[ANALYSIS] The blame game continues…

Once again it is Franco Debono who holds the ace of spades in a vote where he is technically free of any responsibility for bringing the government down while still being in a position of inflicting maximum damage on the government. 

For even if Debono votes for the first time with the opposition next Wednesday, the government can still stay on till the end of its mandate.

But Debono also has reasons to fear that if he votes with the opposition, his vote could also give Gonzi the perfect alibi for holding an early election after the summer. If that is the case, Debono could well take the full blame for such an eventuality.

The Opposition, on its part, risks being caught in the middle of a feud which is nauseating many middle of the road voters.  

By dedicating maximum time for the debate on this motion, the government may well have set a trap for the opposition. For the risk for Labour is that the long- winded parliamentary debate will give the impression that the Opposition is only interested in tripping the government.

If Debono abstains

Surely, if Franco Debono abstains as he did in November when parliament discussed a similar motion with regards to Austin Gatt's handling of the public transport reform, nothing would change. In that case, the Opposition's motion will not pass. 

Carmelo Mifusd Bonnici will be humiliated as it would be clear that he does not enjoy the support of the majority of the house. But he would stay on as minister as Austin Gatt did after the November vote, thanks to the Speaker's casting vote.

Following a similar result in November, Lawrence Gonzi did feel the need of calling a confidence vote in his government. If he does so again he would throw the ball back in Debono's court, banking on the calculation that Debono will never bring the government down. Gonzi would emerge strengthened once again.

If he abstains, Debono would once again have led the Opposition into a brick wall. His credibility amongst Labourites would be fatally dented. Other voters would probably detest the fact that Debono has repeatedly taken the country to the brink of a political crisis only to perform a coitus interreptus at the very final moment.

If Debono votes against

But if for the first time Debono does vote with the Opposition and the Opposition motion passes, Gonzi would face a quandary. 

Such a vote would be highly symbolic. For so far Debono has never taken the decisive step of breaking ranks with the government and voting with the Opposition. So far, Debono has only went as far as abstaining in a vote of censure in Austin Gatt and in a vote of confidence called by the Opposition in January.

For this time round, Gonzi cannot bank on Debono's ultimate weakness, his fear of being blamed for bringing the government down. But although technically such a vote has no bearing on the government's survival, Debono will still be blamed for inflicting damage on the government and possibly undermining its ability to continue governing right up to the end.

Gonzi may well call Debono's bluff by linking the vote on Mifsud Bonnici to the survival of his government.  This would throw the ball in Debono's court again. But the PM would be risking big time, fully knowing that his party is still thousands of votes behind Labour. It is more likely that such pressure will be exercised by individual MPs like Edwin Vassallo.

On his part, Debono is correct in making a distinction between a vote on the individual responsibility of a particular minister and a vote on the collective performance of the government. If Debono wanted to bring the government down he would have voted against the Budget Implementation Bill. 

If he votes against the government, Debono may well boast that he has outmanoeuvred the Prime Minister by getting a date for the motion against the home affairs minister in return for his support for the money bill. But still Debono cannot avoid paying a heavy price for voting with the Opposition, an act which will inevitably be interpreted as betrayal by die-hard Nationalist voters. 

A censured minister?

One variable which has still to be determined is whether the Speaker will rule against the Opposition amendment to turn its motion of censure in to one asking for the resignation of the home affairs minister.

It remains a mystery why Tonio Borg objected to the Opposition's amendment.

Does this suggest that Gonzi might be tempted to keep Mifsud Bonnici on board even if a majority of the House decided to censure him?

Keeping Carmelo Mifsud Bonnici on board despite a vote of cenure in parliament would raise questions on whether the government still respects the rules of parliamentary democracy. So although technically possible as the Prime Minister retains the constitutional prerogative of appointing his ministers, this scenario would put the Prime Minister in a politically untenable position.

Probably a more likely outcome of such of a vote would be Mifsud Bonnici offering his resignation out of his own free will. This might well be a more honourable exit for the minister than being kicked out by Franco Debono in collusion with the Opposition.

But the Prime Minister may still retain Mifsud Bonnici in his Cabinet while appointing a new minister for home affairs. This could be followed by a vote of confidence in the government, in which Debono would have no choice but to keep the government afloat rather than facing the opprobrium of rank-and-file Nationalists blaming him for handing over the country to Muscat.

If the Opposition motion is amended, calling directly on Mifsud Bonnici to resign, it would clearly leave less space for manoeuvre for Gonzi. But the outcome would not be much different as the resignation of the minister would be inevitable in both scenarios. For as Franco Debono himself pointed out in parliament, there is little difference between being censured and being asked to resign.

An alibi for Gonzi?

On the other hand, Debono's vote for the Labour motion could be a blessing in disguise if Gonzi decides to hold an election after the summer recess. Such a decision depends on whether it suits the government to present a budget in October. 

A pre-electoral budget would be a golden opportunity for the government to target potential voters with fiscal incentives and to show that Malta is faring well despite the international storms around it. Therefore in normal circumstances, it won't be in Gonzi's interest to lose such an opportunity.

But this depends on the government's ability to reach the targets set in last year's Budget and on the troubled international scenario. But rather than admitting its inability to present a budget, Gonzi might well blame Debono for making it impossible for him to continue governing by knocking down one of his ministers.

Irrespective of the nature of the vote, which is clearly one on ministerial responsibility, the hidden threat of the Prime Minister of holding an early election and blaming it on him, still weighs heavily on Debono. 

Rumours of an early election were given a boost by a mass public e-mail sent by Austin Gatt appealing for volunteers for the electoral campaign.

But rather than an imminent sign of an early election, the e-mail may well have been meant to add pressure on Debono not to be responsible for triggering an election.

In reality, the hint of early elections immediately after the summer recess could be more related to the ongoing blame game between the Prime Minister and Debono than with the Prime Minister's real intentions.

Ultimately, Debono still faces next Wednesday's vote with the sword of Damocles of an early election, which could wipe both him and the Nationalist Party, hanging on his head. 

If Debono votes in favour

This seems a very unlikely option considering Debono's highly charged criticism of Mifsud Bonnici over the past months. It would surely signify Debono's unconditional retreat and his return to the fold. But it would also mean that Debono would be losing any leverage he has on Gonzi despite having burned any electoral prospects due to his past behaviour.