After GonziPN, the return of the Nationalist Party

Addressing the Nationalist Party's highest organ, PN leader Lawrence Gonzi said that after personally meeting the party's councillors he was in a better position to appreciate that it was the party which had to seek the confidence of the people. "It was not Gonzi who won the last election, but the party as a whole" while adding that it was not enough to be head of government, one had to be a head of government who was close to the people and at the people's disposal to address their needs at all the time.

This could spell the beginning of a completely different electoral strategy in which, contrary to what happened in 2008, the Nationalist Party will not be taking the backseat and Gonzi will not be the only front man of the campaign.

Critically, this time round Gonzi is aware that to have a fighting chance he has to win back that category of the disgruntled voters who had switched to Labour. "The people who intend to vote for the PL after voting PN during the last election need to be sought out," Gonzi said.

Although Gonzi may well have succeeded to postpone the election - a clear sign of this was Franco Debono's participation and endorsement of the one-man contest - it is clear that the leadership contest served another purpose, that of mobilising the party for a long electoral campaign, which has already started.

Busuttil's anointment

One of the most significant steps announced by Lawrence Gonzi on Sunday was the appointment of Simon Busuttil as his special delegate to immediately, through the Academy for the Development of a Democratic Environment (AZAD), organise meetings between him and every sector of the country.

This is a clear indication that Simon Busuttil will be lending his face to the electoral campaign with the strategic role of winning back strategic categories of voters.

But the appointment of a man who is considered by many as one of Gonzi's possible successors, may be problematic as it could create tensions with other undeclared pretenders to the throne.

To avoid this from happening, Gonzi will probably include other strongmen perceived to have leadership ambitions in fronting the campaign, Rising stars in his Cabinet like Mario De Marco might also be assigned a strategic role.

Clearly, instead of being obscured to a background role of a short presidential campaign, this time round ministers will be expected to deliver in a long-winded campaign which risks further blurring the frontiers between state and party.

More importantly through Busuttil, Gonzi will probably embark on a plan to rope in personalities from civil society.

Possibly even Franco Debono might be given a role as the voice of disgruntlement within the party even if this could prove to be a potential minefield.

This could be a prelude to a new style of campaigning reminiscent of Alfred Sant's successful run in 1996 when he was flanked by George Vella and George Abela in a triumvirate.  Will Busuttil and De Marco flank Gonzi in next year's election?

Running on a team platform could be the PN's best answer to Joseph Muscat's increasingly presidential style of campaigning through which the PL is presenting itself as a rainbow coalition of diverse candidates glued together by Muscat's charisma.

By reverting back to the PN formula, Gonzi could be responding to surveys, which clearly show Joseph Muscat winning a personality clash with Gonzi.

Gonzi may have also understood that self-inflicted mistakes like the secrecy characterising the honoraria issue and his vote against divorce after the referendum, may well have irremediably dented his trust rating among crucial segments of the electorate.

On the other hand surveys show the PN has a better fighting chance when it comes to choosing between the concrete economic policies of both parties.

Too little, too late?

Still, the highly unpopular one-man contest has not solved all the PNs internal problems. Even if Debono is brought in line and votes for the government, the leadership contest itself has entrenched the perception that the Nationalist Party is Gonzi's personal property.

It also created the impression that Gonzi only resorted to the party in a moment of difficulty for his leadership. In fact, in the past year, the party was only brought into action to respond to the leadership's quandaries, first by adopting a stance against divorce after Gonzi had committed himself for a referendum, than to discuss the Arriva fiasco following Debono's threat to abstain on a confidence vote in Austin Gatt and finally to re-elect the leader after the Prime Minister effectively lost his majority in parliament.

And more significantly the contest itself was far from an ideal launching pad for the upcoming campaign.

Not only was the one-man contest interpreted by many middle- of-the-road voters as a farce, but it also exposed old and new divisions, with two backbench MPs, a former minister and a former party president not even collecting their vote.

Although Gonzi faced the calculated risk of a secret vote, the perception out there was that Gonzi was seeking a triumph in a college whose loyalty was never in question.

Apart from the personalities who have drifted from the sinking ship, the major problem for the PN is that of recomposing its hegemonic block-something, which could need a more radical solution than a reshuffling of cards and personalities.

One stumbling block for a campaign priding itself on the PN's heritage is that the perception that Gonzi has morphed the party in to his image.

The only way to counter this image is to diminish the importance of personalities and emphasise that of the political programme, to which even people critical of Gonzi can subscribe to.

To challenge this perception, Gonzi will be expected to take concrete steps to come up with an inclusive formula aimed at recomposing Malta's most durable political hegemonic block. 

He has also to send clear signs that his confirmation as party leader will not be translated in to absolute power. For magnanimity in victory has never been Gonzi's strong point. 

One clear sign of openness would the recognition that the PN is in itself a coalition of Christian conservatives, Christian liberals and liberals who are not even Christian, something already declared by Busuttil in an interview in MaltaToday last Sunday. But this has to be tested by the concrete behaviour of the party on issues like cohabitation and IVF.

Chess player

Surely Gonzi did a good job of making the best of a bad moment. He has proved his reputation as a master chess player when it comes to the art of political survival and sheer tenacity.  But ultimately the greatest fear for the PN is that the game could be already over.

The major problem for Gonzi is that people may have already made up their mind that the country needs a change in government. 

But Gonzi will surely make sure that people will start having their doubts.

Interestingly even Gonzi's "closer to the people" theme is reminiscent to his speech when he was appointed secretary general in the aftermath of the 1996 defeat. 

On that occasion Gonzi stressed that the party should not simply hear but listen-something, which he seems to have forgotten in the past years.

Yet, extreme times require extreme measures. And in the next months one can only expect the unexpected from a politician whose best quality seems to be that of surviving against all odds.