Looking back 2024: Labour cut down to size

The sight of Labour agents celebrating in the Naxxar counting hall, even as clear signs emerged that the elusive supermajority was slipping away, stands as one of the most striking moments of 2024.

Whether these agents were putting on a brave face to send an uplifting message to party supporters waiting at home for the signal to go carcading, or whether they were misled into believing their party had once again won by a wide margin, remains unclear.

While party officials were telling enquiring journalists that the fabled supermajority had at least been halved, rumours were already circulating in the counting hall that Labour had won by 30,000 votes – a result that would have crushed the Opposition’s hopes and solidified Labour’s invincibility.

Moreover, surveys conducted during the MEP election campaign, including MaltaToday’s, failed to capture the scale of Labour’s decline. They had predicted a gap of over 20,000 votes, but Labour ultimately won by just 8,500 votes, down from 39,000 in 2022. For the first time since 2008, no party had won an absolute majority, with Labour’s support dropping from 55% to 45%.

It was no surprise, therefore, that despite losing the election and remaining stuck at 42%, PN agents also joined in the celebrations. Despite failing to gain ground, the MEP elections suggested that the PN could still win by default, thanks to lower turnout among Labour voters and defections to third parties and independents.

A chronicle of decline foretold

Despite failing to predict the outcome during the MEP election campaign, MaltaToday surveys had picked up on this negative trend for Labour, particularly after Abela’s U-turn on the Jean Paul Sofia inquiry back in 2023. The PN leapt ahead for the first time ever, thanks to a surge in abstention among Labour voters.

The trend has continued after the mid-term elections, with the last two political surveys, including one after the budget, showing the two parties’ neck-and-neck, with the PN registering a wafer-thin majority. This isn't due to a significant number of voters switching sides, but because they remain firmly in the abstentionist camp.

Surveys still offer Labour a glimmer of hope. Despite Labour’s dip, Abela remains more trusted than Opposition leader Bernard Grech, and the government’s performance is still judged positively by a majority of voters. Hopes of a recovery in the coming months are not entirely misplaced. Labour would comfortably regain the lead if all those who trust Abela more than Grech and who rate the government positively were to vote for Labour in a general election, where the stakes are higher than in the MEP elections.

But this scenario is reminiscent of the PN’s decline during Lawrence Gonzi’s first term in office when he was consistently more trusted than Alfred Sant. Sant’s political career was damaged by staying on as leader despite losing two consecutive elections and a referendum. Present PN leader Bernard Grech, like Sant in 2008, is seen as the underdog with little chance of winning. Yet, despite everything, Sant was just 1,500 votes away from winning the 2008 election. Could Grech deliver a similar surprise in 2027, possibly even becoming PM or paving the way for the next PN leader in 2032?

The end of a cycle

What is certain is that the MEP election result has dealt a major psychological blow to a party accustomed to winning big. In 2023, voters cut Abela and Labour down to size, showing them the proverbial yellow card.

To some extent, Labour may be facing the inevitable wear and tear of more than a decade in power in a country where political cycles generally last a decade. This was the case with Labour between 1971 and 1981 (when it lost the majority but retained a majority of seats) and the PN between 1987 and 1996 and between 1998 and 2008 (when it lost its absolute majority but clung to power with a wafer-thin margin).

This trend is reflected in the growing scepticism —and in some cases, outright contempt—towards the government, exemplified by the public backlash against former Tourism Minister Clayton Bartolo following a scandal involving the employment of his wife by Gozo Minister Clint Camilleri.

Once again, Abela was forced to shift his approach, just as he had with the Jean Paul Sofia inquiry, confronted by a public reaction he had failed to anticipate.

Even during the MEP election campaign, Abela’s attempt to galvanise Labour voters by attacking the so-called establishment over Joseph Muscat’s arraignment failed miserably. This was a clear indication that Labour’s formidable coalition of moderates, progressives, and die-hards was faltering.

Labour’s greatest advantage over the PN – the perception of unity behind its leader – has also been fatally weakened. Cracks emerged during the summer when former Party General Secretary Jason Micallef shocked Abela by briefly entertaining the prospect of becoming deputy leader.

Abela averted a move that could have further weakened the party’s standing with moderates by accepting a compromise candidate, a sitting MEP, as his deputy leader for party affairs. The new leadership troika includes two potential future leaders: Ian Borg and Alex Agius Saliba. While this formula binds their fate to Abela, it could lead to sparks if Borg and Agius Saliba start feeling that Abela has become an albatross weighing on their future ambitions.

The decline of Labour’s coalition

Abela now faces a quandary. Any push to appease Muscat loyalist’s risks alienating middle-of-the-road voters appalled by the scale of the Vitals scandal. At the same time, Abela cannot afford to lose the support of die-hard Labourites who remain fond of his predecessor.

Other cracks also emerged. While in 2013, Labour managed to appeal to both developers and environmentalists in a precarious balancing act, the party now faces disgruntlement in its own constituencies. It also faces an Opposition eager to mend ties with developers.

The PN’s muted reaction to the Villa Rosa local plan change and its complicity in a motion allowing the present owner of Fort Chambray to sell the concession to developers are clear indications of this.

Moreover, the PN’s perceived, albeit remote, chance of winning the next election means developers are taking a greater interest in the party and are more willing to invest in it, offering a lifeline to a bankrupt organisation.

Labour voters, on the other hand, are becoming bolder in taking their party to task on land use and environmental issues. Some may even defect, as seen in the case of former Gżira mayor Conrad Borg Manche, who won 6,000 first-count votes in the MEP election despite lacking a national platform.

Labour’s balancing act on migration also remains precarious. Non-EU workers are a crucial peg in the current economic model, which generates revenue by sustaining subsidies on energy costs and the recently announced tax cuts. While voters may take such measures for granted, Abela knows that any hike in energy prices or taxes would be devastating for Labour.

Yet, Labour has failed to excite progressive voters in 2024, a small but influential category. After backtracking on abortion reform in 2023, Labour shied away from further tempering abortion laws. The end-of-year decision to commence a debate on assisted dying may be an attempt to retain the progressive edge while exposing the PN’s conservatism.