[ANALYSIS] Gonzi gets tough: but how tough can he get?

Events following last week's no confidence vote in Richard Cachia Caruana seem to suggest that both the Prime Minister and the Nationalist Party are now on the warpath with three rebel MPs: who, in different ways, voted with Labour to oust key members of the present administration.

Not only has the PN formally condemned the three MPs, but even more significantly the Prime Minister has not excluded their expulsion from the party - insisting that this is up for party structures to decide. 

Gonzi has also strongly denied telling Debono that he wanted him to contest with the PN in the next election in a private meeting he had with him.

Not only did the Prime Minister deny making any such statement but he also he threw his full weight behind the party's condemnation of the three MPs.

In his reply to questions by the Times, the Prime Minister made reference to the PN executive committee's decision to condemn "those who were responsible for the resignation of Home Affairs Minister Carmelo Mifsud Bonnici and Permanent Representative Richard Cachia Caruana."

Moreover, the PM is hinting at the collusion between the three MPs and Labour. "There is absolutely nothing that can justify an MP of a party voting for the other party without there being consequences," he added, in what could be a clear signal that the three MPs would not be allowed to contest the next general election with the PN.

Loose ends and loose cannons

While Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando has already excluded contesting an election months ago, effectively becoming a loose cannon with no obligations towards the Nationalist Party's electorate, any decision to bar Debono and Mugliett from contesting would create two other loose canons. Yet such a decision is normally taken by the party's executive a few weeks before the election, which means that Debono will not know his fate by the end of summer.

While earlier events seemed to point at the PM delegating the task of disciplining the rebels to the party's administration not to undermine his fragile one-seat majority, smaking an artificial distinction between State and party, the latest statement suggests that Gonzi is finally taking the bull by the horns, both as a Prime Minister and a party leader.

But the latest sequence of events raises even more questions on the PM's handling of the current crisis.

Why did Gonzi feel the need to personally meet Debono, a step which in itself sent a mixed message to the rebel MP who was later condemned by the party? What's the use of the leader of the party meeting someone who was about to be condemned by the same party executive?

Such meetings are bound to result in different interpretations of what was actually said, with Debono insisting that the PM made his candidature conditional on him attacking Labour on a daily basis.

This suggests the Prime Minister's unease on the rebel MP's complete silence on the Opposition's antics and policies, which contrasts with their constant bashing of government. Moreover, the meeting suggests that PM was still toying with reconciliation before the undecipherable Pullicino Orlando stole Debono's thunder by voting with Labour on the motion for Cachia Caruana's resignation.

Another question is whether the condemnation will lead to expulsion from the party... or at least exclusion from the party's list of candidates.

The PM has already stated that the approval of candidates is up to the party's executive. It will be very unlikely for the party to approve any candidate "condemned" by the party. 

Expulsion from the party would be an unprecedented step, which would inevitably mean that the PN will no longer command a majority in parliament and the emergence of a minority government, which would depend on the vote of three MPs expelled from the party.

The PN will probably use the breathing space of the summer recess to resolve the crisis without the risk of events reverberating on Gonzi's one-seat majority.

This raises yet another question: is Gonzi still seeking to plug the holes of his one-seat majority, appearing weak and humiliated in the process - while still buying precious time to prolong the work of his legislature - or does he intend to call everyone's bluff, appearing strong in the process but ultimately losing the one-seat majority?

No more Mr Nice Guy

Conventional wisdom dictates that a party lagging 12 points behind the opposition would try to hang on to power until the gap is closed.

It also makes imperative the approval of pending bills, like that on cohabitation and IVF - which could restore the party's credentials among disgruntled liberals. In normal circumstances, it could also make presenting a pre-electoral budget vital; but increased scrutiny by the EU Commission limits Gonzi's space of manoeuvre to do this.

But the lack of inroads made by the PN in the past months seems to suggest that instead of getting bogged down in a state of perennial crisis, Gonzi might prefer an early election. 

For the latest escalation with Debono, Mugliett and Pullicino Orlando begs the question on whether a post-summer election is now inevitable.

By embarking on a face-off with the rebel MPs, Gonzi could deal a fatal blow to his one-seat majority, leading to one of the three possibly taking the decisive step of pulling the plug on an agonising government.

But ultimately, that will still depend on any of the three MPs actually voting against government in a money bill or confidence vote. Therefore, a more decisive and tougher approach by Gonzi with regards to the three MPs may not necessarily mean an early election. 

For the PM could still call their bluff by returning to parliament after the summer and proceed to present a pre-electoral budget fully knowing that the only way for the rebels to actually bring down the government is through a motion of no confidence, brought up by the rebel MPs themselves or the opposition... or alternatively, by voting against a money bill.

Still, one major consequences of a "face-off" with the rebels before the end of summer will be that instability will remain the topic of conversation in the coming months, as the PN gets bogged down in the escalation with backbenchers who bask in the limelight. 

This will make it harder for government and the party to set the agenda, by emphasising the economic aspect and putting the spotlight on Labour's controversial statements, such as the one in which Labour leader Joseph Muscat proposed that decisions like that on land reclamation should be taken by government and the private sector and not by the Malta Environment and Planning Authority.

While the latest events may rally the party's core, recent polls suggest the PL has retained its advantage despite widespread sympathy with former Minister Carmelo Mifsud Bonnici. Yet the PN could still put its hopes in the dynamics set by an intensive electoral campaign where the party may still have some cards to play, which could take the country by storm in September.   

Clearly, this is the advice given by Cachia Caruana, who reiterated his preference for an early election in last Sunday's interview. But this raises yet another question: is his judgement clouded by recent events and the escalation in the war of words Pullicino Orlando?