The real swing: PL gains 3,213 votes in 22 localities

Overall, the Labour Party improved its vote tally by just 270 votes on the previous round of elections in the 35 localities, in which local elections were held on Saturday.

But this figure is somewhat misleading. This is because in 13 localities, the elections in the previous round (2008) coincided with general elections and in the case of Sliema with MEP elections. In these 13 localities, both parties experienced a drop in their vote tally, because of the much higher turnout in the previous round when local elections were combined with national elections.

St Paul's Bay is a clear case of this. In this locality, Labour lost 119 votes while the PN lost a more substantial 1,859 votes. 

Therefore, a better way to assess the state of the parties is to compare the result in 22 localities, which had an election on Saturday with that in the previous round held in 2007.

In these localities, while Labour gained 3,213 new votes, the PN lost 865 votes.

This does not necessarily mean that voters have shifted from one party to the other.  It could also be the case of greater participation of Labour-oriented voters in the election or that new voters in some localities were more inclined to vote Labour.

This was probably the case in Attard, where despite the 3% drop in turnout, valid votes increased by 176. Attard was one of those localities which experienced an increase in population, to the extent that its seats were increased from seven to nine. In this case, both major parties increased their vote - the PN vote increasing by 49, the Labour vote by 227. AD lost 100 votes over 2007 but still got elected after inheriting 40 votes on the second count from the surplus of the PN Mayor Stefan Cordina - an indication that in this case AD lost more first count votes to the PN.  Probably in this case Labour benefited more from the influx of new voters.

Another locality which saw a substantial increase in Labour voters was Swieqi. In this locality, Labour gained 267 more votes than in 2007, the PN lost five votes while AD lost 137 votes.

Despite an 11% drop in turnout, the locality also saw an increase of 120 in the number of votes. Once again, this was due to the increase in population in this locality. This is another indication that younger couples moving in Nationalist strongholds like Swieqi and Attard tend to gravitate towards Labour.

Siggiewi saw the number of votes cast increase by 281 compared to the 2007 election. In this round of elections, Labour gained 301 and the PN lost 161 votes. In this case, Labour could have won some votes from the PN and has probably taken the lion share of new voters.

Safi is the clearest case of a shift of votes from PN to PL. In this case,  the PN lost 51 votes while Labour won 145 votes. But even in this locality, the difference could be partially explained by 102 new votes. This shift could also possibly be explained by the return of Labour voters who used to vote for popular Mayor Peter Paul Busuttil out of respect. Safi,  which had always elected a Nationalist council on previous occasions has always been considered an anomaly in a Labour-oriented district.

The loss of Safi also comes in the wake of major PN losses in Labour-led Zurrieq and Marsaxlokk, which form part of the fifth electoral district contested by Franco Debono.

On the other hand, Gzira seems to be a clear case of the PN losing to abstention. In this locality, the PN lost 427 votes, AD retained the same number of voters while Labour only gained 32 new votes. As a result, the PL strengthened a majority first achieved in 2007.

Another locality where the PN decreased its vote was St Julian's (where the last round coincided with the general election). In this locality, the PN lost a staggering 1,545 votes from its 2008 tally, even if it retained its majority. On the other hand Labour also lost 319 votes.

Another locality where both parties suffered major losses was Zebbug, where the last round was also held in 2008. In this locality, Labour lost 765 votes, while the PN lost a more drastic 1,617. 

The key battlegrounds

Exceptional Mosta

Mosta is an exceptional case where the PN increased its vote tally significantly by 463 votes, while the PL only increased its votes by 10.

Since 2007, the number of actual votes increased by 451 even if the turnout dropped by 4%. This could be an indication that the drop in turnout mainly affected Labour. In the end Labour still won 12 more votes than the PN in the first count. 

What proved crucial in the end were AD's 242 votes. When the AD candidate was eliminated in the 11th count, while Labour inherited 40 of its votes, 120 were inherited by the PN. The rest were non-transferable. The PN also got the fair share of the votes of former Labour councillor Paul Agius, who this time around contested as an independent candidate.

All in all, Mosta shows that in one of the few cases where the PN mobilised its full resources, it was able to block the haemorrhage of votes and motivate its supporters to vote. On the other hand, Labour was penalised by the performance of the previous council. AD emerged as kingmaker but it failed to exploit disenchantment over Labour's failed promise of change in the locality.

A greener Sliema

In many ways Sliema also defied the national trend. In this case, Labour did not benefit from the PN's massive losses while AD managed to increase its vote despite the drop in the turnout and the presence of independent candidates.

In Sliema, the number of valid votes increased by 1,774 votes over 2009, while turnout decreased from 65% to just 42%.

Despite the intensity of Labour's campaign to discredit the previous PN council, Labour lost 372 votes over 2009's. On the other hand, the PN lost a staggering 1,666 votes.

Interestingly, the PN is back to the same percentage it had in 2006, when it garnered 61% of the vote.

Despite the massive decrease in turnout, AD, represented by its leader Michael Briguglio, increased its vote tally in 2009 by 28 votes and its percentage from 5.7% to 8%. 

Moreover, an independent candidate backed by the Sliema Residents Association, Melody Morgan-Busher, which like AD campaigned against rampant construction, won 178 votes (3%). Not surprisingly, when she was eliminated, 54% of her votes were inherited by AD.

Controversial Nationalist candidate Julian Galea only managed to get elected in the last count. While in 2009, Galea started the race with 293 votes, this time around he started the race with 233 votes. And while in 2009 Galea was elected with a quota in the 13th count, this time he was elected without a quota in the final - 17th - count.  This shows that Galea's Labour-phobic comments had a negative impact on his performance, but not enough to deny him a seat on the council.

Storming St Paul's Bay

The PL's greatest prize in these elections was St Paul's Bay, a locality dominated by the PN since the advent of local councils. Labour's strategy of winning the locality was clear during the campaign, when the party embarked on a campaign to discredit Mayor Graziella Galea.

But in this locality it is impossible to gauge whether there have been a shift from the PN to the PL because of the dramatic fall in turnout from 65% to 38%.

In actual fact, the abstention had a deeper impact on the PN, which saw its votes decrease by 2,129 when compared to 2008. On its part, the Labour tally dropped by 372 votes.

This indicates that Labour's campaign paid off in demoralising an apathetic Nationalist one, and was more effective in mobilising its core vote.  

Labour's inroads in Gozo

The most spectacular Labour victory in Gozo took place in Qala, where the locality switched to Labour for the first time. In this locality, the PN lost 91 votes when compared to its 2007 result while Labour gained 168 new votes. The number of votes cast in this locality increased by 77 votes.

Labour also retained its majority in Xaghra, a locality it had first won in 2007. In this locality the PN increased its 2007 vote by 32, while Labour increased its tally by 56.

Turnout fell drastically in Zebbug from 59% in 2007 to just 46% now. In this locality, both parties lost 70 votes each. 

PN losses were sharper in Nadur,  where the party lost 374 votes and where Labour also lost 255 votes.

Overall in Gozo, both parties lost votes over the previous round. But while the PN lost a staggering 976 votes Labour only lost 45.