Explainer | Countdown to tonight’s budget vote

Dissident Nationalist MP Franco Debono has been threatening to vote against the 2013 for the last few weeks. Monday's budget vote is a Money Bill, and has the same importance as a vote of no-confidence. Its rejection would effectively mean that Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi is legally bound to ask the President to dissolve Parliament.

If the prime minister does not either resign from his office or advise a dissolution within three days from the vote, the president may dissolve parliament himself.

The Maltese Constitution gives the president the powers to appoint another MP, who can command the support of a majority of the members of the House of Representatives, as Prime Minister.

The Constitution stipulates that if the prime minister recommends dissolution and the President considers that the government can be carried on without a dissolution and that a dissolution would not be in the interests of Malta, the President may refuse to dissolve parliament.

However, the chances of this happening are remote, and as happened in 1998 when former Labour leader Dom Mintoff voted against the government, then prime minister Alfred Sant proposed the dissolution of parliament and president Ugo Mifsud Bonnici issued the election writ.

On the issue of the president's writ, a general election shall be held within three months of parliament's dissolution. The minimum length of the electoral campaign is not stipulated by the Constitution, however the legal demands, including the printing and distribution of voting documents and the processing of candidate nominations, set by the General Elections Act mean that elections can be held 35 days after the dissolution of parliament, at the earliest.

Since election day must be held on a Saturday, the earliest possible date for the election date is Saturday, 12 January.

However, since the two main political parties have come to a gentlemen's agreement on a three-week truce from electioneering during the festive season, the electoral campaign will formally start on 7 January, making it practically impossible to hold the election on 12 January.

The furthest date possible is Saturday, 9 March, which fits in with the Nationalist Party's perceived willingness to stretch the campaign in order to have more time to bridge the advantage Labour is currently enjoying in the polls.

...Franco Debono abstains

With Labour leader declaring that the 34 Opposition MPs will vote against the budget, if Franco Debono, another government MP, or independent MP Jeffrey Pullicino Orlando abstain, the government and the 2013 Budget would be saved by the Speaker's casting vote, as long as the vote is tied. If all Labour MPs vote against and more then one MP from the government benches abstain, the Speaker's vote would not be cast as the government would be defeated and the prime minister would have no option but to ask for Parliament's dissolution.

...Franco Debono votes in favour

In the remote but possible event of Franco Debono changing his mind overnight and voting for the budget, then the government will not only survive the Budget vote but it will also regain full control of the situation and decide its own fate, at least as far as the election date is concerned.

Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi has already stated that "whatever happens on Monday, the election can come in January or February" or whenever he decides to hold the election.

However, if the government survives Monday's vote, the government will still need to survive a series of budget votes which will be held in the following two weeks.  The votes on each ministry's budget will be taken on seven separate days, with the vote on Franco Debono's nemesis - Transport Minister Austin Gatt - scheduled for Wednesday, 12 December. The only certainty the government has is that if it survives tomorrow's vote, it is in for a rough ride in the following weeks and election fever will inevitably grip the country by the first week of January.