Inside the PN’s deputy leadership | Ministers versus MEP

It may well have started as a strategic chess move which saw Tonio Borg kicked upstairs to Brussels to make way for the PN golden boy, Simon Busuttil: entrusted with Herculean task of narrowing Labour's 12-point lead. 

Still, the move would have lacked legitimacy without a credible contest pitting Busuttil against a party heavyweight. A one-horse race would have been hard to sell to a sceptical electorate and it was Fenech's entry in the fray which finally gave the contest the credibility it lacked. 

In this way, Tonio Fenech did a favour to the Prime Minister by heeding his call for a contest. But subsequently his candidature has become a rallying cry for a coalition of future aspirants and party diehards bent on blocking the ascent of Busuttil to the number two post. 

Coupled with Fenech's personal strengths as a strong debater and his allure as the Finance Minister who weathered the international storm, this alliance of convenience and principle could well upset Simon Busuttil's applecart.

Moreover, while the Prime Minister's initial chess move gave the impression that he was behind Busuttil's candidature, his reluctance on having a one-horse race could have paved the way to an unpredictable contest which is set to take place a day after Tonio Fenech presents the final budget of the legislature. The risk of having a credible contest is that the race between friends could become even less friendly with every day that passes. 

The two contestants have already made rival claims on paternity of the PN's forthcoming manifesto, with Fenech claiming ownership of the economic chapter while Busuttil revealing that he is writing the whole thing. Only if the two contestants are able to work side by side after the contest, would the party have gained from it.

Ministers ganging up

What the strategists behind Gonzi's chess move probably had not foreseen was the reaction of the cabinet to the candidature of an outsider. While Busuttil might benefit from not having been supported by the Cabinet if he does win the contest, he has to first win a contest where individual ministers can influence councillors. 

At the end of the day, Fenech has won the endorsement of both Chris Said and Mario de Marco, who are seen as moderate modernisers with leadership ambitions in a post electoral scenario; and conservatives like Austin Gatt.

Both de Marco and Said abstained from the contest, fully knowing that a defeat at this stage would have burned their future chances in a contest for the top spot. On the other hand, they seem to resent the idea of Simon Busuttil being seen as the designate leader in a contest taking place under the shotgun of an imminent election, where the party would be tempted to place its bets on the popular MEP.

Moreover, while Gatt's support is a liability among the wider electorate, the government's most unpopular minister is still highly influential among the 900 councillors who will determine the contest. Party hawks like Beppe Fenech Adami, who carries the legacy of his father, have also joined this unlikely alliance.  Significantly, Mario de Marco has been keen on downplaying the contest, first joking about becoming Fenech's campaign manager when the latter's candidacy was deemed unlikely and then by justifying not contesting by saying "two is a company, three is a crowd". 

The Times of Malta, which is partly owned by the Strickland Foundation of which de Marco is a member, has also criticised the idea of having a contest in the first place, warning of the risk that "there are no friends in contests" and that the contest will bruise the party at a delicate moment.  

What is clear by now is that the support being given to Fenech by his colleague is not of a symbolic nature but a very active one, with ministers offering their testimonials in meetings with councillors of various districts. Fenech is also making daily media appearances accompanying ministers in press conferences. 

One particular danger of such a scenario where too many people having different interests are involved is that the campaign could go out of hand, with rumours being spread without the direct complicity of the two contenders.  Bad blood would be the inevitable consequence if these rumours also target the private life of the contestants. 

Franco Debono minefield

Simon Busuttil's conciliatory approach towards Franco Debono and Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando could also return to haunt him.  Franco Debono's blog attacks on Tonio Fenech may well backfire on Busuttil and rally party councillors around Fenech, who is seen as more hawkish than Busuttil in contrasting the rebel backbenchers.

Significantly, Debono's blog also made reference to the finance minister's baggage, which includes cases of dubious political judgement when he accepted a free flight with two prominent businessmen to watch an Arsenal match, and when he entrusted a leading contractor involved in a separate bribery case involving his private secretary with home restoration works.  

Fenech has always denied any knowledge of the misdeeds of his private secretary and when this issue was raised on PBS programme TVAM, he replied that he would "leave politics" if any truth emerges that works on his house were carried out to curry favour with him.  

Although doubts about Fenech's political baggage are a serious liability to his campaign, the fact that these accusations are being made by Debono could end up working to Fenech's advantage, especially in view of the fact that the Prime Minister had absolved him of any wrongdoing. 

Still, councillors would be burying their heads in the sand if they ignored another part of Fenech's legacy; his reference to the Virgin Mary crying because of divorce, a memory which could thwart the party's attempts to cosy up to liberal voters.

The councillors' verdict

Simon Busuttil's strong point at the moment is the perception that he stands a better chance as the candidate who could narrow Labour's lead by appealing to undecided voters.  Surveys by MaltaToday have shown that Busuttil is both the automatic choice as next leader and as deputy leader in the forthcoming contest. 

Yet Simon Busuttil's candidature in both the 2004 and 2008 MEP elections, did not prevent heavy losses for the party despite a strong affirmation for himself.  Fenech's debating skills and his gravitas as the minister with the most difficult portfolio also contrast with the MEP's inexperience in government and his more dovish style. 

Still, Busuttil - who is backed by the loyal but critical backbencher Jean Pierre Farrugia - could have been in a greater position to reach out to undecided voters. On the other hand Fenech emerges from surveys as the second least popular minister after Austin Gatt.  

But it is also doubtful whether all councillors are convinced that the next election is winnable and with that doubt in mind they may well choose Fenech as a stop-gap measure in view of their favourite candidate's future leadership aspirations. 

Others may also prefer Fenech as a greater guarantee for continuity with party traditions.  They may also think that Fenech would more of team leader especially in view of the fact that with the exception of Health Minister Joe Cassar, the cabinet seems to prefer Fenech.  Some may even be convinced that Fenech can help Gonzi win the next election, especially if this perception is boosted by the presentation of a positive budget which may well be perceived to be the game changer the PN needs at the moment. In fact, the risk for the PN is that the budget may well have a greater impact on the PN's 900 councillors than on voters at large.