[ANALYSIS] If the PN wants back in the driver’s seat

Continuity or change? | A question of experience? | The family factor | Leadership styles | The two outsiders | Liberal or conservative? | Putting the house in order | What the polls are saying

With few differences in ideology to contend with, councillors will be weighing de Marco's appeal among floating voters as an agent of discontinuity after a landslide defeat and Simon Busuttil's drive and personal ambition, which in many ways mirror Joseph Muscat's ascent to power.

For, despite the contribution of Francis Zammit Dimech through his deeper sense of history and the spice added by the candidature of a complete outsider, entrepreneur Raymond Bugeja, two clear frontrunners have emerged, namely former Tourism Minister Mario de Marco and incumbent deputy leader Simon Busuttil.

Continuity or change?

Compared to Busuttil, de Marco seems to represent a greater element of discontinuity as someone detached from the party's establishment, even if he served in Gonzi's cabinet first as Parliamentary Secretary in the Office of the Prime Minister, where he was also responsible for reforming the Malta Environment and Planning Authority, and finally as Tourism Minister in the last year of the Gonzi administration.

The perception that he was not the anointed one for the leadership puts him in a better position to mend fences with the switchers, who rejected Gonzi-Busuttil in the last general election.

This is confirmed by surveys showing de Marco as the preferred candidate of those former PN voters who switched to Labour.

De Marco's success as the minister responsible for growth in tourism and restoring some environmental sanity in MEPA, albeit at the cost of upsetting the developers' lobby, adds the spice of political experience to his outsider's bid, something which the other outsider, Ray Bugeja, lacks.  Moreover, compared to veteran Francis Zammit Dimech, de Marco is still considered new, despite his cabinet experience.

De Marco would have a clear advantage if he's elected to the top post: he'll be able to reach those disillusioned with the GonziPN formula.

For, despite his attempts to distance himself from the Gonzi government, of which he was not a part, Busuttil was himself the beneficiary of an elaborate political chess move. It first saw him appointed as Gonzi's civil-society envoy and then as the replacement for Tonio Borg as party deputy leader after Borg replaced John Dalli as EU Commissioner, following the latter's controversial resignation.

In fact, Busuttil (pictured) has made an effort to distance himself from the Gonzi legacy, refusing the label of Gonzi protégé. "Though I've always been loyal to Lawrence Gonzi, I don't think I am Lawrence Gonzi. I've disagreed with him in the past: the bus fares, the departure tax, maternity leave and the service pension issue. Where I felt needed to say no, I did so," Busuttil said in an interview with the Sunday Times of Malta.

Busuttil has also emphasised the fact that back in December, when he contested against Tonio Fenech for the post of deputy leader, he was opposed by most of Gonzi's cabinet.

Countering the perception that he was himself part of the clique, Busuttil now argues that the party needs to shake off the long-held image, whether accurate or not, that it is run exclusively by a small group of people. "Much as this image may be denied, there is no doubt that it is perceived as reality," he says, adding that the new leadership must make sure there is no place for cliques or exclusivity.

But the greatest obstacle for Busuttil in his present bid is his failure to save the party's fortunes in the last general election, with the party having lost dramatically after a campaign in which Busuttil started off as the star who knocked out Labour's deputy leader Anglu Farrugia, but ended up heavily bruised by a series of his own mistakes and gaffes.

Busuttil has not shied away from self-criticism, displaying a rare quality in Maltese politics and readily admitting that his infamous "face of a nationalist" remark was a bad choice of words.

"I could have been more careful in how I phrased the 'wicc ta' Nazzjonalist' comment... but Labour also took it out of context and distorted the message."

Busuttil is also associated with the PN's largely negative campaigning, which has been criticised by de Marco.

"I did not like the painted faces billboard. Neither did I like the 'blokka silg' billboards, which were left in place until just a few days before the election."

But despite these not-too-distant unhappy memories, Busuttil stands out as the most focused of all four candidates and the most savvy in conveying his political message.

A question of experience?

Weighing in Busuttil's favour is his experience and standing in the European Parliament and European People's Party.

His political achievements include leading the EPP in the Civil Liberties, Justice and Home Affairs Committee, which deals with sensitive issues like immigration and gay rights.

Busuttil's rise to the top echelons of a European parliamentary body is testimony to the ambition of the young MEP, which puts him in the same league as Labour leader Joseph Muscat, who also distinguished himself in the parallel Party of European Socialists. Echoing PES President Martin Shulz's endorsement of Muscat in 2008, EPP President Joseph Daul has now endorsed Busuttil.

Busuttil boasts of his role in convincing his colleagues in the EPP to vote in favour of a resolution condemning homophobia.

"It was the first time the conservatives have supported this kind of motion," Busuttil recalled in an interview with Raphael Vassallo in MaltaToday.

In fact Busuttil's strongest card is his track record in policy-making, and one of his most interesting commitments is to ensure that the party proposes alternative policies while in opposition.

While de Marco has been frank in admitting his reluctance to contest, constantly referring to his initial hesitation and his wife's vital role in convincing him at the very last moment, Busuttil showed little signs of hesitation in contesting for the PN's top post.

In an interview with the Times, de Marco admitted that just hours before submitting his candidature he was convinced it would be a mistake for his family, but "at 9pm my wife told me to go for it because I would not live with my conscience if I did not."

In some ways, de Marco's reluctance to contest and concern about the impact of his political choices on his family make him appear more human and less of a calculating politician.

But Busuttil's shrewd determination and personal ambition could make him better prepared for the trying times ahead.

Facing the third campaign in row, that for the deputy leadership in December, the general election in March and the leadership campaign, Busuttil can rely on his own proven organisational machine.

For, despite his gaffes, Busuttil still managed to earn 58 per cent of the PN vote in the 11th district and more than 50 per cent on the ninth, raking in a total of 14,440 votes, the highest number of first-preference votes after the party leaders.

Busuttil was the first contender to come out with a detailed political programme, outlining both his political vision of a "people's party" and his plan to reorganise the party's fortunes.

The family factor

For his part, de Marco (pictured) stands out as the only one of the four candidates who has a wife and children on his side, something which was used to full effect by both Gonzi and Muscat in the 2008 and 2013 elections, but which could become less effective as discerning voters start getting irked by the corniness of this sort of emotional propaganda. In fact , it may well go against de Marco's sense of propriety.

De Marco has been careful only to refer to his family in underlining the human cost of politics: "I am the father of two young children, and my duty is to them first and foremost. Public life often comes at a price, and that price is most often borne by politicians' immediate families. But I have their backing, and I feel I can contribute to the party," he said.

On the other hand, with Busuttil as leader, the party could be in a better position to reach out to separated persons and single parents, categories which were completely alienated by the party during the divorce campaign.

Leadership styles

De Marco has also signalled his aversion to any leadership cult. He even steers away from his father's reputation for seeking the limelight.

"I resemble my mother, not my father ... My father was an extrovert. I am not. He had a tendency of taking on things and then seeing how to handle them, whereas I like to weigh out the options and take in the full scenario before deciding," he said.

De Marco's sober approach to leadership augurs for an interesting contrast with Muscat's highly flamboyant and personalized leadership style.

Busuttil's style would probably be more similar to Muscat's high-octane ways, even if the PN contender insists that he would make a distinction between being popular and being populist.

The challenge for de Marco will be reaching out to the average Maltese voter, who might find his aristocratic demeanour off-putting.

While as an ex-MEP and party deputy leader, Busuttil demonstrates greater organisational skill, de Marco makes up for this with eloquence and political gravitas, which is resonant in his highly distinctive voice. It is also extremely reminiscent of his father's, even if he avoids certain of his father' antics, like greeting passersby or acquaintances and lifelong friends with the same enthusiasm.

While Busuttil comes across as more structured in setting the tasks in front of him, de Marco comes across as a natural in the art of political persuasion.

The perception that de Marco is more of a grassroots politician, while Busuttil is a high-powered career suit, is also grounded in the different paths taken by the two politicians in their political careers.

While Busuttil owes his rise to his highly visible role as the technocratic, albeit friendly, face of the government's public-information unit before the EU referendum, de Marco had to fight his way up at constituency level, even if his task was facilitated by being the son of a party patriarch.

No sharp distinctions have emerged in the political vision of the four contenders for the post, though there are notable differences in style and personal political history.

The two outsiders

As the complete outsider in the race, entrepreneur Raymond Bugeja has made it spicier, given his appeal as a businessman who moves well in politics. He might capture the imagination of those inclined to think that business acumen is the key to restoring the party's fortunes, but for most of the public, he remains an unknown character who suddenly descended from nowhere to the political stage. Though recovering from a sound beating, clearly the PN has not reached the point where it wants to shake hands with a Maltese Berlusconi, a comparison which Bugeja himself was quick to dismiss.

Surely veteran Francis Zammit Dimech has elevated the discussion with his insights and understanding of modern politics and communication strategies. Zammit Dimech is also the best placed to rekindle memories of days gone by, when the party headquarters was a hub of activism. One of the central platforms of his campaign is that the PN's headquarters "must once again become a hub of political activity" alongside reinvigorated sectional committees. Surely this has struck a chord with rank and file activists who constantly lament the loss of the Stamperija as a second home.

By contesting, he has also challenged ageist stereotypes which seem to write off people over 60 from holding positions of leadership.

But being an ex-minister from the 1990s, he hardly comes across as the candidate who can represent change for a new generation of voters.

By now it is clear that two front-runners have emerged in the race, namely former Tourism Minister Mario de Marco and Deputy Leader Simon Busuttil.

Liberal or conservative?

When it comes to political vision, de Marco, Busuttil and Zammit Dimech - the three candidates who have published a political programme - stand for a social market economy where a liberalised economy coexists with social solidarity, and all three project themselves to be more socially liberal than Gonzi and Fenech Adami.

Although during the campaign de Marco has stressed his party's economic liberalism, in the past he underlined the centre-left credentials of his party, adhering to Alcide de Gasperi's definition of Christian democracy as being of the centre and looking towards the left (the definition shared by his father). Simon Busuttil and Francis Zammit Dimech are of the same ilk.

Yet despite paying lip service to liberal sentiment, at no stage have any of the candidates articulated how far they will be going in this direction on issues like civil unions, same sex marriage and immigration. Surely none of the contenders has stood up for traditional or conservative values. It seems that all recognise that the party cannot win without appealing to the liberal voter, but they are also aware that the majority of PN voters remain conservative.

Perhaps the most imaginative re-definition of party identity was made by Raymond Bugeja, who described himself as a "conservative with a liberal heart" and a "capitalist with a social heart." In so doing, he was the only one of the four candidates to fit the right-wing, yet compassionate label.

Neither did any of the candidates express themselves on how far the state should meddle in the economy, even if they identify with the party's historical role in liberalising it. The general impression is that they are all capable of shifting from left to right according to political exigencies, something in which Fenech Adami excelled.

Yet with Labour moving towards the centre ground occupied by the Nationalist Party, pressure could mount to reposition the PN on the centre-right as a way to underline its identity. But as happened before, the PN could be tempted to shift to the left if Muscat's government veers too much to the right. All in all, it is this ideological flexibility which turned the PN in to a formidable machine when in opposition, outflanking both old Labour in the 1980s and Alfred Sant in the late 1990s.

Putting the house in order

So far the candidates have been most forthcoming in their proposals on reforming internal structures.

All four candidates stand for organisational reform of the party, making members count more in party structures, and they tend to be more socially liberal than both Lawrence Gonzi and Eddie Fenech Adami.

De Marco has presented an 18-point programme, which includes a proposal to have a section dedicated to the organisational aspect of elections, a revamp of sectional committees, a review of their roles to keep the party in touch with society and a reform of the party media, with the aim of appealing to floating voters rather than hard liners. Echoing Zammit Dimech, de Marco also speaks of the need of reclaiming the PN headquarters to be "a hub of political activity and not represent exclusion as was the case in recent years."

Zammit Dimech has proposed that party candidates should undergo training: "Training would involve the basics of political thought, communication, economics and handling different forms of media, with special emphasis placed on strategy and being close to the people - which is more fundamental than anything else."

Not surprisingly, it is entrepreneur Raymond Bugeja who presents the most radical solutions to the party's dire financial problems, advocating a sort of privatization of its clubs.

"Let's take the kazini (party clubhouses) as an example. Does the PN really need to own its clubhouses? Would it make more sense to sell off properties which it doesn't need to actually own and then lease them off the new owners?"

The more policy-oriented Busuttil has proposed the creation of a commission to review the statute and structures of the party.

Party headquarters, he said, needed to be open and attractive to people, and better use ade of the party's properties.

Busuttil has also advocated a stronger say in decision-making by party members, proposing the establishment of two new party institutions: a conciliation committee to reconcile different views with the party and an annual convention every year to give the membership the opportunity, over several days, to discuss and draft policy.

While Busuttil's most innovative proposal is his emphasis on involving members in party policy, de Marco's most interesting pitch is his promise to make the party less partisan in its communication strategy.

"This is the party that invented political dialogue - we need to see less stage-managed events," he said referring to Taħt it-Tinda, where questions to politicians were prepared in advance.

"That is not real dialogue. They're good to boost the morale of the supporters."

He could also be more in synch with voters who are less likely to be bound by rigid partisan allegiance.

"People want less politics in their everyday lives but a more effective form of doing politics."

Crucially, he also targets the younger generations, acknowledging that it is "no longer cool to be a Nationalist." Actually, reaching out the apathetic segment of the electorate, which is more easily swayed by both sound bites and effective, small-scale management of matters directly affecting daily life, could be one of the greatest challenges for a party which fared badly on both fronts in the past five years.

What the polls are saying

A MaltaToday survey of 500 respondents indicates that while Simon Busuttil enjoys a clear majority among current PN voters, Mario de Marco is better placed to reach out to both Labour voters and voters who deserted the PN in the last election. The survey shows that the other two contenders for the post, namely former Minister Francis Zammit Dimech and entrepreneur Raymond Bugeja, do not enjoy a wide following.

The former Minister for Tourism Mario de Marco is the preferred choice of the 500 respondents for the post of PN leader. He enjoys a clear 15-point lead over present PN Deputy Leader Simon Busuttil.

But among Nationalist voters in the March general election, Busuttil enjoys a strong 9-point lead over de Marco. Busuttil also enjoys a slight, 2-point lead over de Marco among PN voters in the 2008 general election.

De Marco's overall 15-point lead over Busuttil is explained by the latter's unpopularity among Labour voters and de Marco's greater appeal among switchers and voters who refused to divulge how they voted in the last general election.

Significantly, de Marco is more appealing to the electorally strategic category of switchers, who voted PN in 2008 but switched to Labour or AD in 2013.

In this category, 57% prefer de Marco, and only 27% prefer Busuttil.

Not surprisingly, Busuttil registers the lowest levels of support among Labour voters. Only 7% of Labour voters would prefer Busuttil as PN leader, and 40% would prefer de Marco.