After Borg, the race to the PN deputy leadership

Apart from attempting to restore Malta's damaged reputation, the Prime Minister's choice of Tonio Borg as EU Commissioner will also change the dynamics of the PN's electoral campaign.

Borg's appointment to the EC will see him vacate his parliamentary seat and also his role as deputy party leader of the PN. As a result, the Nationalist Party will undergo the process of electing a new deputy leader, just weeks before the general election. The question is, will there be a contest or will it be an anointment?

The vacancy could pave the way for leadership hopefuls such as MEP Simon Busuttil, ministers Mario de Marco and Chris Said, and outsider Beppe Fenech Adami to step into the role and flank the Prime Minister in the forthcoming election campaign. However with the PN lagging behind the Labour Party by 12 points in the polls, contenders might have second thoughts about heading the party to a possible hammering and being identified with an electoral slaughter.

Gonzi was appointed deputy leader in 1999 and consequently won the leadership contest five years later. The new deputy leader will not automatically succeed Gonzi, yet whoever will be appointed will only be one step away from the golden chalice.

The new deputy leader will have an edge, thanks to his advantageous position, when it comes to laying a claim for the party leadership. On the other hand, any attempt by the party to anoint a new leader does not necessarily bide well for the new deputy leader.

In recent political history, Malta had two anointed leaders: Karmenu Mifsud Bonnici and Lawrence Gonzi himself, and both had a troubled time at the helm of the party and the country. 

The rules of the game

The PN deputy leadership election is regulated by the same rules that apply to the election of the party leader. As in the case of the leadership election, the PN deputy leader is chosen by the party's 900-strong general council, which in the main is composed of Gonzi loyalists.

The winning candidate needs a two-thirds majority of all votes cast by the councillors. This also applies if there is only one contestant in the race.

Anyone can contest the deputy leadership election as long as the nomination is signed by 10 regular paid members, of which at least three have to be either members of the party's executive or parliamentary group. The statute does not explain whether a candidate has to be a party member or not, so in theory anyone can contest as long as the nomination is signed by ten party members and accompanied by a signed declaration from the candidate.

Nominations must be submitted within two months from the call. In the last leadership contest held in February 2012, the election was held less then a month after Gonzi called for a leadership contest.

If more than one person contests the deputy leadership race and nobody obtains the two-thirds majority of votes cast, multiple elections are held in order to narrow the field down to two candidates, by eliminating the candidate with the lowest number of votes each time.  

Deputy Prime Minister

Normally political party deputy leaders in Malta occupy the post of deputy Prime Minister if the party is in government. However, at least in the case of the Nationalist Party, the party statute does not define the role of the deputy leader and nowhere does it say that the deputy leader must also occupy the post of deputy prime minister when the party is in government.

This could possibly lead to the party having two different persons occupying the deputy leader and deputy Prime Minister posts, at least for the few weeks leading to the election date.

The PN can take this opportunity to elevate one of the current ministers to the post of deputy prime minister and create a triumvirate in the run-up to the election, made up of Gonzi, a new deputy prime minister and a new PN deputy leader.  

However, this also hinges on the timing of Tonio Borg's appointment as Commissioner. Possibly by the time Borg is confirmed as Commissioner, elections would have been called and the role of deputy Prime Minister will be virtually ineffectual. Yet, the deputy prime minister could have an important part to play in an electoral campaign.

Past deputy leadership contests

In March 2004, Tonio Borg was appointed deputy leader after beating Nationalist MP Francis Zammit Dimech. Borg had obtained 61% of votes in the first round and was then confirmed as deputy leader in the second round ballot.

In 1999, Lawrence Gonzi was elected deputy leader after the incumbent, Guido de Marco was appointed President of the Republic. Gonzi had won the contest after beating off the firm competition offered by Josef Bonnici, Louis Galea, and Francis Zammit Dimech. After gaining almost half the votes in the first round, Gonzi went on to garner 92% of the votes in the second round after the other three contenders withdrew from the race.

By-election or co-option?

If Borg is confirmed Commissioner before Parliament is dissolved, his parliamentary seat must be filled in either by holding a casual election or the Nationalist Party could choose to co-opt somebody into parliament directly.

Borg was elected from both the eighth and eleventh districts but chose to drop the eleventh district. A casual election will be held 10 days after he vacates his seat, and the winner determined by the redistribution of the votes credited to Tonio Borg.

Former Nationalist MP Michael Asciak is in pole position to take Borg's seat as he obtained the fourth largest number of votes on the first count (564) followed by Martin Fenech (399), Ian Castaldi Paris (317), Josianne Cardona Gatt (160) and Mario Schembri (128).

Asciak had inherited the largest number of votes from Tonio Borg's first preferences and was the last candidate to be dropped before Beppe Fenech Adami took the last seat.

In casual elections, candidates must achieve 50% of the quota established in the election. The quota of the eighth district in 2008 was 3,750, meaning that in order to get elected a candidate must garner 1876 votes in a by-election.

In the eventuality that nobody reaches the quota or nobody submits a nomination, then the PN will co-opt somebody to fill in Tonio Borg's seat.

If the PN wants to co-opt somebody like Simon Busuttil to Parliament it can instruct the unelected eighth district candidates not to submit their application for the by-election and pave the way for the popular MEP to take a seat in Parliament. 

New blood

Tonio Borg's resignation is a golden opportunity for the PN to reinvent itself and rejuvenate an ailing party leadership and withering campaign.

Trailing Labour by 12 points a few weeks before the election presents a daunting task to anyone. However, a fresh and young face in the party leadership could not only give new impetus to the party but it will also neutralise the advantage Labour leader Joseph Muscat has in terms of age and freshness.

All indications point at a presidential campaign with Labour centering their campaign on their leader, who will be contesting his first ever general election. The PN will find it difficult to counteract this by making Gonzi the centrepiece of its campaign, following the repercussions of the 2008 GonziPN concept. But, a new deputy leader or the remote possibility of having a triumvirate could prove successful, at least in shrinking the gap if not winning the election.