What will happen next Thursday?

Corrected reference to legal ramifications in Option 2 on Tuesday 24 January, 11:30am.

Option 1: Franco Debono votes with the government

Presently, this seems to be the least likely option, because Debono himself has repeatedly ruled out any reconciliation with the Nationalist Party and its leadership.  Both parties have also given indications that they have set their mighty electoral machines in motion.

But if the impossible happens and Debono returns to the fold, the Labour Party will suffer a demoralising blow and Gonzi will probably be able to navigate in the troublesome waters of the economic crisis till the natural end of the legislature.

While this means that the government will be able to master its power of incumbency and complete projects like City Gate before the election, Gonzi risks being smothered by the crisis engulfing the eurozone.

The government will also have to conduct a budget before the next election in which it will have to show whether the projections made in the last budget were realistic or not. On the other hand, the opposition could be worn down after banking too much on Franco Debono voting against the government to bring about a shotgun election, in which the government's power of incumbency is severely limited.

Option 2:  Franco Debono abstains

Although Franco Debono has already made it amply clear that his intention is that of voting for the opposition's motion, the possibility still exists that he would abstain as he did in the opposition's motion of no-confidence in Transport Minister Austin Gatt.

In this case the opposition motion will simply not pass as such a motion requires a majority of MPs. The constitution states that if the House of Representatives passes a resolution, supported by the votes of a majority of all the members thereof, that it has no confidence in the Government."

If there is no majority for the non confidence motion it simply does not pass. In this scenario, instability will remain an issue. Political uncertainty could also trigger more economic uncertainty.  Gonzi would confirm the perception that he is clinging to power and that his government is on life support.

Although this would be a bitter blow for the opposition in its bid to force an election as soon as possible, it will leave the government extremely weak. In fact, when Debono abstained on the opposition's no-confidence motion in Austin Gatt, Gonzi felt obliged to call for a vote of confidence in his government a few days later.

On that occasion, Gonzi described the confidence vote following Debono's abstention on the Arriva motion as "important to assure the nation of government's stability in this important time of crisis all Europe is facing".

In such a scenario Debono will remain the centre of attention, with the government depending completely on his readiness to shoot down any prospective money bill.  

Option 3: Franco Debono does not turn up in parliament

Debono's absence from parliament will have the same effect as an abstention. But if his absence persists, the government will be spared from the backbencher's criticism and would boost the campaign to make Debono resign. But by turning up in parliament on Thursday, sitting on the last bench on the government side, Debono has dispelled rumours that he intends to evaporate from the parliamentary scene.

Option 4: Franco Debono votes for the opposition's motion

In this case, the Prime Minister will have three days to submit his resignation and advise the President to dissolve parliament. The president would still have the option to appoint someone else "who can command the support of a majority of the members of the House" instead of dissolving parliament. 

But this course of action is extremely unlikely, as anyone appointed by the President will have to enjoy Franco Debono's trust. Although Debono has declared his willingness to support anyone except Lawrence Gonzi, he has also declared that he would not accept a situation where Gonzi resigns from Prime Minister, but not from party leader.

A presidential appointment will also be a highly unorthodox course in a country where all its post-independence Prime Ministers have leaders of parties who won the general election.

So in the likely scenario where the president proceeds to dissolve parliament, a general election has to be called within three months after the dissolution of parliament. In this prerogative, the president must act "in accordance with the advice of the Prime Minister". 

While the country is used to short electoral campaigns - lasting six weeks as was standard practice since 1992 - in 1987 an election was called three months after parliament was dissolved. 

While the PN would gain valuable time by prolonging the election right to the very last day, it also risks invoking parallels with the Karmenu Mifsud Bonnici administration, which used its power of incumbency right up to the last day.

Option 5: Parliament is dissolved before the vote is taken

The Constitution gives the Prime Minister the prerogative to advise the president to dissolve parliament.

Technically, the president can refuse to dissolve parliament if he thinks that an election would not be in the country's interest. But it is extremely unlikely that the president would refuse a demand supported by both government and opposition.

In this case, the Prime Minister would avoid a likely defeat in parliament in a debate which would further expose divisions on the government side. The prime minister could also be apprehensive about the speeches of other backbenchers who might well vote for his government but still make it a point to criticise his leadership.  By asking the president to dissolve parliament, the prime minister would appear decisive and would dispel the perception that he is trying everything to cling to power at all costs.

He would also be in a position to set the tone of the electoral campaign instead of risking a debate where internal divisions would resurface. But if he takes this decision, the prime minister will not be in a position to put the blame on the collapse of his government squarely on the alliance between Debono and the Labour Party. This would mean that Gonzi would lose the only advantage he has now - that of blaming the shotgun election on the opposition. It would also seem awkward if Gonzi aborts the debate after insisting that every MP should speak during the debate.