Lawrence Gonzi’s chess moves in nominating Borg commissioner

A President from the other side

Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi's first strategic chess move was that of appointing George Abela as President. Unlike Eddie Fenech Adami, who appointed three of his senior ministers presidents - including two who had contested him in the 1977 leadership contest, namely Guido De Marco and Censu Tabone - Gonzi made history by appointing George Abela, a former Labour Party deputy leader and leadership contender, as President. In so doing, he had forsaken Louis Galea, a senior minister and a leadership contender in the 2004 contest. Galea was later appointed to the Court of Auditors.

While the move was popular and inclusive, it was also interpreted as a political move to sow division in Labour ranks in view of Abela's conflicts with former PL leader Alfred Sant and deputy leader George Vella.

It also banked on co-opting the element which supported George Abela in the leadership contest to the extent that neither of the two were present in the vote when Abela was unanimously approved. The appointment also precluded Abela from standing as an MEP candidate in the 2009 election on Labour's ticket. Yet ultimately, the decision did not have any long-term impact on the political landscape except in creating disappointment within Nationalist ranks. Neither did it preclude close relatives of George Abela - like his son Robert Abela and his wife Lydia Abela - from militating in Muscat's Labour Party. Moreover, although Abela did not contest the 2009 MEP election, the PN was still trounced.

George Abela's appointment proved to be a popular move with voters but it was one which did not lead to any significant political advantage for the PM.

A leaner cabinet

Following the 2008 election, Lawrence Gonzo took the drastic decision of appointing a lean government composed of eight Ministers instead of the 13 Ministers he had between 2004 and 2008. But the demotion of former Ministers like Jesmond Mugliett - who were informed of not being chosen by SMS - contributed to backbench unrest in later years. So did his decision not to appoint highly successful candidates, some of which were elected from two districts.

Discontentment on the backbench eventually led Gonzi to backtrack by creating a new but vague post of parliamentary assistant. In January 2012, Gonzi enlarged the cabinet by appointing three new ministers, Mario de Marco, Chris Said and Jason Azzopardi - a decision which helped in giving a greater dynamism to government.

Dalli's kick upstairs

John Dalli's appointment as Malta's nominee as European Commissioner in 2010 brought an end to Dalli's short spell as Health and Social Policy Minister. The appointment coincided with growing unrest in the PN backbench and Dalli's declaration that he acted as "father confessor" to those who felt excluded. The appointment was widely interpreted as a move intended to prevent Dalli from becoming a reference point for the rebellious backbenchers.

But the appointment did not serve to clear the air between the two rivals in the 2004 leadership contest which had seen Dalli pitted against Gonzi, a relationship further soured by a forced resignation from the cabinet only five months after the contest and Dalli's contention that his resignation was linked to a fabricated report linking him to kickbacks on hospital equipment. Unlike Guido de Marco in 1977, who was eventually persuaded to become Fenech Adami's deputy leader in a move which healed the rift in the party, Dalli remained an open sore which was bound to fester with time.

Still, it is still debatable whether there was the same level of trust and political chemistry between Dalli and Gonzi to permit a repeat of the historic Fenech Adami-de Marco tandem in 2004.

Still, the party's problems were compounded by the fact that the new deputy leader Tonio Borg represented the same faction, which had supported Lawrence Gonzi thus failing in healing wounds after the divisive contest.

Still this did not preclude Gonzi from awarding Dalli a strategic super ministry including both health and social policy after the 2008 election.

But ultimately instead of keeping Dalli in his team and thus keeping a potential rival on board, Gonzi ultimately chose to offer Dalli an offer he could not refuse.

Ironically, it was Dalli's second forced resignation this time from the EU commission, which paved the way for Gonzi's final strategic move; vacating the deputy leadership occupied by Tonio Borg.

Vacating the 'Number 2' spot

The decision to nominate Tonio Borg as EU Commissioner has given Gonzi the golden opportunity to pave the way for a new leadership tandem and present an element of discontinuity and change before the general election.

But in so doing, Gonzi has taken a gamble... for Tonio Borg now faces a grilling in which his conservative views on issues such as gay rights and abortion will be openly questioned by a sceptical parliament. If Borg is not approved, Gonzi could well have exposed the country to a humiliation in order to solve his internal political problems. On the other hand, if Tonio Borg manages to quell these doubts by performing well in the grilling, Gonzi would have succeeded in a political masterstroke.

Ironically, it was John Dalli's controversial exit from his post as European Commissioner has set in motion a sequence of events that could ultimately address the PN's leadership quandary.

Ominously, on Independence Day Gonzi started speaking of offering the people to vote for change... by re-voting the PN in office.

The fact that the Prime Minister was informed of the OLAF investigation on John Dalli on 5 July may suggest that he had enough time to dwell on the possible repercussions of this case, including who to appoint as new commissioner in the eventuality that Dalli had to resign.

Tonio Borg's vacancy offers the PN the opportunity of presenting a designate leader along the present leader, a leadership tandem which relies on a mix of Gonzi's experience in handling the international recession and a more dynamic deputy leader who makes up for Gonzi's conservatism and who had no part in those decisions which erodes trust in the PN leader.

One such candidate is Simon Busuttil, already chosen as the PN's envoy to arrange meetings with civil society, who was absent from both the divorce referendum and was not even an MP when the honoraria issue arose.

By presenting a leadership tandem, the PN would be also raising the profile of its deputy leader, something which could present the PL with a difficulty, considering that it has two deputy leaders - Anglu Farrugia and Toni Abela - who lack Busuttil's appeal to middle of the road voters.

Wanted: someone to contest Simon

The PM has already made it clear that he wants Busuttil to be contested. This is because he is not keen on having yet another one horse race reminiscent of his own re-election as party leader in February, which was met with widespread cynicism.

Therefore, Gonzi is banking on one of his political heavyweights to step in to give a greater legitimacy to Busuttil's election.

For a one horse race would simply confirm Busuttil in the role as Gonzi's anointed one, something which defeats the very purpose of the contest; that of presenting an element of discontinuity to enable voters to vote for change while still voting for the PN.

The risk for Gonzi is that nobody seems to have an interest in challenging Simon Busuttil now. For the chances of anyone beating Busuttil would be greater following an electoral defeat in which the latter would have to take part of the blame.

With strong candidates like Mario de Marco and Chris Said, who seem reluctant to burn their future chances after the election, the party could be banking on a symbolic establishment candidate who can afford being beaten by Busuttil simply because he is not perceived as a potential future leader of the party.

This could be the logic behind the presentation of Tonio Fenech's candidature - a party loyalist with leadership qualities presently occupying the Finance Ministry who would be enjoying the full limelight of the Budget in the days preceding the contest.

But it would be extremely unlikely that Fenech would contest if he were not convinced that he has a significant following, which would avert the risk of a humiliation.

Fenech's candidature could stand as a flagship for Ministers who feel uneasy about the rise of the upstart MEP who is free from any ministerial responsibilities while they constantly take the flak for doing their work. They could be hoping that the contest would cut Busuttil down to size.