ANALYSIS | MaltaToday survey: Labour rebounds, PN stalls

The latest MaltaToday survey reveals Labour regaining support, the PN struggling with abstention and leadership trust, and third parties still facing fragmentation.

We revisit the numbers to highlight the five main takeaways from the April survey.

1. PN with bigger abstention problem than Labour

For the past two years, the PN had been making inroads, mainly thanks to a growing number of former Labour voters intending to abstain. This meant the PN was closing the gap not on its own merits but by default. However, this strategy only worked as long as Labour continued losing a significant portion of its 2022 voters to abstention.

In the latest survey, Labour is now losing just 11% of its 2022 voters to abstention – it previously was losing about 20% of its voters. This change coincides with a budget that left more money in the pockets of the lower middle class and which started to be felt towards the end of the first quarter.

Meanwhile, the PN – previously losing around 10% of its 2022 voters to abstention – is now losing 19%. In short, the PN currently has a bigger abstention problem than Labour.

This shift could be due to a combination of factors including: General distrust in the party’s leadership, voter resignation, and reduced political engagement with no election on the horizon. A silver lining for the PN is that it is still benefitting from a slight shift in support. Labour is losing 5.3% of its 2022 voters to the PN, while only 2% of PN’s 2022 voters are moving to Labour.

However, poor polling results risk creating a snowball effect, further demoralising PN supporters and reinforcing the perception of Labour's electoral invincibility. While the survey suggests Labour’s 2022 majority is eroding, the PN risks internal turmoil if it fails to gain ground. The survey suggests that the party has failed to sustain the momentum it gained following its relatively positive showing in the MEP elections.

2. Nearly half of PN voters back the party despite distrusting Grech

Some on social media have speculated that Robert Abela’s 27-point trust lead over Bernard Grech implies Labour’s nine-point advantage could be even greater.

Grech’s low trust rating is largely explained by his limited appeal among his own base. While Abela is trusted by 96% of current PL voters, Grech is trusted by just 58% of current PN voters.

This means a significant portion of PN voters intend to vote for the party despite distrusting its leader. However, only 2.5% of current non-voters trust Grech more than Abela, compared to 25% who trust the prime minister. This suggests Labour may have more room to grow among disillusioned voters. Key to Grech’s low rating is possibly the electorate’s scepticism as to whether he enjoys prime ministerial qualities.

One could argue that a more trusted leader might energise the PN and appeal to non-voters. But without a credible challenger to replace Grech, the PN risks repeating the missteps of the Delia ouster. Nonetheless, keeping Grech as a stop gap measure is surely not helping the party in presenting itself as a government-in-waiting. It suggests that the party has already given up on winning the next election.

3. Labour’s popularity underpinned by a positive government rating

When asked to rate the Abela government on a scale from 0 to 5, voters gave it an average score of 3.1 – up from 2.9 in February and 2.7 in September.

When we introduced the Government Performance Barometer, our goal was to assess the government on its own merits and not in comparison to the PN. The result suggests Labour’s lead is not solely due to distrust in the opposition but because the government is viewed positively in its own right.

A major factor may be the recent budget, which left people with more disposable income. While this does not cancel out concerns about the economic model, rising inequality, low wages, and environmental degradation, it highlights the value voters place on stability, especially in areas like energy costs, pensions, and healthcare.

Yes, part of this “feel-good factor” may stem from effective political messaging and propaganda but such sentiment can fade if people start to feel the pinch.

4. Labour retains strong support amongst working class and lower middle class

The survey shows that an absolute majority of secondary-educated voters intend to vote for the PL.

When non-voters are removed from the equation, Labour’s support in this category amounts to 56%, nine points ahead of the PN. The lead increases to 28 points among those with a primary level of education, a category largely composed of pensioners. Among respondents who have not been to university but have a post-secondary level of education, Labour still leads the PN by nine points. It is only among the tertiary-educated that the PN commands an absolute majority (52%).

This suggests that low- and middle-income earners still perceive Labour to be their safest bet. Despite concerns about certain aspects of the economic model, these groups seem to appreciate stability in energy prices and Labour’s anti-austerity message. In this sense the PN’s major stumbling block remains its failure to reassure these voters that material gains in the past decade won’t be reversed.

5. Momentum and ADPD cannot afford to ignore each other

Third-party support remains fragmented. ADPD retains its traditional level of support, while Momentum has carved out a niche among younger and more educated voters.

Currently, both parties are appealing to a similar demographic on the centre-left. While Momentum has rebranded effectively, this raises the question of why the rebranding didn’t involve a broader coalition with like-minded forces such as ADPD.

It’s not a given that the sum of both parties would be greater than the parts. But fragmentation can reinforce perceptions that third parties are unstable and incapable of the kind of cooperation that voters expect, especially if they are to be seen as viable partners in coalition politics.