[ANALYSIS] The deputy leadership contest Lawrence Gonzi wanted?

Simon's change narrative | A tactic which could backfire? | Choosing the winner? | Questions councillors will be asking

Seven cabinet members and 130 councillors have ganged up to endorse Tonio Fenech's candidature. Does this strong demonstration of support for the Finance Minister suggest that Fenech can upset Simon Busuttil's applecart, or does it simply strengthen the MEP's appeal as the 'change' candidate?

The massive show of support for Fenech's nomination, which in numerical terms is stronger than Busuttil's 26 proponents, suggests that the race for the PN's number 2 spot is wide open and that Fenech has dispelled the perception that he starts the race as the underdog taking on the anointed candidate whose victory can be considered a foregone conclusion.

It also sends a strong message that Fenech's candidature is not a symbolic one - presented only for the sake of the formality of ensuring that a contest would take place - but a viable candidature with realistic prospects of success. 

In fact Fenech has made it clear that he is not standing for the sake of it but to win. In an interview with MaltaToday he also made it clear that it was Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi who encouraged him to contest for the post.

The fact that seven cabinet members including five senior ministers are supporting Fenech suggests that Busuttil's rise to the top echelons from the position of a "Johnny-come-lately" outsider without actually taking any flak for governing the country has irked cabinet members.

It also suggests that Busuttil's overtures to dissident MPs like Franco Debono, Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando and Jesmond Mugliett could have backfired on Busuttil among the party stalwarts who feel that these backbenchers have crossed a line, which makes the 'reconciliation', augured by Busuttil impossible.

For while among the wider electorate Simon Busuttil is seen as a natural - the automatic choice for the post as confirmed by public opinion polls, Fenech could also be banking on the fact that the PN's 900 councillors could well close ranks around a candidate who is perceived to be closer to their values and who can draw a sharp line against internal dissent.

Fenech could also rely on the influence individual Ministers have on councillors. Some of these could well prefer Fenech to fill the deputy leadership gap until the general election thus depriving Busuttil of the chance of using his power of incumbency in a future contest after the election.

Simon's change narrative

Still Fenech's candidature does fit in perfectly with the strategy of fielding Busuttil as a game changer in the 2013 election run-up.

Gonzi has already made it more than clear that this time round he wants a contest.  Clearlyhe wants to avoid the widespread cynicism which met his own triumph in last February's one horse race which saw him re-elected leader but which failed in denting Labour's lead in the polls.

Simply put, Simon Busuttil would be harder to sell to the electorate if his election to the deputy leadership was a foregone conclusion.

Secondly the fact that Busuttil is being contested by one of the foremost cabinet members, who is also supported by five ministers, dispels the idea that the party's establishment is anointing Busuttil. In fact he now finds himself running against the cabinet's preferred candidate.

In this way Busuttil who was himself appointed directly by Gonzi as his envoy in meetings with civil society a day after the one horse race confirming him at the party's helm, can now project himself as the outsider who is battling a cabinet insider for the second most important post in his party.

For what better launching pad for Busuttil - the outsider - than winning against a strong and capable minister who also enjoys the full trust of the Prime Minister?

Moreover, by making overtures to the excluded dissidents like Debono, Busuttil has amplified his status as the 'anti establishment' candidate who holds the banner of reconciliation, a buzzword harking back to the Fenech Adami era.

Had Fenech not contested him, Busuttil would have simply won on the basis of his reputation as 'Gonzi's anointed'. 

His victory would have smacked of a calculated chess move, concocted during a brain storming session of the party's strategy team. But to avoid such a perception, it was not simply a matter of having a contest but a matter of having a credible contest. 

In the absence of strong popular candidatures like that of Mario De Marco and Chris Said, Fenech had to step in not as a symbolic candidate but as a credible contender backed by a significant part of the party's establishment.

Still he would surely have not contested if was not sure that he had a significant amount of internal support.

The whole strategy of electing Simon Busuttil as deputy leader and possible designate leader now hinges on a councillors voting for that candidate who is most suitable to enable their party to narrow and possibly reverse Labour's lead. 

Councillors would also be asking which of the two candidates would the Labour party prefer as our deputy leader?

The best outcome for party strategists, who consider the contest as a launching platform for Busuttil, would be a suffered victory for the young MEP, in what is projected as a 'real' contest between friends.

In this scenario Fenech would deny Busuttil of the two-thirds majority required to get elected in the first round but Fenech would withdraw his candidature to enable Simon Busuttil to win a plebiscite in the second round.

Moreover by beating a Minister supported by five other Ministers, Busuttil could be in a better position to play the "new slate" card in the next general election.

The problem for the party now is that the more credible the contest is, the more unpredictable the outcome becomes.

A tactic which could backfire?

By insisting on a contest Gonzi may well have set in motion a process, which can take a life of its own. 

As the Finance Minister Fenech can claim the government's major success in weathering the euro-zone crisis as his own. The Finance Minister can make a convincing argument that he deserves the post and councillors may well find that argument convincing. 

For weathering the international crisis government's main redeeming factor before the next general election and Fenech will be fully enjoying the limelight of presenting a much-anticipated budget, which could well, reshuffle the cards before the election.

Fenech now takes pride in the EU commission's decision to lift infringement procedures against Malta and has used this news as a launching pad for his decision to contest.

For while one may argue that a Finance Minister should be fully focused on the budget rather than standing for the election of deputy leader, the budget puts Fenech in the spotlight during the week before the contest.

He will also be facing Franco Debono's threat to vote against the budget, and banking on a closing of ranks within the party before the decisive vote in parliament.

Moreover Fenech banks on the support of the three new Ministers appointed by Gonzi in January, namely Mario de Marco, Chris Said and Jason Azzopardi, whose term in office has infused a dose of dynamism in the government. 

This also makes it difficult to pigeonhole Fenech as the representative of the old guard since he enjoys the support of the cabinet's young Turks.

On the other hand Busuttil so far has only attracted the support of one Minister namely Health Minister Joe Cassar. 

Moreover apart from Tonio Borg who is currently pre-occupied with his nomination for the post of EU commissioner, the only ministers not to have pronounced themselves are Austin Gatt and George Pullicino. 

It is doubtful whether Busuttil can reap any benefit from any unlikely support from these quarters, as it would seriously dent his credentials as the candidate representing change.  

Finally even Fenech's conservative stance on divorce, a serious liability for the party on a national level, could also endear him to inward looking councillors.  Ultimately the mood prevailing among councillors could be the determining factor in this contest.

For had the party opted to think out of the box by doing what other parties in Europe are doing by enfranchising all party members, Simon Busuttil would have easily prevailed as the party's best asset to win the next general election.  But party councillors could well believe that the party's interests are best served by a known quantity like Fenech who can take pride in real accomplishments as a Minister occupying the most difficult portfolio in the cabinet.

This transforms the contest as one between a Minister who is actually taking the decisions and an aspirant MEP who is distanced from the daily reality of government. 

Moreover one unforeseen risk of the contest taking a life of its own, is that irrespective of the intentions of the contenders, bad blood could run if damaging rumours are spread by the camps of the multiple actors involved in the contest.  For while some could be clamouring for a victory of their horse, some could me more interested in stopping one of the horses from winning. 

Choosing the winner?

But if councillors ignore Simon Busuttil's potential as a game changer, they may well end up emulating Labour councillors who back in 2008 elected Anglu Farrugia and Toni Abela as their deputy leaders. 

While Abela has been unfairly cast by the PN media as a representative of the old guard when he was the first to challenge the blights of violence and corruption by resigning from the party in 1989, Farrugia now stands out as the albatross around Muscat's neck simply because his style and delivery does not appeal to non Labourites. 

In the end of the day for very different reasons, the two deputy leaders elected by Labour councillors have simply provided ammunition to the PN's propaganda machine.

In fact one of the advantage of having the election for PN deputy leader so close to the election is that it would highlight the contrast between the PL's deputy leaders and the PN's new golden boy. 

While Fenech cannot be dismissed as a lightweight or an outright liability, he also carries a baggage, which could provide ammunition to the PL's propaganda machine if he is elected.  While Labour remains silent on the PN's internal matters, it would pounce on the credibility of the newly elected deputy leader at the very moment he is elected.

While some councillors might identify with Fenech's archaic views on the relationship between personal faith and politics, these could represent an obstacle for the party's efforts to mend bridges with the liberal vote.

In an article published before the referendum, Fenech insisted that "the divorce debate could not be divorced from faith" and God had "a say in the morals of... this country".

Fenech also hit out at people who attended the processions of Our Lady of Sorrows and were irked by anti-divorce statements made during some of the celebrations.

"I think the occasion was actually very befitting of such a message; I am sure Our Lady is very sorrowful that Malta is considering divorce," Fenech wrote.

One redeeming factor for Fenech is that unlike Gonzi, he did not vote against the divorce bill approved in the referendum, and ultimately chose to abstain.

"People voted for divorce, and it is parliament's duty to have the law the people want. I will not be there to obstruct it," he said.

Fenech's squeaky-clean image was also jeopardised by two episodes which put his political judgement on what is ethically appropriate or not, in doubt. 

Fenech hit the headlines in 2009 in the wake of revelations of his trip on a private jet owned by businessman George Fenech to watch an Arsenal match in the company of businessman Joe Gasan. 

Fenech again hit the headlines after hiring a construction firm owned by Jeffrey and Peter Montebello to renovate his house in Balzan.

Fenech suffered further collateral damage after his former private secretary admitted in court to receiving bribes from contractors Jeffrey and Peter Montebello to reduce or waive fees owed to government departments falling under the jurisdiction of the Finance Ministry. The contractors were later arraigned in connection with the bribery of this official. Fenech has categorically denied any knowledge of or connection with the case involving the contractors.

The questions councillors will be asking

It is inevitable that party councillors will consider Fenech's baggage when asking themselves the fundamental question; which of the two candidates stands a better chance of narrowing Labour's lead and which of the two candidates is most exposed to Labour's ammunition?  It is the answer to these questions that puts Busuttil at an advantage. 

For while a billboard depicting Gonzi with Busuttil may have an impact on undecided voters and boost the party's efforts to project itself as one able to change itself while remaining in government, Fenech appeals to the same constituency as Gonzi.

Moreover Gonzi already carries Fenech's positive economic legacy but lacks the appeal of someone who can reach out to middle of the road and younger voters.

But that does not exclude the possibility that another factor can come in to play, namely the perception that the party has already lost the election and that real change can only take place if the party goes back to the opposition benches.

Another calculation some councillors will make is that the leadership chances of other horses not participating in this race would be better served by Fenech's elevation to the number 2 spot for this would mean an end to Busuttil's leadership aspirations. 

If a large number of councillors already consider a defeat as a foregone conclusion, they may be tempted to preserve the party's purity instead of taking the risk of electing someone who could steer them towards a new course, possibly changing the party's DNA.

Moreover others could be banking on their horse winning a post electoral scenario and consider Fenech as a stop gap candidate who would stop Busuttil from entrenching himself in the leadership before the impending defeat. 

Ultimately Busuttil's candidature hinges on his ability to persuade councillors that he can really change the political landscape just a few months before the election.   

What is sure is that while Fenech can live for another day, even if defeated this time round reaping political capital for turning a foregone conclusion in to a 'real' contest, Busuttil could see his future leadership vanish if he fails in his bid for deputy leadership.

Moreover even if he wins, Busuttil would still have to prove himself in the Herculean task of substantially narrowing Labour's 12-point lead-which would be a precondition for winning a future leadership contest.  To do this he would need a free hand to distance himself from the party's establishment and think out of the box to recompose the party's middle class hegemony, something which could create resentment within the party.