Gonzi, 1998: ‘Sant constitutionally obliged to inform President’

"This saga cannot last forever. It's time for the issue to be settled, once and for all. If the only solution seems to be an early election, then let's go for it."

Prophetic words from the PN's secretary-general in 1998, and ones which will certainly haunt him in 2012 as prime minister: like Alfred Sant, Lawrence Gonzi now faces the prospect of early elections after backbencher Franco Debono robbed him of a one-seat majority.

Even though Gonzi has vowed he will not do the same thing Sant did in 1998 - call for a vote of confidence in parliament - his advice to Sant in the days preceding the crucial Cottonera no-confidence vote certainly sounded far more eloquent.

"Dr Gonzi said it was now crystal clear that the prime minister himself had lost hope of commanding a parliamentary majority... Dr Sant was constitutionally obliged to inform the President on the situation," The Times of 11 June 1998 paraphrased Gonzi as saying.

That was two days after Sant publicly lacerated former Labour leader Dom Mintoff as a traitor, for having voted with the Nationalist Opposition against the Cottonera waterfront project (a 99-year lease of the waterfront to the private sector) that threatened his one-seat majority.

28 days of an overlong parliamentary debate had to pass until Mintoff voted again against the Cottonera motion, bringing to a climax a political crisis that ended Sant's 22-month government.

Gonzi: four options for Sant

Gonzi listed four options for the Labour government then: the first was to pressure Mintoff into resigning; the second was for Sant to make way a for new leader; the third was for Sant to act as if it was business as usual, "the 'steady forward' attitude until this could last"; and the fourth option was an early election. "I don't see a constitutional crisis," Gonzi said. "For sure it is a huge political crisis which implies constitutional obligations," he told The Times.

Even as government ministers today publicly insist that early elections must be avoided, Franco Debono is not expected to resign any time sooner. And an upcoming money bill he intends to vote against will automatically be a vote of no-confidence in the government if the Opposition follows suit.

When Mintoff, feeling alienated from Sant's inner circle, first voted against the Cottonera project, Sant called on his MPs to choose a new prime minister, but his group rallied behind him. He then called for Mintoff's resignation and turned a new motion for the amended Cottonera project into a confidence vote, in a bid to call Mintoff's bluff.

Mintoff's rebellion left Sant unable to function on all cylinders, threatening to defeat upcoming budgetary appropriation bills. Even with his MPs behind him, Sant may have strengthened his position in the party but his government was in a weaker position.

The comparisons between Gonzi's and Sant's conundrum in 1998 now seem uncanny: having won the backing of the party's national executive and MPs, Sant took his conflict with Mintoff to the squares in Vittoriosa and Cospicua. Gonzi already has his MPs' support, and he will secure it again at the forthcoming PN General Council; this Sunday he wil speak in Balzan but it's the party media that has rightly focused on holding Debono's effrontery up to public scrutiny, after withdrawing his support following Gonzi's reshuffle.

But Gonzi already knows he won't be 'doing a Sant' by calling for a confidence vote he is bound to lose. It will have to be the Opposition to move the motion or vote down a forthcoming money bill.