[ANALYSIS] Good cop, bad cop

Nationalist MEP Simon Busuttil makes conciliatory moves towards Franco Debono during a radio phone-in programme; the Nationalist Party instantly shoots down any reconciliation talk, stating that its ban on Debono's candidature is "not for turning".

In the renewed political chatter on the upcoming deputy leadership elections and Nationalist MP Franco Debono's intentions to bring down the government on Budget day, a flurry of statements and accusations have peppered what appeared to be first steps to a rapprochement between Debono and the PN.

Simon Busuttil knows that he has little choice of accepting the poisoned chalice of the deputy leadership. Turning down the 'offer' now would mean ditching the party in its hour of need, something councilors will remember if Busuttil bides his time. And that's because Busuttil is presently the only game-changer, the automatic choice of a vast majority of PN voters, according to surveys.  

But Busuttil also knows that if the party is humiliated in the next election he will take part of the blame and his future chances to become leader will be dealt a severe blow. So he knows his future depends on narrowing Labour's lead significantly in the next weeks. For while victory might still be improbable, narrowing the gap substantially would make Busuttil the automatic choice to lead a strong opposition.

To achieve this aim, Busuttil needs to recover the support of voters who have abandoned the PN. According to the latest surveys,  the PN is losing 10% of its 2008 voters to the PL and 2% to AD.

He must ditch the perception that he is the anointed one and that he forms part of the same party establishment, which is being so heavily penalised in the polls. The party machine also knows this. The choice is between an electoral wipe-out and a complete reshuffle of the cards, which can only happen if Busuttil presents himself as an agent of discontinuity.

Ironically, by contradicting Busuttil, the party is helping him in his bid to dispel the image that he is a 'yes man'.

So the latest cosmetic 'skirmish' between the PN and Simon Busuttil may well be based on an understanding based on the good cop/bad cop strategy. But where does this strategy leave the present leader Lawrence Gonzi?

While Busuttil's survival instincts would lead him to distance himself further from the party's establishment, this strategy risks putting Gonzi in the uncomfortable position of the bad cop in the leadership tandem. The strategy only makes sense if Gonzi is on the way out and Busuttil on the way in.

What is curious is the reason why Busuttil's first move was targeted at the party's enfant terrible - Franco Debono - the man who just a few weeks ago compared Gonzi to Hitler in one of his blasé jibes, and whose antics have led to the decapitation of a minister.

Perhaps Busuttil is banking on the symbolism of such a move; reconciliation with Debono could also be a message to a segment of disgruntled PN voters. But it may well be a question of timing.  For if the government falls in the budget, Busuttil would have no time to cement his leadership in the party by narrowing and possibly reversing Labour's lead.

On the other hand, the promise of reconciliation may well keep Debono from bringing the government down.

But ultimately, in order to give a sense of authenticity to his promise of discontinuity, Busuttil must start addressing programmatic issues. For beyond its credentials of weathering the eurozone crisis, the PN remains disoriented, torn between die-hard conservatives and a more liberal outlook. It would take more than another poster boy politician to redress this deficit.

And yet, it is hard to understand where this game is even going: Debono is keen on giving the impression that he is actively toying with a candidature for the PN's deputy leadership.

Debono, who has filed a no-confidence motion against transport minister Austin Gatt, said he will ask PN secretary-general Paul Borg Olivier to grant him access to the party's accounts, before deciding whether to contest the deputy leader election to be held between 29 November and 2 December.

"I have been approached by a number of councillors who encouraged me to contest. However before deciding, I want to see the party's accounts and verify in what state Paul Borg Olivier has brought the party to," Debono told MaltaToday this week.

Debono's claim will instantly strike party councillors and observers as an odd aspiration: he has only declared that he would never support Lawrence Gonzi or his government, while being a heavy critic of his leadership.

Debono however told MaltaToday that he wants to know "the reality of the party's financial state and what the persons who are known to donate large amounts of money to the PN got in return".

He also warned Malta would "pass through a corruption scandal in the style of Italy's clean hands (mani pulite) investigations", citing his appeal to the Commissioner of Police to look into his allegations in parliament on the St Philip's Hospital contract.

Debono is now standing by declarations that he will not vote in favour of the budget, expected to be presented by the end of November.

"Budget 'bye bye'," Debono said. "Austin Gatt has to go. I stand by what I said on the budget. If Gatt remains minister I will not vote for it, even if the budget is manna from heaven," he said.

The bellicose MP also said government was gambling ahead of the budget in which it was still not guaranteed a majority.

"Government can verify its majority by either tabling a vote of confidence, or putting a law to vote.

"Going ahead with the budget knowing it won't be approved is irresponsible. These are ugly days for democracy in Malta."

Debono has also given short shrift to the PN's less than accommodating attitude towards the 'conciliatory tone' that appeared to be brewing from his part. "They want war? They will have it," he wrote of the PN's statement that its decision to ban Debono from the party would stand.

"They don't want reconciliation? Then they should forget the budget. It's either Austin Gatt or the budget."