ANALYSIS | Missing from parliament

Labour's casualties

Surely missing from the next parliament will be Labour MPs Gino Cauci, Gavin Gulia, Anthony Zammit, Noel Farrugia and Charles Mangion.

Relatively unknown in politics, surgeon Anthony Zammit skyrocketed to fame after operating on former MLP leader Alfred Sant in December 2007. Zammit gave regular bulletins about Sant's health while the latter was in hospital being treated for colon cancer.

A month later, Zammit received a standing ovation during the Labour Party's annual general conference.

In his address, the surgeon said the Labour leader had emerged victorious from his big medical test and would do the same in the general election. In a clear reference to former President Eddie Fenech Adami, he had said Sant had sought treatment in Malta while others had gone to the US. Zammit also hit out at how medical details on Sant's condition were leaked to the press: "The Nationalists were offended when we told them he is there and he will be there... They described my bulletins as similar to Fidel Castro's... Where is the professional ethic? They threw mud, cast doubts, created uncertainty. He is there and he will be there."

During the 8 March election, he was elected from the seventh district with 2,737 votes first count votes from the seventh district. In August 2008 he was again in the news headlines after going through the trauma of a hold-up in which he was bound and beaten at his residence in Żebbuġ by three hooded and armed men who made away with about €1,200, some wristwatches and a diamonds ring. New Leader Joseph Muscat first appointed Anthony Zammit as spokesperson for minorities and animal rights and subsequently as his main spokesperson for health. But in a subsequent reshuffle of the shadow cabinet Zammit lost the health portfolio and was appointed spokesperson for ethics and generational solidarity. In the 2013 general election Zammit only got 385 first count votes from the 5th district (down from 1506 in 2008) and 804 (down from 2737 in 2008) from the seventh.

Noel Farrugia had been elected to the House of Representatives in 1992, 1996, 1998, 2003 and 2008 and had served as Minister of Agriculture under Alfred Sant. For the next ten years he served as the opposition's shadow minister for agriculture. In 2008 the new leader Joseph Muscat appointed him spokesperson for international development aid. In his seventh district Farrugia was the casualty of the rise of new district heavy weights like Godfrey Farrugia and Ian Borg

Labour's other casualty on the seventh district was Gavin Gulia who contested successfully the general elections of 1996, 1998, 2003. In 1998 he was appointed Minister of Justice. But in 2008 he was only re-elected by a casual election. On the seventh district sixth district Gulia's first count fell 290 to 150 from while on the seventh it fell from 2203 to 1352. Gino Cauci who made it to parliament through a casual election following the death of Karl Chircop failed to make it again despite his high visibility of Labour's media.

The most prominent absentee will be Charles Mangion, who not only served as PL deputy leader but temporarily served as leader of the opposition after the 2008 election defeat and Alfred Sant's resignation. Mangion was first elected to parliament in 1987 and was re-elected in every subsequent election. He also chaired the public accounts committee for the past decade.

At 74 years of age Labour veteran and former deputy leader Joe Debono Grech, elected in all elections since 1971 still managed to increase his first count vote from 984 to 1776 first count votes. But while back in 2008 he emerged as a runner up to Alfred Sant on the first count, in this year's race he was surpassed by front runners Edward Scicluna, Chris Cardona and Edward Zammit Lewis. The decision of the party's executive to vacate Edward Scicluna's seat on the eight district means that Debono Grech will surely make it to parliament. In 2008 Debono Grech was also elected through a casual election but was elected after Sant vacated the eight district seat. Mangion's seat on the sixth district was taken by newcomer the 27 year old Luqa mayor Silvio Schembri.

In the first district, Labour MP Luciano Busuttil will also probably make it through a casual election, even if he will be facing competition from new upstart criminal lawyer David Farrugia Sacco. When eliminated Busuttil had 1833 votes, while Farrugia Sacco had 1043 votes.  Back in 2008, the first district had been contested by former PL leader Alfred Sant. Busuttil was only was elected in the nineteenth count.

On the second district, it was Chris Agius, who did not make it. But Agius will start as the front runner in the bye election for the seat vacated by Labour leader Joseph Muscat.

Another probable survivor is former deputy leader Michael Falzon who starts as the front runner to take the seat vacated by Manuel Mallia on the tenth districts.

PN casualties

It is very difficult to foresee which Nationalist ex-MEPs will surely not make it. This is because apart from by elections which could see incumbents Stephen Spiteri and Edwin Vassallo and possibly Karl Gouder and Censu Galea making it again to parliament, four other MPs will be recovered through the constitutional amendment ensuring strict proportionality between seat and votes.

In this way Carm Mifsud Bonnici and Frederick Azzopardi are also likely to make it to parliament.

So far the only PN MP to call it a day was Jean Pierre Farrugia who announced his retirement from active politics on Faceboo. His resignation was accompanied by the release of an email sent to the party leader in 2010, in which he dissociated himself from the party's modus operandi, and urged a change in direction. He was first elected to Parliament in 1996 and re-elected in 2003 and 2008 respectively. From 1998 to 2008, he served as President of the Nationalist Party Executive Committee.

Carm Mifsud Bonnici - a former minister who was forced to resign after maverick MP Franco Debono joined the opposition in a no-confidence vote, failed to get elected from the third distinct where PL managed to grab its fourth seat. Mifsud Bonnici was also close in the fourth district, but was the last candidate to be eliminated. He will surely be elected through the constitutional mechanism giving extra seats to make up proportional representation as guaranteed by the Constitution. Another MP who was very close to being elected was the Gozitan Frederick Azzopardi who would also probably make it through the same constitutional mechanism.

Charlo Bonnici, a former head of news at NET TV and a former chairman of the Eurovision Song for Europe Board, is another notable casualty in this election. Bonnici was elected through a bye election in 2008. Subsequently he contested for the post of party general secretary and was defeated by Paul Borg Olivier. Bonnici was eliminated with just 869 votes and veteran Edwin Vassallo is the favourite to win the seat vacated from the eleventh district. Vassallo who took an active stance against the introduction of divorce and voted against its introduction in parliament has seen a slight dip in first count votes in his Mosta district, from 2047 in 2008 to 1921 in 2013.

On the other hand Karl Gouder, the first openly gay MP in Maltese history risks exclusion from the next parliament. Gouder's only chance of making it is from the seat vacated by George Pullicino on the tenth district where Gouder faces stiff competition from newcomer Albert Fenech. On the ninth district Gouder's position is even more difficult due to the presence of stronger candidates like Marthese Portelli and Kirsty Debono.

After being elected in parliament for a week after Tonio Borg was appointed EU commissioner, family doctor Michael Axiaq who previously chaired parliament's ethics committee, failed to make it to parliament.

Another casualty so far was former Minister Censu Galea who was elected member of Parliament in every election since 1987. Following his re-election in 1992, Galea was appointed parliamentary Secretary in the Ministry for Social Security. In 1994, Galea was appointed Minister for Food, Agriculture and Fisheries responsible for Agriculture, Fisheries, Aquaculture and Housing. Following the General Elections of September 1998, Galea was appointed Minister for Transport and Telecommunications. He was reappointed in the same position following the elections of April 2003. In March 2004, Galea was appointed as Minister for Competitiveness and Communications in the Cabinet of Prime Minister Lawrence Gonzi. In March 2008 Galea was re-elected to parliament however was not assigned a Ministerial Role and thus lost his place in the Cabinet. But Galea still has a chance of making it back to parliament due to the party's decision to vacate Tonio Fenech's seat on the 12th district.  Since Claudette Buttigieg is likely to win a place in parliament as one of the best runner ups through the constitutional amendment, Galea could make it from the casual election.

PN deputy party whip Joseph Falzon only managed to garner sheer 312 votes at the 11th count on the ninth district. This makes his election through the casual election on this district unlikely. Family doctor Frans Agius, a former Minister and a fixture on the PN's benches for the past 16 years also failed to make it. Frans Aguis had served as Parliamentary Secretary responsible for the Elderly between 2003 and 2004 and was responsible for Agriculture and Fisheries between 2004 and 2008.  His only chance of making back to parliament is through a casual election on the second district where Stephen Spiteri, another former MP, starts as the favourite.

Philip Mifsud who was elected for the first time to the House of Representatives of Malta in the 2008 Maltese general election, failed to make it this time round. Peter Micallef also failed to make it again after winning a seat in parliament in a casual election in 2010. This suggests that candidates making it to parliament through a casual election find it hard to establish themselves in subsequent elections.