Governing in dangerous times

The United Kingdom | Germany | Italy | Spain | Greece | Belgium | Instability of Malta | Ministerial responsibility | The cost of defiance | A government in tethers

The United Kingdom

Ironically, the major threat to stability to the present UK government does not come from the Liberal Democrats – the junior partners in the coalition – but from the right wing of the Tory Party. While the Liberal Democrats have to prove themselves as a party of government, hard-line Tories have tried to assert themselves by demanding a referendum on continued EU membership. Seventy-nine MPs from Cameron's Conservative Party voted for a motion calling for a referendum that would ask UK voters whether they want to stay in the EU, leave or renegotiate the UK's terms of membership. 

Cameron had urged MPs to vote against the motion, saying it was not the right time to try to renegotiate the UK's relationship with the EU while euro zone leaders were trying to solve the debt crisis. The government won the vote with the support of Opposition (Labour) MPs, for a total of 483 MPs voting against the motion.

Britain is not new to such backbench revolts. Despite having won comfortable majorities at general elections, Tony Blair faced a number of interior rebellions on issues ranging from reforms of the national health scheme, to tuition fees. On his decision to participate in the invasion of Iraq (2003) he was openly defied by 139 Labour MPs: thus forcing him to rely on Tory votes. Similarly Cameron can rely on the support of Labour and the Liberals to neutralise the vote of his own euro sceptic rebels. 

Germany

Despite her success in managing the economic crisis, German chancellor Angela Merkel is also facing internal instability. Most of the trouble is brewing in the CDU’s sister party in Bavaria, the more right-wing Christian Social Union. The party has already sounded more critical on the Greek bailout. The latest fight concerns plans for modest tax cuts, and could plunge her government into serious trouble. Bavarian Governor Horst Seehofer, the leader of the CSU, is furious at having been ignored by the CDU and its junior partner the Free Democratic Party (FDP), over plans for tax cuts presented last month. Another headache for Merkel concerns the evaporation of support for her junior coalition partners – the pro business Free Democratic Party – which seems destined to extinction.  By shifting to the left- abandoning nuclear power and accepting the need of a minimum wage-Merkel seems already bent on paving the ground for either a grand coalition with the Social Democrats or a post electoral pact with the environmentalist Greens especially if an alternative red green coalition fails to get an arithmetic majority.

Italy

It was the economic crisis, rather than sexual and corruption scandals which proved to be the undoing of Silvio Berlusconi who had to announce his intention to resign after losing his working majority in parliament in yesterday's vote following the abstention of a number of his party's MPs. After living in denial for the past couple of years, claiming that all was well on the economic front, Berlusconi had to face the reality of the crisis. In fact before Italy was officially certified as one of the sick men of Europe Berlusoni was able to weather the political storm which ensued after he lost the support of his erstwhile ally Gianfranco Fini. He managed to survive thanks to the the support of a motley crew of 21 individual MPs known as the “responsabili”: including three MPs who were previously members of the most virulent anti Berlusconi party, Di Pietro’s Italia Dei Valori. 

This has resulted in accusations that Berlusconi is running a cattle market, by literally buying the votes of single MPs. Despite scandals relating to his personal life and the risk of an economic meltdown, Berlusconi has managed to survive three crucial confidence votes in parliament.

Berlusconi’s own future depended on the support of the euro sceptic and populist Lega Nord, that refuses to accept anything which negatively affects its vote base. Bossi's appeal to Berlusconi to step down could have been the final straw. This makes it difficult for the government to reform the pension system – a key demand of the European Commission and financial markets.

The opposition has asked Berlusconi to step down to allow the formation of a technical government with a mandate to carry out reforms which would be difficult for elected governments to carry out. But Berlusconi has made it clear that the only alternative to his government is elections. The 74-year-old leader now seems destined to a political exit after he announced that he will not lead the political right-wing in a forthcoming election.>

Spain

Despite never losing his parliamentary majority, embattled socialist leader Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero was forced to embark on unpopular reforms, trimming public spending and liberalising the labour market. In a strategic move to save his party’s fortunes, in April 2011 Zapatero announced that he wouldn’t run for a third term in the November 2011 election. The current deputy Prime Minister Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba will be the Socialist candidate. But despite this bold move, the Socialist Party is set to lose the elections to be held on November 20.

Greece

Facing an unprecedented economic meltdown and presiding over a wafer-thin parliamentary majority, Greek Socialist leader George Papandreou managed to scrape through last Friday’s confidence vote with 155 votes out of 300. But he is now expected to resign to make way for a coalition government with the conservative opposition. 

Belgium

Government formation negotiations in Belgium have been going on for 514 days, after an election held in 2010 failed to produce a clear majority. Talks have stalled over how to devolve more powers to the Dutch-speaking North and French-speaking southern regions. The current instability comes in the wake of the success of the separatist Flemish party, which emerged as the biggest party in the country. Belgium’s caretaker government does not have the power to push through harsh austerity measures and hike taxes in the way other euro zone countries have done. Despite this, Belgium registered one of the highest growth rates in Europe. Ironically the lack of austerity is providing a boost to growth. But with a public debt to GDP standing at over 100% (much higher than Malta’s) Belgium will have to undertake austerity measures in the near future or risk collapse.

Instability in Malta

While most European governments face trouble on the crucial economic and foreign affairs front, in Malta Gonzi’s government faces backbench revolts on relatively less vital issues such as divorce and public transport reform. 

The contrast was glaring on Friday, when while Gonzi had to rely on the speaker’s vote to save Austin Gatt, the rest of Europe was held in suspense as the Greek parliament voted on a vote of confidence requested by Papandreou.  Moreover yesterday’s confidence vote in Gonzi’s government coincided with a similar vote in Berlusconi’s government.

But despite the vast difference in circumstances, like Papandreou and Berlusconi Gonzi finds himself asking a vote of confidence in his government to send a message of stability to the country. This is an unprecedented step in post independence Maltese history.

Gonzi had already lost his majority on divorce, when parliament approved the wording of the referendum as proposed by the opposition.  On that occasion Gonzi felt no need of a vote of confidence, despite the fact that two MPs had voted against a line taken by their party.

With regards to the opposition motion of no confidence in Austin Gatt, the government risked losing one of its most prominent ministers who only managed to survive thanks to the casting vote of the speaker.

Ministerial responsibility

The most recent case in Europe of a Minister asked to resign because of failures in his duties was that of Italian Culture Minister, Sandro Bondi.  A motion of censure against Bondi was presented following the collapse of “The Hall of the Gladiators” in Pompeii. The vote was considered by the opposition as a confidence vote in Berlusconi’s entire government. But the vote boomeranged on the opposition because Bondi survived the vote. Bondi was to resign two months later in a letter in which he complained that he was bearing the brunt of spending cuts decided by other Ministers.

The cost of defiance

What is clear is that PN backbenchers are more willing to question the authority of their leader on important but not vital issues – something unimaginable under Eddie Fenech Adami’s tenure. 

While this irreverence to the leader appears strange in Malta it is a normal thing in the rest of Europe where parliamentarians represent vastly different constituencies and parties have a long tradition of internal currents.  In the UK 79 Tory MPs have defied their own Prime Minister on a motion asking for a referendum on EU membership. 

But in the UK defiance comes at a cost especially if those involved hold political office.

David Cameron immediately ordered the sacking of one parliamentary private secretary, Stewart Jackson, after he spoke against the government in the debate on EU referendum motion. Adam Holloway, PPS to the Europe minister David Lidington, stood down after he too announced that he would vote in favour of the referendum. 

A government in tethers

The opposition tactic of exploiting contradictions in the one-seat majority could keep Gonzi on the tethers for the next two years.  This could weaken the government, deviate its focus from the economy and exhaust its energies. While disgruntled backbenchers will probably never deliver a final blow to their government, Gonzi is not in a position to call their bluff without risking the collapse of the government. 

What the backbenchers risk is that their actions risk galvanising support for Gonzi among his core vote.  In Japan former Prime Minister Koizumi won in 2005 by calling a snap election and  turning his guns against party rebels who were obstructing his liberalisation of postal services.

But this path seems unlikely at a time when polls indicate that it would lead to defeat. Like Berlusconi in Italy but probably with less resources in his hands, Gonzi has to engage in the daily struggle of winning the loyalty of single MPs.   Many have interpreted the appointment of backbenchers as parliamentary assistants as an attempt to "buy" their loyalty.

Unlike Zapatero in Spain Gonzi does not seem keen on being replaced on the eve of the next election to give his party a better fighting chance and probably will bank on recognition for keeping the economy afloat in difficult times.  But if he fails in this task and Malta joins the ranks of Italy and Greece he will probably end in the same position as his Greek and Italian counterparts.

But like Merkel who like Gonzi has been spared from the economic ravages of the euro zone, Gonzi has seen his space of political manoeuvre through tax cuts extremely limited.  It remains to be seen whether Gonzi will like Merkel find a way for the implementation of limited version of what he was promised before the election and the financial crisis.