscat as his ‘dear friend’

January 25: On Facebook Labour stalwart Manuel Cuschieri asks his followers whether they agreed that Muscat should return to the Labour fore as an MEP.

January 26: Doorstepped by MaltaToday Joseph Muscat does not exclude running for MEP: ‘I cannot ignore the people’

January 26: Speaking outside Labour HQ before an event in which Muscat was present Abela expresses concern on the “exaggerated” delays in the inquiry’s conclusion questioning whether it was designed to cause the Labour Party maximum damage prior to the European Parliament elections adding that “Joseph Muscat was never out of the Labour Party. I believe he has more to give to Labour. God forbid I base my decisions on this inquiry.”.

January 27: Interviewed by Andrew Azzopardi on RTK 103 Robert Abela does not exclude Muscat’s candidature: “But if his answer is yes, why should I say no to him?”

February 1: Muscat indicates “It’s not an easy decision, there are a lot of factors which I have to reflect on,” Muscat says in a soft interview with Karl Bonaci on Fliving.

February 27: During a coffee morning Michelle Muscat says decision on whether her husband Joseph Muscat will contest the European Parliament election is “up to the Labour Party”.

March 9: Muscat addresses supporters at a rally by MEP Alex Agius Saliba in Pjazza Tritoni downplays the prospect of an MEP candidature, telling supporters: “The question is not whether Joseph is running or not…The question is whether you will go out to vote.”

March 13: Cuschieri claims that some entrepreneurs were pressuring Labour to keep Muscat off the June ballot for the European Parliament elections.

April 25: Vitals inquiry concluded and sent to the Attorney General’s office.

April 26: In a Facebook post, the PL shared a photo of the nine candidates taking a selfie at the Naxxar counting hall where they went to submit their nominations together. Muscat is not one of them.

April 28: Abela warns the judiciary not to engage in “political terrorism” while accusing “the Nationalist establishment” of trying to impede the government’s progress.

April 30: “I have no doubt I will be charged” Muscat tells journalists while lashing at ‘institutions working against Labourites’ and warning of another Egrant.

April 30: Using the inquiry to get out the vote, Abela said that the electorate has to make a decision and decide whether it will let “the establishment steal the sovereignty of the leadership of the country” while lashing at “a group of people who “work in the background, that do not forget nor forgive and that believe that they have a divine right to rule”

May 2: Abela describes the timing of the inquiry’s conclusion as ‘suspicious’ adding that the ‘establishment’ is trying to destabilise Malta.

May 6: Muscat takes to Facebook to warn “Anyone who has been tainted by this injustice, or washed their hands of this injustice” that they “will be judged harshly by the public immediately, by long-term justice, and by history forever.”

May 9: Muscat is interviewed on F Living, promising that when “this charade starts coming apart” he will hold those personally responsible for the €11 million spent on the magisterial inquiry.

May 15: Muscat makes comeback on party media as he is interviewed on One radio by Emanuel Cuschieri Joseph Muscat insisting that the case against him is based on hearsay while urging his audience to vote Labour on June 8.

May 21-May 25: Muscat embarks on roadshow addressing public events organised by Labour MEP candidates Clint Azzopardi, Alex Agius Saliba, Daniel Attard and Sarah Vella Gafa.

May 20: Friends of Joseph Muscat call for a ‘solidarity meeting’ outside the law courts on the day of his arraignment set for following week.

May 21: Abela alleged that the Nationalist Party is setting a “trap” for Labour supporters attending the solidarity meeting while adding that “just like [Muscat] never fell for the traps the PN tried on him, he will not allow anyone to fall for this one”.

May 26: MaltaToday publishes magisterial inquiry in full.

May 27: Asked about conclusions of inquiry Robert Abela replies “let us now allow the institutions to do their jobs. Whether someone is guilty or innocent, is definitely not for me to comment on.”

May 28: Muscat is arraigned in court as crowd of loyalists gather to express their support.