Gonzi’s first shot of a long campaign

Lawrence Gonzi's declaration on Sunday that not voting in the next election would be equivalent to voting for Labour, reflects polls showing that the PN loses more of its votes to abstention than directly to Labour.

The latest survey conducted by MaltaToday in July shows that while 29% of respondents who claim they will not vote, had voted PN in 2008, only 11% had voted for Labour; and while 25% of undecided voters had voted for the PN in 2008 only 10% had voted for Labour.

This suggests that the PN has more room to grow among these two categories than Labour, suggesting that the PN can at least close the gap. This in turn could galvanise enthusiasm among voters who at present think that a Labour victory is inevitable. 

Gonzi's declaration signals that the PN has embarked on the preliminary stage of its long electoral campaign, that of recovering those 2008 Nationalist voters who do not intend shifting to Labour but are inclined not to vote or are still undecided on what to do.

But even if all these voters are recovered, the PN will still be trailing behind Labour. In fact, judging by MaltaToday's poll, the PN will cut Labour's lead from a staggering 12 points to a more realistic 8 points - if both parties were to recover all their voters in 2008 who now intend not to vote are still undecided.

The poll already suggests that the PN's strategy of recovering non-voters is already paying off with the percentage of non-voters who voted PN in 2008 declining from 51% to 29%.

But the PN would still be trailing behind Labour even if it were to recover these presently non-committed voters, because the PN is still losing 11% of its 2008 voters to Labour and Labour is only losing 2% of its voters to the PN.

After recovering the bulk of its former voters, the PN can only compensate for such a massive swing by winning over the bulk of new voters. 

This explains why the party has placed so much emphasis on social networks and its presence on the Internet in the past months.

This emphasis also reflects what surveys, including those of MaltaToday, show: most new voters are still undecided on whom to vote for. But the party's conservative stand on divorce and other ethical issues may backfire on these attempts. In fact the party's initiatives to lure this vote, like the "PM for a day" competition, have largely lacked ideological substance and have banked only on image.

But even winning over a majority of new voters would probably be not enough to win the election. Ultimately the PN has to reduce its losses to Labour by denting Joseph Muscat's trust rating.

The new strategy

One fundamental difference between 2008 and now is that while in the previous election Gonzi was the most trusted leader, despite his party trailing by 6 to 7 points in the polls, Gonzi himself is now less trusted than Labour leader Joseph Muscat.

All this suggests that the PN needs a long electoral campaign to accomplish its three goals: re-compacting its 2008 vote base by winning back non-voters and those who are still undecided, winning a majority of new voters, and substantially reduce the swing to Labour.

Much depends on how seriously former Nationalists who are saying that they would vote Labour can be taken. The fact that the number of 2008 PN voters saying they would vote Labour has remained constant for the past three years, indicates that many of these have already made up their mind, and it will not be easy to dissuade them.

One major obstacle to this three-pronged strategy is that it depends on the fear factor, which was easy to conjure when Labour was still led by Alfred Sant after 1998. Moreover in 1996, when Sant was young and fresh, the PN's "ma tistax tafdah" (you can't trust him) campaign backfired.

The fact that Muscat does not have a baggage of government and is largely untried or untested makes the PN's campaign to diminish his appeal more difficult.

Moreover, in the absence of enthusiasm for the present administration, non-committed voters can only come in line if they feel sufficient reasons to fear a return to Labour. Much depends also on Labour's propensity to commit own-goals and on lingering doubts among middle-of-the-road voters on what Labour's actual policies are and whether they are simply meant to win votes.

Losing out to Labour

Muscat's Sunday declaration that Labour will have to make hard choices, without saying what these choices are, suggests that he is simply preparing for a post-electoral alibi for the bitter pills any future government will have to administer.

One major problem for the PN is that past MaltaToday surveys indicate that the kind of Nationalist voter shifting to Labour is more likely to have a secondary than a post-secondary education, and is therefore less likely to be discerning on policy details. 

Apart from Labour, the PN also suffers from a smaller shift to AD (1% of its 2008 votes), a tendency that is more pronounced among those with a tertiary education. This shift could become more significant if the party manages to close the gap.  But it would be more difficult for the PN to turn the next election in to a do or die apocalyptical one; and while its efforts may pay off in scaring some of those considering a vote for Labour, this does not necessarily mean that these will vote for the PN.  Not voting or voting for the Greens might still be an option for some of these voters.

What is certain is that the Nationalist Party needs time to reconnect with its own voting base, fully knowing that it would be hard to win any votes from the other side and the best hope lies in minimising losses, winning as much possible its 2008 vote base and winning over a large segment on new voters. 

On the other hand, for Labour, which unlike the PN manages to keep most of its 2008 voters, retaining Nationalist voters who now intend voting for it to the very last day would probably be enough to ensure victory. 

One advantage for Labour is that its core vote has so far accepted the leadership's Nationalist-lite programme, targeted at former PN voters.

What is sure is that while a short campaign is beneficial for the Labour Party whose task is to retain new and potentially restless voters who could be turned off easily as the campaign gets nastier, a long campaign would be beneficial for a party struggling to recover past voters, and trying to sow doubt in those who are considering new pastures.

All this indicates that if he is not tripped up by his own backbenchers, Gonzi would opt for an election next year while starting the long campaign in September.