Looking back 2024: She came. She saw. She conquered… and left

Roberta Metsola was undoubtedly the shark in the pond at the last European election, with an outsized candidature compared to her running mates and opponents.

Voting in her hometown of Sliema, it was no surprise that Metsola was featured in Google’s ‘Year in Search’ video, where she commented, “2024 will be the biggest global election year in history.”

As president of the European Parliament and with a mission to encourage young people to go out and vote, she generated Europe-wide interest – both good and bad. In Malta, her celebrity status was undeniable at PN meetings, where crowds eagerly jostled to speak with her and take selfies. The presence of a security detail, by virtue of her public role, only helped enhance Metsola’s importance in the eyes of a star-struck crowd.

She never said much when addressing PN meetings – she stuck to a script that spoke of hope without delving into policy – but said enough to keep people believing that a better future was possible.

And though Metsola was not at the centre of the PN’s electoral campaign, her election performance was impressive. She obtained a record-breaking 87,473 first-count votes, equivalent to 34% of all valid votes cast and 80% of all votes obtained by the PN.

It was not as if Metsola’s performance was ever in doubt, but the big question mark hanging over the PN was whether her shine could rub off on the party and help bridge the massive gap with Labour. In the end, it did.

The PN still came second, but it won back a third seat and saw the 40,000-vote lead the Labour Party had obtained in the 2019 EP election shrink to a mere 8,000 votes. The outcome provided the PN with a ray of hope in a long, arid period characterised by dismal survey results. The EP result gave the PN hope that the PL juggernaut was, after all, beatable, and the super-majority was assailable.

But after the EP result came the inevitable question: Will Metsola stay to lead the PN at the next general election?

The answer came a few weeks later when Metsola was approved as the European People’s Party’s lead candidate for a second term as European Parliament president. Her candidature was approved by 90% of the vote, cementing Metsola’s status as a leading European politician with aspirations that transcend Malta’s shores. The abstentions of Labour MEPs Alex Agius Saliba and Daniel Attard only helped strengthen the local perception that Metsola could be the biggest threat to Labour in Malta.

When asked point-blank whether she would be contesting the next general election in Malta – due at the latest in July 2027 – her reply was, “We will see.”

Metsola’s term as parliament president ends in January 2027, and it is clear that she will run the full course. With the general election date being the prerogative of Prime Minister Robert Abela, he may very well choose to go to the polls in 2026 in an attempt to deprive the PN of its star candidate.

But whatever date the Prime Minister chooses, it is now clear that Grech will be at the helm of the PN, not Metsola.

This is the realisation that has started to sink in among PN supporters, who, until June, were hoping that, like a knight in shining armour, Metsola would ride all the way to Pietà and take charge of the party.

Increasingly, since June, the PN has tried to project itself as a government-in-waiting and not simply as an Opposition. The only measure we have to gauge the effectiveness of this strategic shift is the regular polling conducted by MaltaToday and other reputable outlets.

In the two MaltaToday surveys held after the summer months, the PN was ahead of Labour each time by a relative majority that fell within the margin of error.

The second survey was held after the budget, which showed that despite the government experiencing a bounce, this was not strong enough to leapfrog the PN.

It would seem that the PN without Metsola has reached a stage where it can be a competitive force. Nonetheless, Grech’s trust rating remains dismally low when compared to Abela's, which leaves the PN facing an uphill struggle.

Abela enjoys a stronger trust rating than Grech among voters who are saying they will abstain if an election were held now. This gives the PL greater room for growth.

The question PN strategists will have to contend with is whether voters are willing to see Grech and not Metsola or Abela walk up the stairs of Castille to become prime minister after the next election.

Selling Grech to a fickle electorate that is willing to punish Labour but unwilling to automatically hitch its wagon to the PN will not be an easy proposition.

However, 2024 has shown that the realisation that Grech is here to stay until the next election has finally unshackled the PN from holding on to eternal hope in a Metsola leadership that may never materialise.

This realisation allows PN strategists the space to focus, but crucially, it gives Grech the certainty that the next big battle is his alone to win or lose.

The PN leader will have to step up and convince a sceptical electorate that he will be a good prime minister who is unafraid to make hard decisions and is able to represent everyone, even those who do not support the PN. However, in a scenario where Metsola’s larger-than-life persona remains a reality that cannot be ignored, Grech will have to portray greater self-confidence. If 2024 is anything to go by, Grech still has a tough journey ahead.