Looking Back 2024: Robert Abela’s gambles

If a week is a long time in politics, 2024 was an eternity.

The year that rocked the governing party to its core and ended its supermajority also saw Prime Minister Robert Abela risking it all in a series of gambles, some of which paid off, while others are still in play. Whereas 2023 had been characterised by a series of embarrassing U-turns for the Prime Minister, 2024 emerged as the year in which Abela played a game of high stakes.

Going all in on Chris Fearne 

At the start of the year, Abela identified Chris Fearne as Malta’s next European Commissioner. The now-former deputy prime minister and health minister had been credited with successfully handling the pandemic and was seen as a veteran politician who ticked all the boxes for the post. 

However, the conclusion of the Vitals inquiry changed everything. Despite the charges against Fearne, Abela maintained that he would still nominate him for the European Commission, stating at the time, “the charges alone will not change my decision to nominate him for commissioner.” 

Days later, when formal charges were filed against Fearne, he resigned from Cabinet and withdrew his nomination. Despite this, Abela continued to bet on Fearne, writing an open letter asking him to reconsider his decision. 

As Fearne was arraigned and court proceedings began in the summer, Abela told MaltaToday that he would re-nominate him for the post if the court did not find enough prima facie evidence to indict him. 

But this did not happen. With Fearne indicted, Abela had no choice but to find a new nominee for Malta’s European Commissioner, eventually selecting his chief of staff, Glenn Micallef. 

Micallef, a relatively young nominee with no executive experience at the time, was ultimately given a weak portfolio — a far cry from the new Mediterranean portfolio Abela had lobbied for. 

In the end, Abela’s gamble flopped, and Fearne now sits as a backbencher, focused on clearing his name in court. 

Playing the Muscat card 

The gamble to bring back Joseph Muscat into the fold was set in motion on 25 January when Manuel Cuschieri, Muscat’s most ardent supporter, posted on Facebook asking whether people agreed that Muscat should return to the Labour fold as an MEP. The post sparked a frenzy among the party's grassroots. 

The very next day, MaltaToday visited Muscat’s office to ask if he intended to run for the MEP seat. "I cannot ignore the people," he replied, but refused to confirm his intentions. 

Seeing the euphoria this inspired among the Labour base, Abela sought to capitalise on it in the months leading up to the MEP and local council elections, announcing that he would not stop Muscat from contesting on the PL ticket. 

In doing so, Abela hoped to soften the blow of record abstentionism, which had been affecting the party, according to polls at the time. However, he also risked putting himself in the shadow of his predecessor, who was arguably more popular among the grassroots than Abela himself. 

On top of this, Abela further risked alienating moderate voters who were unwilling to see the return of the controversial figure riddled with corruption claims. It was a gamble he was willing to take. 

Muscat played along, attending events organised by MEP candidates in a clear attempt to mobilise the vote. At one such event, he told the crowd: “The question is not whether Joseph is running or not… the question is whether you will go out to vote.” 

As the months passed and the elections drew nearer, Abela doubled down on his bet on Muscat, defending his predecessor following the conclusion of the Vitals inquiry. Abela even went so far as to attack the magistrate conducting the inquiry, painting a picture that his government was under attack by “the establishment” – the judiciary and journalists included. 

The election result left the Labour Party with a bitter taste since it saw its majority cut to a mere 8,000 votes. It’s hard to say whether Abela’s gamble prevented a bigger disaster by arresting the haemorrhage of core voters to the abstention camp, or whether it alienated more voters, disappointed by the overtures towards Muscat. 

Keeping Muscat loyalists close 

Abela’s latest gamble was to keep both his friends close and his enemies even closer in the PL’s internal elections. 

In September, the Labour Party searched for two new deputy leaders and a new president, as the previous officeholders announced they would not seek re-election. 

Ian Borg, who is seen favourably by both Abela and Muscat factions within the PL, secured his role as deputy leader for parliamentary affairs in an uncontested race. 

However, the other deputy leader post was the subject of controversy when party stalwart Jason Micallef, a hard-line Muscat loyalist, announced his intention to run. Micallef’s decision sparked fears of a Muscat takeover by proxy among MPs and party insiders. 

To prevent this while still making a compromise with the Muscat camp, Abela accepted MEP Alex Agius Saliba’s bid for the vacancy, while Micallef withdrew his nomination. Agius Saliba, while certainly close to Muscat, is seen as more moderate than Micallef, though he has no qualms about challenging Abela, as evidenced by his abstention during the vote for Roberta Metsola’s election as European Parliament president. 

Meanwhile, Abela’s choice for party president, Norma Saliba, lost the internal election to Alex Sciberras by a whisker. While Saliba was seen as someone Abela could count on to toe the line, Sciberras, a vocal outsider, emerged victorious. 

This gamble left Abela with no absolute loyalists within the PL’s top brass, though it did bridge the gap between the two factions. Nonetheless, the gamble left the Prime Minister with a weaker hand inside the party.