If Pullicino Orlando resigns from the PN: what next?

If Pullicino Orlando resigns from the PN it will hasten calls for a swift solution to the impending parliamentary quandary.

Having a one-seat majority, the resignation of Pullicino Orlando would mean that the government no longer enjoys a majority.

Parliament is in summer recess until 1 October and the government's position would have to be determined by a vote of confidence.

In January, when Nationalist MP Franco Debono declared that he would not be supporting the government in Parliament, the leader of the Opposition, Joseph Muscat asked the Speaker of the House to re-convene Parliament urgently.

In a letter sent to Speaker Michael Frendo, Muscat asked the Speaker to urgently recall Parliament from its Christmas recess to determine whether the government enjoyed a parliamentary majority to remove the uncertainty that was hindering the country's progress.

The Speaker had turned down the request and justified the decision by saying that Parliament was due to reconvene from the Christmas recess a week later and felt that there was no need to put the date forward.

However this time around there are two major differences to the situation in January.

In January the likelihood of government losing its majority was only a threat, which came from Franco Debono's declarations that he would withdraw his support. However if Pullicino Orlando resigns from the party, it would be much more than a plain threat. It would officially mean that the government has 34 MPs, the same number of MPs the Opposition has.

Secondly, in contrast to January, the Parliament will not be reconvening within one week's time but within 10 weeks.

According to Parliament's Permanent Orders, the Speaker can of his own accord or if requested reconvene Parliament earlier than planned but only if he feels the matter is urgent.

Permanent Order 8 states that: "Unless the House otherwise orders, the House shall meet at 5 o'clock in the afternoon on Monday and Thursday in each week (except upon public holidays) and on such other days and at such other hour as the House may from time to time determine, or as the Speaker may upon grounds of urgency appoint."

The only instance in recent history in which Parliament was urgently reconvened was in January 1991 when both sides of the House asked then Speaker Lawrence Gonzi to recall Parliament in light of the Gulf War.

In the remote eventuality that Pullicino Orlando decides to exit politics and resigns from Parliament alltogether, things would be more straightforward. His seat would be filled in either by a by-election or a co-option. This would also free Gonzi from the major headache of losing his Parliamentary majority.

However, he will still need to deal with Franco Debono and to a certain extent Jesmond Mugliett who like Pullicino Orlando have been banned from contesting elections on the PN ticket.