Local councils 2012: the battle of the underdogs

The battle for the councils | Onslaught on Mosta | Labour's long shot - St Paul's Bay | The Sliema hotspot | How the localities fare 

Key facts

• 17 councils currently have a Labour majority.
• 17 councils currently have a Nationalist majority.
• Floriana is only council with no overall majority.
• If Sliema is not included Labour starts with 52% majority against PN's 46%.
• If  Sliema is included Labour starts with 50% majority against PN's 47%.
• In Mosta, PL starts with a 427 vote advantage over the Nationalists.
• In Sliema, PN starts with a 3,374 vote advantage over Labour.
• In the previous round (2007/2008), AD won two council seats in Swieqi and Attard.

Having been in government for the last 14 years and the more recent political unrest which led to the parliamentary no-confidence vote in government, the Nationalist Party starts at an obvious disadvantage. On the other hand the Labour Party is attempting to keep expectations down and wash off charges of arrogance and over-confidence.

The electoral campaign for next week's local council elections has been characterised by Labour's intensive drive to get out its voters and consolidate the clear lead it enjoys and the Nationalist Party's low-key campaign.

Over the past few weeks, the Labour Party has held daily press conferences and public meetings in the 35 localities where elections will be held on 10 March, with PL leader Joseph Muscat fronting the campaign. The party is clearly aiming to consolidate its majority in the localities going to the ballot next week. 

Labour goes into next week's elections to be held in 34 localities with a 52% majority, achieved in the previous rounds in 2007 and 2008. The majority is reduced to slightly more than 50% after the Sliema local council was dissolved and added in this round of elections. The PL's intensive campaign saw Joseph Muscat take the centre stage and outgoing councillors and prospective candidates taking the back seat. Labour's propensity not to give prominence to its candidates is evidenced by its decision to be represented by party officials instead of candidates on the televised debates organised by the Broadcasting Authority.

On the other hand, the Nationalist Party chose to hold a low-key campaign focusing it on Mosta, where the PN hopes to regain the majority it lost in 2007. In the last few weeks, the PN did not hold any press conferences or public meetings in any of the localities where elections will be held. Instead, the party and its supporters were kept busy by the leadership contest in which PN leader Lawrence Gonzi was reconfirmed with an overwhelming majority.

During Lawrence Gonzi's speech at the end of the PN General Council, accusations of putting the party's interests ahead of the country's needs and the local council elections were astutely turned into a reaching out campaign aimed at "regaining the people's trust by listening and understanding the people's concerns, hurts and aspirations".

The third party, Alternattiva Demoktratika, is contesting in almost one-third of the 35 localities and has taken a calculated gamble in fielding its chairperson Michael Briguglio in Sliema. He is one of 10 AD candidates contesting elections. The Green Party has put in a valiant effort in trying to make itself visible despite the limited resources at its disposal.  

Last year, in an interview with MaltaToday, Briguglio had set an ambitious but not completely impossible benchmark for his party. Referring to the forthcoming local council elections, he said: "If AD gets elected it will be a success. But if not, it would be a disaster. But I am still confident we will succeed."

Compared to previous local council elections, this year's campaign has not dominated the headlines, and this is partly due to the PN's low profile and the re-election of Lawrence Gonzi as PN leader.

Next week's election will be the 17th round of local council elections held since 1993.

The Labour Party only started contesting local elections as a party in 1999. Since then 11 elections have been held and the PL has won all elections but one, the 2003 round which was held on the same day as the EU referendum, which had a higher than normal voter turnout and the EU issue inevitably galvanised the Nationalist vote. The party in opposition is naturally at an advantage in mid-term local and European Parliament elections as the party in government suffers from voter discontent and a higher than average abstention. This is not a phenomenon exclusive to Malta but this happens to the majority of parties in government around the world. The Nationalist Party enters these elections with a clear disadvantage. The February survey published by MaltaToday places the Labour Party 13 percentage points ahead of the PN and revealed that Joseph Muscat is leading Lawrence Gonzi by 12 points in trust. The survey results do not necessarily reflect the mood in the 35 localities to hold elections on 10 March however the trends will surely have some kind of bearing on the local elections.

Beyond the percentages the two major parties will gain on Saturday, success will be primarily measured by the outcome of the Mosta, St Paul's Bay and Sliema elections. The Greens will be looking to elect the largest number of councillors possible, however the party's realistic target would be to gain election on the councils it had already been represented on in the past, namely Sliema, Swieqi and Attard.

The battle for the councils

Labour leader Joseph Muscat has claimed that the Labour Party starts as an underdog in these elections.

In reality, the PL started the contest with a 52% majority  (achieved in the 2007 and 2008 rounds) in the original list of 34 localities. But the majority was reduced being just slightly higher than 50% after the Sliema council was dissolved.

Among the 35 localities in which elections will take place next week, Mosta, Gzira and Xaghra (Gozo) are the only localities to have ever changed their majority since 1999, when Labour began contesting local elections as a party.

Labour won all three marginal councils in 2007. In Gzira, the PN had already lost its majority in 2001, when there was no overall majority after an independent was elected. 

Not surprisingly, these are the only three localities which can be won back by the Nationalist Party.

The only other locality included in this round to have switched sides was Qormi, which switched from Labour- backed independents to the PN in 1997. But this locality is now considered to be 'deep Labour' territory, with Labour surpassing the 60% mark in the past two elections.

So which are the key battlegrounds in the forthcoming election?

Onslaught on Mosta

Mosta, the largest locality in this round of elections, is the prize that the PN is trying to gain back at all costs through a targeted media campaign.

In the four contests before 2007, the PN had won this election, with majorities varying from 62% in 1998 to just 51% in 2004. 

But following a focused media campaign directed against former mayor Giovanni De Martino and a tender awarded for the services of a handyman, Labour managed to snatch the Mosta prize in 2007 with a wafer-thin one-seat majority after winning 50.6%. In that election, the PN saw its support in Mosta fall to a historic low of 46%.

But following the election of new mayor Paul Chetcuti Caruana, the council was brought to a paralysis due to factional infighting within the Labour camp marked by rivalries between the mayor and deputy mayor Josette Agius Decelis, wife of Labour MP Anthony Agius Decelis.

Despite the state of paralysis, the government has refrained from dissolving the council, as it did in Sliema, in what has been interpreted as a political strategy to let the council implode. Neither did Labour nip the problem in the bud by disciplining its own councillors before things deteriorated irremediably.

The PN media has taken full advantage of this situation, highlighting the failures of these councils and transforming Mosta in to the main battleground in this round of local elections.

Underlying the PN's campaign is an attempt to convey a national message from the quandaries of Mosta's Labour-led majority. The PN media has depicted events in Mosta as a clear warning of what could happen to the rest of the country if Labour is elected on the promise of change. In fact, the PN media keeps reminding people of the concerted campaign Labour led in 2007 to unseat a Nationalist majority, only to replace it with a dysfunctional Labour council.

The PL has reacted by presenting a new team of councillors and ditching its former mayor. Labour's team includes newcomer Rachel Tua, who hails from a Nationalist background. Only two incumbents from the previous council are contesting with Labour. AD, which over the past months has campaigned against the unsightly development in Wied il-Ghasel, could have a bearing on the result considering the narrow advantage the PL has over the PN.

Labour's long shot - St Paul's Bay

Interestingly, Labour has upped its efforts in St Paul's Bay - a solid Nationalist-led locality where the party enjoyed a not insurmountable majority of 54% in the last council election. Labour has never won a majority in this council.

The Labour media has focused on the poor state of the roads, the state of neglect in Bugibba and the absence of car parks, and has targeted mayor Graziella Galea (daughter of former Minister Censu Galea) for these shortcomings.  Galea has reacted to the concerted attack on the Labour media by presenting a libel suit against One TV.

Labour has also presented it proposals for the embellishment of the Erba Mwiezeb housing estate.

One determining factor in this election could be the high number of citizens hailing from other EU countries living in this locality, even if most of these tend to abstain. Another factor will be the performance of the AD candidate. Gzira is another swing locality, which could be in the balance. The PL could also try to upset the PN's hold in Safi which forms part of the fifth district - contested by maverick MP Franco Debono. In the last election, the PN won the locality by a narrow margin but it can still bank on widespread respect for its mayor Pietru Pawl Busuttil.

The Sliema hotspot

The new Sliema council will be serving for a single year before the next round of elections due next year.

But this will be a strategic year for the Nationalist Party, during which it will be expected to deliver to voters in one of its core constituencies. In this sense, the PN could not afford relying on a dysfunctional council in which it had lost its majority. 

The most recent local election in 2009 was dominated by factional infighting between district heavyweights like Robert Arrigo and George Pullicino, who pushed rival candidates.  At the end of the day, it was Nicky Dimech - a Robert Arrigo acolyte - who won the race for the mayorship of Sliema.

This choice clearly backfired on Arrigo after he had to disown Dimech who is presently facing bribery allegations in court. His successor Johanna Gonzi failed to leave a mark and will not be contesting the forthcoming election.

One of the PN candidates contesting next week's election is Paul Radmilli, a member of George Pullicino's secretariat. This can be interpreted as an attempt by Pullicino to gain a foothold in the council in the run-up to the general election.

A number of new candidates including controversial businessmen and circus organiser Silvio Zammit have joined the fray. Zammit was recently in the news after pressing charges against a young animal rights activist for calling him a "clown". 

The PN will also be fielding Vivianne Mary Galea Pace, wife of former Gozitan Nationalist MP Victor Galea Pace and Antoinette Castaldi Paris, mother of outspoken Lija mayor Ian Castaldi Paris.

Although it is nearly impossible for Labour to overturn the locality's strong Nationalist majority, the PN could see its majority weaken due to a haemorrhage of votes to AD and the likelihood of a high abstention rate.

On their part, the Greens have taken a big gamble by fielding the party leader Michael Briguglio as a candidate. Failure to elect him could cost the party dearly, but his election would put the Greens back on the map.

Briguglio had narrowly missed being elected in 2008 after serving two consecutive terms on the same council between 2003 and 2009.

AD can bank on Briguglio's high national profile and his experience and track record on local issues, but AD could suffer if voters express their protest by not voting.

Labour's attempts to score gains in this council have been hampered by the absence of long-standing councillor Martin Debono, who served in the council since the mid-90s. Once again,  the party will be relying on council veteran Maryanne Aquilina, whose integrity is beyond reproach.

Neither could Labour field the savvy deputy mayor Cyrus Engerer who defected from the PN in the aftermath of the divorce campaign, but who is still facing proceedings in court.

A test in the strongholds

All three parties will be testing their strength in their respective strongholds. Although majorities in these localities are not in question, parties will be able to test their strength to mobilise their core voters.

Of particular significance to the PN are elections in the 10th district stronghold particularly in Swieqi, Sliema and St Julian's and other affluent middle-class localities like Attard and Balzan.

In these localities the PN always had to contend with high levels of abstentions which might reach new record levels this time round.

Significantly, in all these localities the PN will be also be facing competition from AD, which in the past has been considered a safe bet in local elections by pale blue voters who returned to the fold in national elections.

In Attard, AD will be defending its sole incumbent in the race: Ralph Cassar.

Due to the limitations imposed by the electoral system, local councils may well prove to be AD's best chance at proving itself in office.

On the other hand, Labour will also be facing tests in deep red territories like Isla and Birgu as well as in southern localities like Marsa, Poala, B'Bugia and Marsaxlokk.

The question in these localities is the extent of Labour's victory. This will give an indication of the party's ability to mobilise its core vote.

How the localities fare

Pale red: Localities in which Labour has never lost council majority since it started contesting in 1999 but majority is in the 50-55% range.
Deep red: Localities in which Labour has never lost its council majority since it started contesting in 1999 and enjoys a majority of over 55%.
Pale blue: Localities in which the PN has never lost council majority since 1999 but majority is in the 50%-55% range.
Deep blue: Localities in which the PN has never lost council majority since 1999 and enjoys majority of over 55%.

Pale Red
Zebbug (54%)

Deep Red
Birgu (78%)
Isla (72%)
B'Bugia (72%)
Marsa (69%)
Santa Lucija (69%)
Marsaxlokk (69%)
Zurrieq (67%)
Kirkop (65%)
Dingli (65%)
Paola (65%)
Luqa (63%)
Qormi  (63%)
Hamrun  (58%)

Pale Blue
Munxar (46.3%)
Safi (51%)
St Paul's Bay (55%)

Deep Blue
Balzan (75%)
Swieqi (73%)
Sliema (68%)
San Lawrenz  (67%)
Ghajnsielem (67%)
Zebbug Gozo (63%)
St Julians (62%)
Attard (61%)
Qala (61%)
Iklin (58%)
Kercem (58%)
Siggiewi (58%)
Gharghur (58%)
Nadur (57%)

Swing localities (all currently led by Labour)
Mosta PL  51%
Gzira PL 52%
Xaghra Gozo PL 53%

No overall majority
Floriana