[ANALYSIS] His Gonzi phase: Why Abela’s premiership could be slipping

Robert Abela’s first foray in politics was an address to the party general conference in January 2012, a full year before Labour’s victory, in which he denounced the “small clique” that had taken over the country under the Nationalist administration of Lawrence Gonzi.

It was a deft overreach for the son of the man whom Gonzi had installed as President of the Republic in 2009, soon after George Abela lost the Labour leadership bid to Joseph Muscat. But in the standing ovation he received, the ice had been broken between the Abelas and Muscat, and it healed the rift George Abela provoked in 1998 when he abandoned Alfred Sant’s sinking ship, becoming a ‘darling’ of the PN-aligned establishment for supporting Malta’s EU membership.

The Nationalists rebuked the young Abela for his ingratitude, dubbing him yet another Labour firebrand despite his father’s pedigree. But back then, few would have anticipated that this future prime minister of Malta would end up facing the same problems Gonzi endured in his second, and final administration – the perception that Malta is run by a “small clique”, that the government is indecisive, and that the PM’s authority is increasingly challenged within the party.

The parallels do not stop there. Both Gonzi and Robert Abela found themselves as prime ministers after bitter internal contests in their respective parties, both replacing larger than life predecessors: Eddie Fenech Adami, the leader who anchored Malta in the European Union, and Joseph Muscat who transformed Labour into the most successful electoral machine in Malta’s post-war history.

There are even parallels in Gonzi’s first electoral test in MEP elections held in 2004, and those held last June, where in both cases a significant portion of voters migrated from the ruling party to independents and third parties in a clear warning that voters cannot be taken for granted.

Another striking similarity is that, as was the case between 2004 and 2008, voters are now increasingly restless and dissatisfied with the ruling party but are not yet able to trust the Opposition to govern.

For like Gonzi before him, Abela still enjoys higher trust ratings than the Opposition leader.

And this raises the prospect of history repeating itself again in 2027, when Abela will face Bernard Grech again in the polls, where unlike in MEP elections voters will be choosing a government and who will be prime minister.

Like Labour’s maligned Alfred Sant, Bernard Grech may well catch up to Abela, but not enough to win, paving the way for another five difficult years in government for Abela where he would likely face a stronger Opposition leader, possibly Roberta Metsola.

But the fact that a twice-defeated Sant was just 1,500 votes short of victory should stand as a reminder that nothing can be excluded in politics.

Just as in the Gonzi administration, we are now seeing public disdain and scepticism towards official explanations on power outages or contaminated beaches, reminiscent of the public reaction to the blunders of the Gonzi administration on the Arriva debacle and the use of heavy fuel oil in Delimara.

It is a growing distrust in the government’s ability to effectively manage and transparently communicate crises, one of Labour’s strong points during the COVID pandemic.

And while Abela is more flexible on moral issues than the conservative Gonzi, abortion is still a hard pill to swallow for Labour’s own conservative wing. Abela’s backtracking on a bill allowing abortion in cases where the mother’s health is in jeopardy left a bitter taste among progressive voters. Like Gonzi on divorce, Abela may well end up calling a referendum at the risk of splitting his base.

The obvious differences

Sure, the differences are obvious.

For one, the PN, even at its peak and unlike Labour in 2013, 2017 and 2022, had never won with a stratospheric majority. Despite its aura of invincibility, the PN has never surpassed the 52% mark in elections.

Unlike Gonzi – who won only one national election in 2008 and then with a relative majority four full years after becoming party leader – Abela’s leadership was cemented by a 55% majority in elections held two years after being elected party leader. Unlike Gonzi in 2008, he does not have to worry that a lone backbencher can bring him down, as Franco Debono did in 2012 after a torturous four years fraught by conflict, with other backbenchers like Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando making life hard for Gonzi.

And while Gonzi’s rival in the leadership contest, John Dalli, remained a thorn in his side till the very end, Abela was keen on keeping Chris Fearne by his side. Similarly to Gonzi he toyed with the idea of kicking Fearne upstairs to the European Commission, before this plan was foiled by the latter’s arraignment in the Vitals case.

Another major difference is the way both PMs react to international instability, particularly on energy: Gonzi’s fate was sealed by public anger on the hike in utility bills, while Abela has so far shielded the people from similar increases.

But Gonzi never faced the governance crisis of the scale Abela inherited from Muscat, now reaching its head with the Vitals corruption prosecutions. And it was only at the very end that Gonzi was rocked by the Enemalta oil scandal uncovered by MaltaToday in the final days of the administration.

The PN ruled Malta for 24 long years between 1987 and 2013, interrupted only by Sant’s brief tenure at Castille between 1996 and 1998; Labour has only been in power for 11 years. In that cycle, Gonzi made his own predecessor President of the Republic and sealed his departure from active politics, but today Joseph Muscat is surrounded by his own loyalist circles and is very much part of the political game. Indeed, Gonzi took over from Fenech Adami after his glorious exit in the wake of EU accession; Abela took over from a disgraced leader with an axe to grind and who is now desperate to protect his legacy after being arraigned over corruption on the watch of his successor.

The downward spiral

Curiously, despite his strong parliamentary majority after getting elected by a staggering 55% majority just two years ago, Abela’s position in the party increasingly looks like that of Gonzi in his final years marked by internal unrest.

The fact that two Labour MEPs felt comfortable voting against Abela’s instruction to support Roberta Metsola’s candidature for EP President suggests that the PM’s word is not final, and party officials are no longer bound by party discipline.

The insubordination could be contagious and has even seeped to the local level, as was the case in Birkirkara where Labour’s most popular councillor, voted against the party instructions to elect an independent mayor (a one-time Labour councillor).

Ironically, the internal flak Abela is receiving for ordering his MEPs to support Metsola is also reminiscent of the flak received by Gonzi within his own party after he had proposed Robert Abela’s own father George as President. This suggests that any move by Abela to win back the middle ground is bound to trigger opposition among tribalists.

What is most remarkable in Abela’s fall from grace is the speed at which this is all happening. For Abela’s troubles only began last year mainly as a reaction to his initial opposition and subsequent U-turn on demands for a public inquiry into the Jean Paul Sofia death.

The reasons behind the implosion

One reason for this is that Labour, like the PN before it, is no longer the homogenous party composed exclusively of party diehards. Abela finds himself struggling to appease core voters without alienating middle of the road voters, and he clearly failed the test when attacking the judiciary following the arraignment of Muscat over the Vitals scandal.

Laboour now finds it very hard to reconcile its vaguely socialist commitments while presiding over an economic powerhouse which, to some extent, depends on the exploitation of cheap foreign labour and endless construction.

Like Gonzi in 2008, Abela is increasingly caught between growing public umbrage at the construction industry and being part and parcel of an ecosystem in which politicians are very much at ease with construction magnates. Ironically Abela himself formed part of the Planning Authority’s legal team when Gonzi embarked on reforming this institution, with limited success.

And like Gonzi, Abela might be keen to dispel the perception that he is in cahoots with property developers, but he also fears these magnates will shift to the PN just as they did when they came to Labour in 2013. And this explains Abela’s constant U-turns and indecision when faced by angry residents protesting predatory construction.

But it is still amply clear that Joseph Muscat wields enough influence through a parallel leadership network inside Labour, that can increasingly undermine Abela’s authority. It is no surprise that most Labour MEP candidates, with the notable exception of Thomas Bajada and Steve Ellul, actively sought the benediction of the former leader.

Abela must have by now realised that the current situation is not sustainable. One important lesson he can learn from Gonzi is not to abandon the party by exclusively focusing on government.

The absence of an open internal debate explains the PN’s failure to read the signs on the ground before 2013.

It could also explain Labour’s failure to anticipate its drop in support in June’s MEP elections.

With an election due in three years’ time, Abela still has time to recover. But this clock is ticking fast, probably at a faster rate than Gonzi’s during his decline.