After the Christmas truce... the election

For the past months, Franco Debono has been consistently making it very clear that he will vote against the budget as long as Austin Gatt remains a minister.

Ironically, it was Lawrence Gonzi who, back in January, had suggested that Gatt would be resigning from government to lead the PN's electoral campaign. 

But this eventuality became unlikely the very moment Debono made it a condition for supporting the government. Giving in to Debono's demand at this moment would be a major sign of weakness.

Provided that Franco Debono keeps his word and Gatt remains in the Cabinet, the fate of the government will be sealed in next Monday's vote. 

Even if Debono has a late change of heart on the budget vote, he will still have to vote on the budgetary allocation for Austin Gatt's ministry a few days later. Even a negative vote at that stage would spell an instant end for the present government.

Technically, even at this stage, an election would not be inevitable as the President has the power to appoint someone else who commands a majority of the house. In this way, he would ensure that the country would not go to the polls without a budget.

But this scenario is extremely unlikely, given the lack of any such precedent in Maltese history.

A budget destined to fail

The Prime Minister knew that the budget would not pass. This raises questions on why he nonetheless presented a budget fully knowing it would fail. The answer is three-fold. First of all, Gonzi has managed to buy precious time to ensure that the election takes place in 2013. Effectively this means that Gonzi has managed to prolong the existence of his government by a year since Debono dubbed his government as an "evil clique". 

Secondly, had Gonzi called an election earlier (in October) and refrained from presenting the budget, he would have been accused of hiding the real state of the country's finances: something which would have been very damning for a Prime Minister who prides himself on weathering the international economic storm.   Thirdly, by presenting a budget which was destined not to pass, the government has an electoral advantage: the promise of tax cuts written black on white on a document, which can only be ratified after the election. 

Labour leader Joseph Muscat tried to neutralise this by endorsing the regressive tax cuts with the excuse that a new government would not be in a position to renegotiate the EU certified budget. But in so doing, he has conditioned the next government's fiscal programme, thus leaving little space for the next government to manoeuvre.  Still, despite the obvious advantages for the government, Gonzi's readiness to present a budget destined to be rejected by parliament also raises the suspicion that the budget was more an exercise of political propaganda than economic management. 

Moreover although Franco Debono will be blamed for endangering the country's wellbeing by torpedoing the budget, Gonzi could also be blamed for not calling an election after the summer recess and leave the task of presenting the budget to a government with a solid majority in parliament, thus ensuring economic and political stability.  Ultimately, the fact that the budget is rejected is another stark reminder that Gonzi has not managed to heal the rifts on the government benches.  But the collusion between Debono and the opposition in bringing down the government over a relatively positive budget could in itself result in a sympathy vote for the incumbent government.  This raises the possibility that Debono will unknowingly play a vital part in the party's electoral strategy.

A bingo of dates

The Prime Minister claims that he has not decided when the next election will take place. He also went on to suggest that the election would take place in January, February or even later.

Technically, if the government survives next Monday's vote, it can remain in office till 10 August. 

But if the government falls (as expected next week), an election will have to be held within the next three months but not before 33 days from the day parliament is dissolved.  This means that an election can be held on any date between Saturday 26 January and 16 March.  

But a January date is very unlikely, since this would barely leave two weeks of campaigning following the Christmas truce.

Therefore, the quick decision the PM would have to execute is whether it suits his party to have a long three-month campaign or a short and intense 33 day campaign as has been the case in every election since 1992. 

Much will depend on what the polls will be saying in the next few days.

If the latest internal chess moves - which led to the elevation of Simon Busuttil to deputy leader - start paying electoral dividends, Gonzi may be tempted by a short campaign. But in the absence of any surge in support, Gonzi may prefer a longer campaign, which increases the likelihood of Labour committing gaffes.

One likely date for the election is 9 March, as this also coincides with local elections, which are due on that date.