US election coin-flip: View from Malta

As Americans head to the polls, the world holds its breath. The impact of this election reaches far beyond the United States’ borders.

Europeans are among those who will be hooked to their screens on Tuesday to see how their lives and businesses will be impacted by their neighbours across the Atlantic.

Professor Carmen Sammut, Professor in media and international relations at the University of Malta, and policy consultant Brendan Zerafa, both agree that when it comes to geopolitics, a Harris presidency would mean continuity and the preservation of the status quo in transatlantic ties.

Harris would likely strengthen the traditional alliance, Prof. Sammut says, believing the United States’ first female president would likely pursue a multilateral approach. “Harris would be much more likely than her political opponent to align with EU interests and reinforce the bloc’s security stance in its eastern borders.”

Likewise, both Zerafa and Sammut believe a Donald Trump presidency would likely push the EU towards self-reliance on defence. “Trump’s ambivalence on Russia will ring alarm bells in Eastern Europe,” Sammut says.

“A second Trump presidency deeply concerns me, not only as a citizen of the EU, but also as a Maltese person who values the constitutional stance of neutrality,” Zerafa adds.

As a case in point, Zerafa points to news reports stating that Trump’s plan to fulfil his promise of ending the Russia-Ukraine war involves the creation of demilitarised zones (DMZs) on both sides of the border. “The twist is that Trump envisions European forces, rather than NATO overseeing the DMZs,” Zerafa says. “This would strengthen certain drives within the EU to create a common army, putting neutral states such as Malta, which is currently enjoying the benefits of NATO association without contributing to the military alliance, in a very difficult position.”

Even the economic implications of the America election produce stark differences between the two outcomes. “Even the push towards EU self-reliance would already mean a significant shift in the bloc’s budget,” Sammut points out.

“Only this week, Donald Trump warned that the European Union would ‘pay a big price’ for not buying enough American exports if he wins the election. Speaking in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, he promised a Trump Reciprocal Trade Act, signalling that the EU should brace for renewed protectionist policies that could impact sectors like aerospace, agriculture, and steel.”

On the other hand, Sammut says a Harris presidency would mean an alignment of goals with the bloc on its Green Deal closely, potentially opening doors for joint efforts on carbon reduction.

This would contrast heavily with a Trump administration. “A Trump administration would likely prioritise fossil fuels, which could hinder EU efforts to meet its climate targets, potentially putting the EU at a competitive disadvantage as it implements its green policies.”

Likewise, Brendan Zerafa acknowledges not only Trump’s clear protectionist stance, but also his erratic habit of slapping tariffs on certain countries on a whim. He references Trump’s 2019 spat with French President Emmanuel Macron, which led to hints that he would tax French wine in retaliation to a French digital services tax.

MaltaToday also spoke to economist and former Chamber of Commerce president Marisa Xuereb, who, unlike other observers, didn’t seem too preoccupied with the damage a Trump presidency can do to the EU’s economies.

“A tariff war benefits no one at the end of the day… Americans would be as unhappy with tariffs on EU goods as Europeans,” Xuereb says, believing Trump’s threats from his previous White House failed to materialise. “Trump is ultimately a businessman, and so another Trump presidency would mean that he will be more sensitive to business issues.”

Xuereb noted that to her surprise, this election had less to do with economic issues such as inflation, noting that the two candidates seem to divide the US according to gender. Indeed, while Trump enjoys a large majority among men, the vast majority of women say they prefer Harris.

“This can be paradoxical at times… Latino voters are among the groups that are heavily supporting the twice-impeached former president, despite his statements on Latino migrants throughout the years. I think it goes to show how irrational human beings can truly be,” Xuereb says.