PN’s gains: Stepping stone or red flag?

A week is a long time in politics, let alone three whole years, which separate Maltese voters from the next general elections scheduled for 2027. 

But by narrowing the gap with Labour in the mid-term elections, the Nationalist Party has eliminated one enormous psychological obstacle: the widespread perception that a PN victory in 2027 is a pipe dream. 

The reality is that the PN no longer starts from minus 39,400, as was the case until the 8 June elections. It now starts the race somewhere between the minus 8,500 in MEP elections and the minus 20,000 in concurrent local elections. 

This turns the next general election into a more open contest where the PN will start at a disadvantage but with a more realistic chance of winning. 

While in the midterms any vote against Labour contributed to clipping the wings of the super majority, something which was appealing to both Nationalist, independent and even some Labour voters, in the next general election voters will determine whether the PN represents the change they want to see.  It is now the PN’s job not to raise red flags which could repel voters from it. 

Talent and money 

The results help the PN to withstand inevitable attacks on its credentials as a government in waiting. The more optimistic the PN’s outlook is the more the party can attract new talent.  However, a lot depends on how the PN can channel this new enthusiasm and translate it into better policies and stronger candidacies. 

The entry of new people with different sensibilities also risks undermining the precarious balance between liberals and conservatives in a party that has yet to resolve its longstanding identity problems. After restoring unity in the party, Bernard Grech will be increasingly wary of any sign of internal division. 

The sheer fact that a PN victory is more likely than it was before the midterms, could also result in more donations, some of which will undoubtedly try to influence the policies of a future PN government. This raises the question on how far the PN will go in securing a greater war chest by accepting donations from the same big business groups that benefitted from Labour’s policies. 

Spotlight on policy 

Moreover, the positive reversal of fortunes for the PN will also result in greater scrutiny of both the shadow cabinet and the party’s policies.  For the past decade people have taken PN policies with a pinch of salt, knowing that these were destined to be forgotten. From now on people will be weighing whether they stand to benefit from these policies. 

People, including major lobbies, will be asking how a change in government would impact their livelihoods, incomes, profits, hobbies, and lifestyle. Questions will range from whether the PN will retain current subsidies on energy to whether the party will keep cannabis clubs open, and from whether the party will change local plans to restrain development to whether it will reduce the tax burden. 

In answering these questions, the PN will have to carefully navigate between demands for change and the yearning for stability. The PN will have to clearly reassure people on which areas it will guarantee continuity and which areas it will reform.   

The leadership contest 

One major consequence of the PN’s gains in MEP and local elections is that Bernard Grech is now the undisputed leader. This puts an end to a period of turmoil in a party riven by factional conflict. But this also means that the PN will be led by the same leader who lost to Abela in 2022. 

And while in the midterms, the spotlight was on Labour’s shortcomings in power, in the next general election voters will be asking who makes the best prime minister in a choice between Abela and Grech.   

And while the PN’s gains have probably boosted Grech’s stature among the party faithful, Grech will need a trust boost among non-committed voters to have a real shot at winning.  So far, surveys have shown that Abela is more trusted than Grech and that a significant chunk of the population trusts neither of the two leaders. 

This means that from now onwards, it will be a different ball game for Grech, who will have to convince the country that he will make a better prime minister than Abela. To get there the PN leader needs to get his act in order before the country goes into electoral mode again. 

Tribalist revival 

One inevitable result of the party’s electoral gains is that party activists and core voters feel emboldened. For the first time since 2008 the party had something to celebrate, despite suffering another defeat. 

A 'tribalist' revival among core voters was vital for the party to flip several councils and to ensure a compact vote in MEP elections to secure the third seat. This revival is probably the result of party unity and the internal peace between Grech and Adrian Delia. 

But the party also needs to win over a big chunk of those who voted for independent or third-party candidates, and others who opted not to vote to catch up with the PL. 

The midterms have shown that the PN has so far only benefitted from a small shift in its favour. A greater number of votes lost by Labour went to independents or ‘parked’ in the abstentionist camp. 

In this sense, any PN resurgence depends on whether the opposition can unite under the PN’s banner or whether the PN’s dominance will be increasingly challenged by new political formations boosted by the success of independents like Arnold Cassola. 

In this sense, the PN has no monopoly over anti-Labour voters, and people who resent the PL but do not desire a PN government will have other options.  It is the PN’s task to convince voters that a PN victory is desirable.