[ANALYSIS] Gonzi back in the driving seat, but for how long?

Post-Mifsud Bonnici blues | The Cachia Caruana minefield | Gonzi gains room for manoeuvre

After winning the confidence vote on Monday, Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi stood in front of his Parliamentary group - minus Franco Debono - and stoically declared that his government had just won a "clear and unconditional" vote of confidence.

Minutes earlier, the unpredictable Franco Debono voted with his fellow government MPs and Gonzi secured a clear-cut vote of confidence for the first time since 8 November 2011.

Since December, Gonzi's majority has been wobbly, to say the least, and this was not only caused by Debono's antics but the Prime Minister's short-sightedness and indecisiveness played a crucial part too.

In his speech in Parliament, Debono confirmed his unwillingness to go down in history as the MP who brought his own government down. Before voting with government, he declared: "I am ready to help the prime minister implement the reforms I have long been talking about."

After garnering a majority, Gonzi can now breathe a sigh of relief... however, this has come at the cost of losing his home affairs minister.

Despite securing a clear majority without needing the Speaker's casting vote (as happened in January), Gonzi has no guarantee that all will be rosy in the next few weeks and months.

After seeing Mifsud Bonnici resign, Debono can now concentrate on pushing for the reforms he has been barking about for years, but his impulsiveness can change Gonzi's game-plan any day. 

Debono insisted on the implementation of political and democratic reforms such as the law he drafted on political party financing. Justice Minister Chris Said has said the bill will be discussed in Parliament shortly, but Debono's bill joins a list of other controversial laws - such as IVF and civil partnerships - which could potentially create further problems for Gonzi.

Speaking in Parliament this week, Gonzi also hinted that his government is determined to see out the rest of the legislature, which expires in spring. He said that his government is now gearing up for the 2013 Budget. Yet this could prove to be another stumbling block since the budget will have to abide to the stringent EU fiscal pact.

A more pressing concern is the Richard Cachia Caruana vote, to be taken on 18 June, in which Gonzi could face further embarrassment. Any further ramblings on the backbench will simply exacerbate the climate of uncertainty in the country. 

Post-Mifsud Bonnici blues

The government's insistence that the Opposition's motion calling for Carm Mifsud Bonnici's resignation was unfair might have struck a chord with middle-of-the-road voters for whom the minister not only came across as a nice guy, but indeed did not fare worse than other Cabinet members. 

Other ministers have been equally incompetent and weak. Despite Debono's and Labour's justified criticism, Mifsud Bonnici was a likeable person who rated among the best ministers in MaltaToday polls. Ironically, just before Labour tabled the motion last year, he was the most popular minister among Labour voters.   

Although Debono led a personal crusade against Mifsud Bonnici for both noble and less noble reasons, it later transpired that his decision to vote in favour of the opposition's motion calling for the minister's resignation was determined by failed negotiations with the prime minister.

It is very doubtful whether Debono would have ever considered voting against the motion - even if the negotiations were successful - but his admission that he only voted with the opposition because no agreement was reached with Gonzi says more about Debono's ego than it does on Mifsud Bonnici's failings.

The PN's strategy to portray Mifsud Bonnici as a victim of the opposition's ruthless opportunism not only helped galvanise the party's grassroots. It has also fuelled the perception that the Labour Party is entangled in Debono's strings. This perception has been strengthened by the opposition's motions against Mifsud Bonnici and Malta's Permanent Representative to the EU Richard Cachia Caruana.

Political analysts are viewing Labour's attempt to topple government with increasing scepticism and this feeling could be shared by floating voters and pale-blue voters who might be tempted to switch allegiance in the forthcoming elections. Muscat's claims that the opposition is only carrying out its duty in scrutinising the government are unconvincing, seeing that Labour's targets are identical to Debono's.

On the other hand, while Gonzi's decision to take on Mifsud Bonnici's hefty portfolio might have come across as decisive, it has also raised doubts about his ability to juggle both jobs successfully.

The opposition leader has pointed out that unlike other occasions, Gonzi has not picked one of his backbenchers to serve as Parliamentary Secretary under his guidance to then relieve him from the job, as Gonzi did with Tonio Fenech and Mariode Marco. Muscat said the prime minister is wary of rocking the boat and face further problems within his parliamentary group. However, Gonzi might have a trick up his sleeve and win back credibility by making a determined proposal on a sensitive issue such as migration.

In fact, during Friday's EU Justice and Home Affairs Council, Justice Minister Chris Said called on fellow EU Member States and the European Commission to show solidarity with Malta, following the recent influx of illegal immigrants and asylum seekers from Libyan shores.

Although taking a firm stand in Europe will score points for Gonzi with the national electorate, he must be aware that proposing a change to the Dublin Treaty (the convention which regulates burden-sharing) will fall on deaf ears in Europe.

Another possible move for Gonzi could be to strike an agreement with Libya on migration.

The Libyan Interior Minister Fawzi Abdel Aal will be visiting Malta in the coming days for talks which will focus on migration. This could provide Gonzi an opportunity to appear bold on a sensitive and controversial issue while maintaining a humanistic approach.  

The Cachia Caruana minefield

Defeat for the government on the opposition's motion censuring permanent ambassador Richard Cachia Caruana looks unlikely. However, with the vote being over a week away, Gonzi cannot sleep too comfortably.

Although the opposition's argument that Cachia Caruana had secretly colluded with a foreign government to re-negotiate Malta's Partnership for Peace membership has proven to be feeble, a second consecutive defeat could make the government's position untenable.

The opposition's motion urges the prime minister to demand the resignation of his most trusted aide and Cabinet member.  

While Debono has gone on record that he will not vote for this motion, doubts linger on how another Nationalist MP, Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando, will vote.

If more than one government MP abstains, the government will still lose the vote.

The biggest difference to the Mifsud Bonnici motion is that if Malta's permanent representative had to resign, he will not attract the same level of sympathy, since Cachia Caruana has a more invisible nature than other Cabinet members. 

Cachia Caruana may not be as popular as Mifsud Bonnici with the PN grassroots but if the government loses a vote again, Gonzi would once again be forced to ask for a vote of confidence.

This would be the second vote of confidence in the space of a few weeks, and would strengthen the opposition's argument that Gonzi can no longer govern the country.

While Gonzi can pretty much rest assured that no MP has the will or the desire to bring government down, another vote of confidence will undermine his authority and his ability to govern the country without being distracted by internal strife.

This could force Gonzi's hand, and he will have to seriously consider whether to go to elections immediately or not. One option would be to go ahead with the summer recess and call a snap election in October.

If the Cachia Caruana motion is defeated, Gonzi can safely plan to hold on till next year and call a spring election.

Gonzi gains room for manoeuvre

The prime minister might have emerged wounded from the Mifsud Bonnici resignation, but after winning Monday's confidence vote by a clear margin, he has confirmed his stamina and fighting power.

Once again, he has shown an uncanny ability to turn around an unfavourable situation and launch a frontal attack on the opposition, reinforcing the perception of Gonzi as a master of political survival.

Although he has not restored stability and cannot claim that it's back to business as usual, the situation is clearer than it was in January, when Debono abstained. This vote has given him some breathing space to plan out the reminder of the legislature and plot a comeback.

As polls show that Labour enjoys a comfortable lead, Gonzi's obstinate resolve to hammer away his government's achievements in the economic and employment sectors might not excite the electorate, but it strengthens the impression that while the rest of Europe is in turmoil, Malta has weathered the storm well under his helm.

Friday's news that Malta has officially entered recession after registering negative economic growth for two consecutive quarters might come as a blow to Gonzi's 'steady hands' mantra, but he has consistently shown an ability to recover from difficult situations.

As MaltaToday polls have consistently shown over the past few months, Labour enjoys a comfortable lead over the PN, and Muscat also has a considerable lead over Gonzi in the trust barometer.

The current 10-point gap looks insurmountable for Gonzi, but the PN has been in this position before, when it also came from behind in winning the 2008 election. The biggest question is: what does Gonzi have to show for the past four years?

Apart from Gonzi's obvious 'advert' on his record in job creation and economic performance,  the Nationalist Party will heavily depend on the completion of capital projects such as the City Gate project, which includes the new Parliament and open-air theatre, the Upper Barrakka lift and other major investments such as the Delimara power station extension and the Malta-Sicily interconnector.

On the downside, such projects might not be enough to sway voters and the projects themselves have also fuelled a number of controversies, with Labour lambasting government's decision to invest €80 million in the City Gate project instead of prioritising other matters. It would be very ironic if Labour leader Joseph Muscat was to inaugurate the new Parliament in 2013.

The PN is clearly attempting to galvanise its core vote by going on the offensive by attacking the Labour's Party past. While this will lay the foundation for the party's electoral campaign it will take much more to convince first-time voters and floaters to vote PN.

The PN will surely attack Joseph Muscat and Labour's volte-face on EU membership and attack Muscat's judgment by surfacing anti-EU statements penned by Muscat before and after the 2003 referendum.

While this will have an effect on voters old enough to remember the EU referendum, it might not convince first-time voters.

Labour could easily counter this negative campaign by reminding the electorate of Gonzi's detachment when voting against the divorce bill in Parliament. On its part, Labour has already entered an advanced stage of its campaign. As part of the long campaign, the PL is targeting different sectors of the electorate in a structured way.

In the past couple of months, Labour has targeted the young electorate with its 'youth guarantee' proposal, which was followed by the 'fair society' proposal which includes measures for disabled persons. This, coupled with Labour's criticism on Gonzi's economic skills, indicates Muscat's willingness to take on Gonzi on the prime minister's home ground.

Since January, Labour has been running a parallel negative campaign, with a number of billboards deriding Gonzi and his failings. While this shows that Labour has made a quality leap in its usually clumsy campaigning, it could also mean that the party runs the risk of peaking too early.

Following this week's events, the fate of Gonzi's government is again within the prime minister's grasp, but the situation could easily change if the prime minister does not implement the reforms Debono "has been speaking about".