Gozo battle to chip away at traditional Debono, Refalo voter-bases

The thirteenth electoral district of Gozo is bound to see a major power struggle as both the Nationalist and Labour parties prepare to employ a major vote consolidation strategy by fielding big names and cutting some politically dead wood.

PN insiders have told MaltaToday that although MEP Simon Busuttil's name has not yet been confirmed for Gozo, there is no doubt that the appeal of the likeable Europarliamentarian will be essential to shore up disgruntled Nationalist voters who are undecided whether to vote or not, even though the chances that they switch party loyalty and vote for Labour remain low.

The success of this strategy is not guaranteed. At the outset, with the popularity of incumbents like justice minister Chris Said, formerly the mayor of Nadur and the other Nationalist heavyweight to rival long-time Gozo minister Giovanna Debono, it would seem that Busuttil's name would undercut Debono.

But as canvassers who spoke to MaltaToday pointed out, Debono's voter base is loyal and hardly likely to switch allegiance to Busuttil.

"If Busuttil is to make any inroads, it will be more likely that he will be after Chris Said's voters - Said appeals to younger voters, even the more liberal and middle-class vote while Debono has an established, conservative vote.

"We can expect both Said and Debono to raise the matter of Busuttil's candidature on Gozo privately with the prime minister, although Said could be guaranteed a steady flow of second-preference votes from Busuttil."

While Chris Said, whose promotion as justice minister in January 2012 underpins his reputation as one of the more hardworking ministers of the Nationalist administration, will not want to see his voter base chipped away by Busuttil, Giovanna Debono's days as a minister appear to be counted.

"Even if the Nationalists had to be re-elected, to consider Debono to be reappointed as minister for Gozo would have to take into account the problems the sister island has experienced under her watch, specifically the lack of jobs and investment. If anything she would be kicked upstairs to the Presidency," the same canvasser told MaltaToday.

Another problem Busuttil faces in the Gozo district is the lack of an electoral base. With traditionally fierce loyalties, it is unlikely that established canvassers on the island will switch allegiance to the newcomer.

"Gozo is a constituency where favours equals votes. Giovanna is in Gozo every day of the week - Chris Said's super-ministry has kept him away from the island most of the week. Busuttil may have invited many people on familiarisation visits to Brussels but this does not mean he will make the first count on Gozo."

Debono remains the uncontested queen of Gozo: she took the district in 2008 with 5,633 votes, while Said was elected on the eleventh count. The other MP was Frederick Azzopardi who took Said's surplus votes, while PN executive committee president MarthesePortelli fell out of the race at the tenth count.

While Busuttil could be the perfect candidate for disgruntled Nationalists who still want to vote PN but have lost their faith in their ministers, on the other side of the political divide Labour is making its own move at cutting dead wood.

As Labour ponders on whether to field its leader Joseph Muscat in this crucial district, ostensibly to win a constituency that is a natural Nationalist stronghold, the move is more likely to damage the current hold that incumbent MP Anton Refalo has.

As one Labour insider told MaltaToday: "Refalo is strong in Gozo. He is a popular lawyer and he can make things move. But he can be a gruff personality that does not fit within the style and image being portrayed by Muscat. So if Refalo cannot become the next Gozo minister under Labour, Muscat will have to step in and chip away at his voter base."

In 2008, Refalo won the Gozo district with 4,599 first count votes - over and above the 3,958 quota - while Caruana took 3,169 votes and was elected on the eighth count, taking 322 second-preference votes from Refalo - or half of his surplus votes.

As expected, Labour's party machine will be geared up to bolster the image of preferable incumbents like JustyneCaruana, and of newcomer Franco Mercieca, an ophthalmologist by profession.

PL insiders believe that with Muscat heading the Gozo candidate list, they may win back Gozo back to Labour, something last achieved in 1955.

Busuttil's choice of the 11th district, which comprises Lija, Attard and Balzan has already soured many fellow PN candidates who now view their chances of getting elected on the first count as remote. But his 'asset value' to the party - which is in dire need of an iconic candidate - far outweighs worries of internal rivalry between PN candidates on the constituency level.

Others who claim Gozitans are easily swayed into changing party allegiance say Muscat is considering his option seriously to take full advantage of the 'Gozitan electoral culture'. Polls carried by MaltaToday last month and published in GozoToday show the PN losing 11% of its 2008 voters directly to Labour. On the other hand, only 1% of Labour voters intended voting for the PN.  This represents a massive 10-point swing in favour of Labour, confirming the national 9-point swing.