[ANALYSIS] PN leadership | Two contests, same story?

Both major parties found themselves facing an identity crisis after their respective defeats in 2008 and 2013.

For Labour, the 2008 general election represented a third consecutive defeat following an ephemeral victory in 1996, which briefly had interrupted the PN's hold on power since 1987. 

Although defeated by a mere 1,500 votes, Labour's defeat was seen as a confirmation of the party's inherent inability to win elections despite the unpopularity of the Nationalist Party in office. 

Unlike 2003, when Sant first resigned only to change his mind a few weeks later, in 2008 the Labour leader immediately announced his "irrevocable" resignation paving the way for a leadership race pitting MEP Joseph Muscat against estranged former party deputy leader George Abela, current deputy leader Michael Falzon and sitting MPs Marie-Louise Coleiro Preca and Evarist Bartolo. In the interim period Charles Mangion held the post of acting party leader, after announcing that he was not contesting for the post.

Like Labour in 2008, the PN is faced with an identity crisis suffering one of the heaviest defeats in Maltese history after occupying the reins of government uninterruptedly since 1998 and winning a majority in all elections held since 1981 except for the one held in 1996. 

PN leader Lawrence Gonzi immediately announced his intention not to re-contest for the post but unlike Sant in 2008 he has opted to remain party leader until the election of his successor. The decision paved the way for a contest between deputy leader and former MEP Simon Busuttil, ex-Tourism Minister Marion de Marco, ex-Foreign Minister Francis Zammit Dimech and outsider Raymond Bugeja.

The most notable difference between the two defeats is that while Muscat inherited a strong opposition facing a one-seat majority government, the next PN leader will lead an opposition facing a nine-seat majority government.

Unlike the PN, which will be publishing its report on the defeat after the leadership election, the PL published its analysis of the defeat on May 24, just a few days before the contest. But while the PN's failure to publish the report is now interpreted as a step favouring Busuttil, who had a central role in the PN's campaign, the publication of Labour's report in 2008 had irked Michael Falzon who claimed that the document was "biased" against the electoral office, of which he formed part.  

A restricted college

One clear similarity is that, before an epochal decision, both parties faced an internal call to widen the franchise to all party members but ultimately opted to retain the present system of electing the leader through a restricted college of councilors or delegates. But while in Labour's case the call to involve all party members in the crucial decision was openly discussed and rejected in a vote in a party general conference held a month before the actual contest, in the PN's case it was the party executive which turned down in a closed meeting.  In Labour's case the call to widen the franchise was made by the George Abela camp. In the PN, the case for electing the new leader through a wider franchise was made by former parliamentary secretary Clyde Puli and was reportedly supported by Mario de Marco and Robert Arrigo. 

Another notable difference was that while the "unofficial" campaign for the PL's top post took nearly three months, with Muscat announcing his candidature on 24 March and being elected on 6 June, the PN contest will take a month.

Two MEPs: same ambition

One striking similarity between the contestants is the role of two former and relatively young MEPs. 

Both Muscat and Busuttil were the front-runners of the two major parties in Malta's first MEP election in 2004. 

But Muscat and Busuttil were perceived as the favorite candidates of the party establishment and the respective acolytes of Sant and Gonzi. But both tried to dispel this image during the campaign for party leadership.

Yet while Muscat played a minor role in the 2008 election and was not even a candidate thus distancing himself from the organisational and strategic errors leading to the defeat, Busuttil fronted the PN's 2013 general election campaign as deputy leader.

In this sense Busuttil finds himself in the same position as Labour's former deputy leader Michael Falzon, whose numerous gaffes during the campaign thwarted his chances in Labour's 2008 contest, failing to reach the second round in which Muscat was pitted against outsider George Abela. Just as Busuttil is remembered for the 'wicc ta Nazzjonalist' and 'grocer gaffes', Falzon was remembered for his reference to the "lions of change." He had also borne the brunt of criticism for the decision to extend polling time by an hour due to queues in certain Labour-leaning localities. 

While Abela presented himself as an anti establishment outsider who had been estranged from the party since 1998, after his successful spell as party deputy leader before the 1996 electoral victory, in the PN's race the role of outsider is taken by businessman Raymond Bugeja who lacks Abela's stature and gravitas. To some extent Mario De Marco has taken on the role of outsider. For despite serving in Gonzi's cabinet, the former minister is perceived to be less connected to the party's establishment.

He also inherits the mantle of his father, Fenech Adami's rival in the 1977 contest, and subsequently loyal deputy leader. Still, Busuttil counters this claim by referring to the fact that with the exception of former health Minister Joe Cassar, the whole cabinet including De Marco was opposed to his election as Deputy leader in December 2012. 

Although both contests started up with a plurality of candidates, both followed the dynamics of a two-way race: Muscat vs. Abela in Labour's 2008 contest and Busuttil vs. De Marco in the present PN contest. Francis Zammit Dimech seems destined to perform somewhat better than Evarist Bartolo (who lost his constituency to Muscat) and Coleiro Preca (who was backed by the party's old guard).

But Labour's contest was slightly more ideological than the PN's. For while all PN contestants tend to emphasise the same values, presenting themselves as more socially liberal than Gonzi, Muscat had distinguished himself by supporting the introduction of divorce while opposing any shortening of detention for migrants a stance favoured by Abela.

Abela and De Marco favoured by floaters

Opinion polls also indicate similar patterns with both Abela and De Marco enjoying greater support among non-Labourites and Muscat and Busuttil emerging as front-runners among their party's respective voters.

A MaltaToday survey published in May 2008 showed 44% of Labour voters supporting Joseph Muscat. In last week's survey Busuttil emerged as the choice of 46% of PN voters.

Not surprisingly Abela - who entered the race as an outsider after a decade in the political wilderness, and who clashed with both former MLP leader Alfred Sant and GWU secretary general Tony Zarb - was by far the most popular candidate among Nationalist voters. Although de Marco never clashed with Gonzi he is also more popular among Labour voters. 

More significantly, Abela like de today Marco emerged as the favourite candidate among the pivotal category of floating voters. Yet despite his unpopularity among floaters in 2008, Muscat still managed to win over thousands of floaters in the next four years.

While George Abela was favoured by 50% of floating voters, Muscat was only favoured by 18% of respondents in this category. In last week' survey de Marco enjoyed the support of 57% of switchers (former PN voters who switched to other parties in the 2013 general election). It was the vast support Abela enjoyed among non-Labourites, which catapulted the him to the position of the most popular candidate on a national level: 9% ahead of Joseph Muscat. De Marco presently an even greater 15-point national lead.