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Survey shows 7-point swing from PN to PL
Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi narrows trust gap with Opposition leader Joseph Muscat to 4 points
22 January 2012, 12:00am
James Debono
James Debono
2 min read
Opposition leader Joseph Muscat and Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi
Recent political events and the increased likelihood of an early election have not significantly altered the political balance with Labour retaining its strong lead over the PN.
In the face of a direct challenge to his leadership from backbencher Franco Debono, Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi has seen his trust rating reaching its highest levels since 2008 in what could by an indication of PN voters closing ranks around their leader on the eve of a crucial confidence vote in parliament next week.
The survey not only puts Labour in the lead but shows a 7 point swing from the PN to the PL, thus confirming a similar trend in previous MaltaToday surveys which have consistently shown the PN losing 6% to 10% of its voters in 2008.
Respondents were asked to state their present voting intention and for which party they had voted for in the 2008 election. They were also asked to state which political leader they trust most.
Significantly while 9% of Nationalist voters in 2008 now intend to vote for the PL, less than 2% of Labour voters in 2008 intend to vote for the PN now.
This indicates a massive 7-percentage point swing from the PN to the PL.
Since June 2011 Lawrence Gonzi has also seen his trust rating improve by a staggering 11 points from just 24% to 35%. The PN leader has now managed to reduce the trust gap between him and Joseph Muscat to just 4 percentage points. Gonzi now enjoys his highest trust rating since 2008.
For which party will you vote for if a general election is held now?
| % | Difference since November | |
|---|---|---|
| PN | 25.5 | 2.1 |
| PL | 34.5 | 3.7 |
| AD | 1.3 | -0.2 |
| Not Voting | 8.5 | 1.5 |
| No Reply | 30.2 | -7.3 |
Electoral Barometer
| March 10 | March 11 | June11 | Sep 11 | Nov 11 | Jan 12 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PN | 18.6 | 23 | 15.5 | 20.3 | 23.4 | 25.5 |
| PL | 34 | 34.3 | 37.5 | 29 | 30.8 | 34.5 |
| AD | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Not Voting | 12.6 | 11 | 8.3 | 10.8 | 7 | 8.5 |
MaltaToday's reputable survey shows that the Labour party is 9 percentage points ahead of the PN and is benefiting from a significant 7-point swing from the Nationalist Party, the MaltaToday survey conducted between Monday and Thursday among 700 respondents shows.
Last Sunday, a Misco survey published in The Sunday Times showed a similar trend, but there were less candid Labour respondents with the Sunday Times.
The MT survey also reveals that since November, when the last MaltaToday electoral survey was held, Lawrence Gonzi has narrowed the trust gap between him and Joseph Muscat from 7 points to 4 points.
This suggests that recent political events and the increased likelihood of an early election have not significantly altered the political balance, with Labour retaining its strong lead over the PN.
In the same survey the main issue of the forthcoming election is a change in government. Corruption registers the lowest concern of all.
James Debono is MaltaToday's chief reporter on environment, planning and land use issues, ...
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@jgalea befor you start singing sweet songs better wait until the end of the coming week. Rallying round the leader is a natural phenomena that as soon as the case comes to a close , whatever the result the percentages start to decrease again.There is no way of appeasing Franco without strings attached as gonzi said today at Zebbug, therefore gonzi does not have much leeway in which to manouver and keep everybody happy he has to step on some toes.
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Zgur li jien personali ma nemmnekx u ma nafdakx Dr. Gonzi!
Inlestu ruhna ghall-biki u t-tnehid dil-gimgha minn Gonzipn & co
Jean-Claude Pace •
One must keep in mind that a large segment of those who voted nationalist in the last election said they would not vote this time, or that they are undecided. Almost all of these will probably end up voting nationalist again this time...Labour cannot and shouldn't take victory for granted.
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Mr Gonzi, it seems that you are not afraid to lose an election..then go for it. If you are so sure that you will win ...then do an election. On the other hand if you are afraid to lose it..just step down and let others do what you cannot do. Ejja tigiegu aghmel l-elezzjoni !!!
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As Joseph Muscat says, the best survey is the General Elections. I do not have much faith in surveys, although i must state that Malta Today's are the best surveys i have ever seen.
@ Jgalea. Don't be too optimistic. I am not. The higher the expectations, the heavier the fall. And please stop with your usual Religio et Patria moaning. The PN is no longer fighting for country or for Church. Remember, Gonzi will be remembered as the one under whose Prime Ministership divorce was introduced in Malta.
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Ma nistax nifhem kif l-Hon Dr L Gonzi zid fil-fiducja 11%. Il-Poplu jaqaw baqa mazzun jibla kollox? Hawn xi hadd fil pajjiz ma qalax xi daqa nobis fuq rasu? Dawk il ftit tal-qalba biss ma marrux hazin ghaliex jekk tilfu xi haga inghataw xi haga ahjar mhux bhal maggoranza tal poplu li tilef il ftit li kellu u baqa biss jilaq xuftejh. Jekk jinghad illi anki min fost shabu tilef il-popolarita mela allura kif zid. Jaqaw ghandu il-bakketta magika? Fil-kas jara kif juza halli jerga igib dawk l-assi li kella Malta u jisparixxi dak id-dejn ta €5 biljuni.
Anette B Cassar •
Given that PL got 3 more seats than PN at last election despite having 1500 less votes, a 12,000 electoral majority could spell a 5 seat majority for PL. That is enough for stability. It can only be hoped that the PL will not be as arrogant as when they had a similar parliamentary majority.
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Attention: jgalea - tick tock.... tick tock .... tick tock .... tick tock .... is-sewwa jirbah zgur. U l-hmieg, il-korruzzjoni, l-arroganza u l-inkompetenza ta' Gonzi PN jispicca jiehu tkaxkira li tkun rekord ghall-istorja tal-elezzjonijiet f'Malta.
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Dr. Gonzi izid bil kbir l appogg. L ahwa ma naqtghux qalbna. Is sewwa jirbah zgur, bhal ma dejjem rebah f dawn l ahhar 25 il sena, u ser ikompli jirbah ghal dejjem. Dr. Gonzi il pajjiz warajk. Il Mulej izomm idejh fuqek, u jmexxik biex nhar il Hamis tirbah, u tigi meta tigi l ghajta, biex inservu lill Patria, il poplu jghid IVA ghal Dr. Gonzi, IVA ghal PN ghal dejjem f isem il motto ta pajjizna "Religio et Patria" :)
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Forsi mhux 7%, imma 5% hemm qeghdin. Li jfissru 12000 sa 15000 voti differenza. Tal-PN ahjar jibdew jahsbu ghall=ixkupilji.
