Has Gozo turned its back on Labour?

The Nationalist Party’s dominance in Gozo was undisputed in every general election until 2017 when the Labour Party won an absolute majority for the first time. 

It was a watershed moment that saw the PL clinch 51.2% of the vote against the PN’s 47.9%. But that result had long been coming. Indeed, after the 2003 general election when the PN reached a high point of 58.8%, the party started experiencing a gradual decline. 

A decade later, the PN saw its share of the vote in Gozo drop to 50.1% as the PL under Joseph Muscat climbed to 49.1%. 

The tide turned in Labour’s favour five years later and was reconfirmed in the 2022 general election when the PL strengthened its lead to 53.5%, while the PN experienced its lowest ever result at 43.9%. 

Roll forward two years and results for the European Parliament and local elections suggest the PN has managed to stop the haemorrhage and turn the tide. The question now is whether the PN’s gains are permanent or just a temporary blip. 

A breakdown of results by electoral districts shows that in the local elections the PN obtained 1,127 votes more than the PL, while in the MEP election it secured 502 votes more than its rival. 

Although the numbers give the PN cause for hope, people close to the party in Gozo are cautious. 

The general election is still three years away and until then a lot can happen, according to a PN functionary, who was granted anonymity like others in this report, to be able to speak freely about internal matters. 

“There are several factors that can explain the result obtained on 8 June and while some of these will still be in place in the run-up to the general election, others are of a local nature and may not be relevant in a general election,” they said.

The Alex Borg phenomenon 

The PN’s biggest asset in Gozo is undoubtedly Alex Borg. He contested his first election in 2022, obtaining a whopping 6,108 votes, placing second to Gozo Minister Clint Camilleri in the overall ranking on the district. 

“Alex not only inherited the political network of former PN minister Giovanna Debono, who remains a popular figure on the island, but he is also well-liked by everyone, even Labour sympathisers,” the same source said. 

The PN's Alex Borg (second from right) celebrating the electoral success of a candidate at the Naxxar counting hall (Photo: James Bianchi/MaltaToday)

And although Borg’s name was not on the ballot sheet on 8 June, a second source said he worked very hard to find local council candidates. And in a community like Gozo where clientalism thrives it is not an easy feat, the source added, to find candidates to stand for a party that is on the losing side and thus unable to fulfil demands. 

“But Alex’s personality helped the PN present a strong candidature and for two whole months he accompanied local candidates on house visits in a concerted effort to bring out the vote,” the source said. 

The efforts appear to have paid off. The PN managed to increase its vote in all Gozitan localities apart from Kerċem and Għasri. The party saw its overall local council vote increase by 1,891 over the 2019 results whereas the PL remained static with an overall loss of 86 votes. 

But another Gozitan PN functionary told MaltaToday the party was more united this time around. With Borg having performed so well in the last general election, the source said, veteran PN MP Chris Said took a step back. 

“The rivalry that risked upsetting the applecart was set aside and the PN was more effective this time around,” they added. “We cannot know what happens in a general election but the PN has definitely gelled more.”

PN benefitted from local factors 

But several local issues may have also boosted the PN’s chances on 8 June and these factors are unlikely to be repeated in a general election. 

The PN saw a significant 71% increase in its vote tally in Munxar, which is very likely a vote of appreciation for Nationalist mayor Damien Spiteri, who may have also received backing from sympathetic PL supporters. In Żebbuġ, the PN also experienced a significant increase in votes on the back of disquiet within the Labour camp that saw the former Labour mayor Marlene Cini first announce that she will not contest only to change her mind later. 

Sources pointed out that these and other examples are local factors that could have pushed Labour voters to abstain in local elections or even vote for PN candidates. “These factors are unlikely to be repeated in a general election and so it has to be seen how the electorate will behave then,” a veteran PN functionary said. 

But the PN may also benefit from its adversary’s internal problems caused by the rivalry between ministers Clint Camilleri and Anton Refalo. Camilleri has been Gozo minister since January 2020, while Refalo is currently agriculture minister.

The PL’s Camilleri-Refalo rift 

A source within the PL, who was granted anonymity to speak candidly about internal matters, pointed towards two particular localities where this rivalry was clearly on show. In Xagħra, where both major parties put great effort, the PN increased its support by 559 votes and added two councillors despite still losing out to Labour. But the biggest loser in Xagħra was Clint Camilleri, the source noted. 

“In Xagħra, Anton Refalo’s chief of staff Victor Curmi beat Clint Camilleri’s ally Aaron Agius hands down to become the new Labour mayor,” the source said. 

In Xewkija, former mayor and Camilleri aide Hubert Saliba did not contest the election, avoiding a showdown with Refalo’s daughter, Simona Refalo, who was elected mayor in a strong showing. 

Gozo Minister Clint Camilleri at the counting hall to cheer on Labour local council candidates (Photo: James Bianchi/MaltaToday)

But the biggest hit for Camilleri was in his hometown of Qala. The PN made big gains and although the PL still won it lost 219 votes when compared to 2019. Matters were compounded late last week when Corey Cardona, one of two Labour councillors elected in Nadur and a canvasser for Camilleri, resigned just a week after the election. 

“There is widespread dissatisfaction with the Gozo Ministry, which is reflected in a relatively high abstention rate among Labour voters but the Refalo-Camilleri rivalry is not helping one bit,” the source said. 

Whether the PL’s internal warfare will have an impact in a general election still has to be seen but the council results did bring out the stark difference between the PN’s tight ship and the PL’s vessel, which is taking in water. 

It may be too early to say whether Gozo has turned its back on the PL or simply given it a temporary cold shoulder but the 8 June results show that Gozitan voters, like anywhere else, cannot be taken for granted.