[ANALYSIS] Lawrence Gonzi, the legacy of a social conservative

Through his 10-year span in power Gonzi changed the country's economy with his brand of fiscal conservatism.

But at the same time, he resisted social change by opposing and ultimately voting in parliament against the introduction of divorce. He also put transparency and accountability on the back burner while dedicating his energies to weathering the economic storm. He did show flexibility, changing tack on environmental policies two years after opening the floodgates for the construction industry by extending development zones.

Ultimately, he showed signs of statesmanship in handling the Libyan crisis and securing a good financial deal from the EU budget. But he failed miserably as party leader in controlling rogue or rebellious elements in his own party. He also stood up for 'non negotiable' values on rescuing migrants from the sea which contrasted with his government's hawkish detention policy.

Not all about the economy

On the economic front, Gonzi emerges a decisive Prime Minister who managed to cut subsidies across the board and shrink the role of the state in the economy.

The Malta left by Gonzi is remarkably different from the Malta he inherited from Fenech Adami.

Subsidies on gas, utilities were removed or drastically scaled down, the dockyards and the ports are run by private companies and the bus drivers monopoly was replaced by a 10-year contract to transport giant Arriva. He even managed to raise the retirement age to 65 years without facing any social unrest.

All this certainly came at a cost. He proved to be an expert in buying the peace by dishing out millions in compensation packages to bus drivers and dockyard workers.

The removal of subsidies also increased hardships for the lower middle class, which came at an enormous political cost.

Although subsidies were slashed, Enemalta continued to make losses. Moreover, the oil procurement scandal - which unfolded under Gonzi's watch - created the perception that higher utility tariffs were the result of corruption or incompetence, rather than a sign of fiscal responsibility.

The latest report by the auditor general does show that Gonzi's decision to substitute Austin Gatt with Tonio Fenech midway during the last legislature did raise the bar of standards. But this was not enough to save him from the political fallout of previous misdeeds. Moreover, even the privatisation of the dockyard came in the wake of the Fairmount scandal, which contributed to the bankruptcy of the dockyards. Arriva also failed to live up to high public expectations.

Gonzi's greatest achievement was weathering the global financial crisis by avoiding job losses through an injection of State aid to manufacturing companies which were threatening to close down. In this way, Gonzi's incisive State intervention saved Malta from the job losses afflicting other European countries.

His decision to join the eurozone may well have been unfortunate due to the troubles facing the zone in the subsequent year, but it may well have been providential in keeping his own government from over-spending.

"What values lie at the root of policies that give the impression that public spending has no limits? That we run into mountains of debt and shift the burden onto our children?" Gonzi said in a European Union summit of European People's Party leaders in September 2012.

His discourse was always highly reminiscent of conservative politicians of the Angela Merkel ilk, who like Gonzi favour fiscal policies which reward hard work and thrift.

But the crisis forced Gonzi to postpone his pre-2008 promise pledge to cut income tax for high-income earners, a decision which was politically damaging but which probably saved Malta from bankruptcy.

Gonzi's economic legacy also includes flourishing financial services and gaming sectors which have a multiplier impact on the economy but which have increased Malta's dependency on sectors which are coming increasingly under EU scrutiny.

Gonzi's fiscal prudence is partly responsible for Malta's relative success but other factors like the lack of exposure of local banks to the collapse of the global financial system cannot be attributed to government of the day.

Moreover Malta's institutional and democratic deficits and shortcomings, largely left unaddressed by Gonzi, also pose economic risks as the Greek experience clearly shows.

Ultimately Gonzi's ultimate political mistake may well have been that he believed in Bill Clinton's 'It's all about the economy, stupid', adage. Ultimately, people took this for granted and still voted for change.

The green conversion

Before 2008, Gonzi stood out for his bias in favour of development projects.  Like Muscat today, he seemed keen on kick-starting the economy by opening the floodgates for development.

It was Gonzi who back in 2005 proposed a golf course at Xaghra l-Hamra and initiated studies for the development of an artificial island.

Moreover, in 2006 his government was responsible for the extension of development boundaries and the relaxation of building heights, two decisions that permanently altered the Maltese skyline.

Still, Gonzi had the good sense to change tack, partially because studies, which he himself had commissioned, showed that golf courses and land reclamation require unsustainable property development to become feasible and ultimately because public opinion had turned against him.

After being re-elected, Gonzi stopped toying with mega projects and introduced full-time boards at MEPA, thus reducing the conflicts of interest faced by part-time architects serving on these boards. Ultimately, this came at a political cost. For while environmentalists still blamed him for his pre-2008 policies, he managed to irk the developers' lobby.

Gonzi's record on energy was far less impressive mostly thanks to lack of action in pre-2008 period where Malta lost valuable time in developing renewable energy sources and in seeking financial assistance to develop a gas pipeline.

The only project he managed to secure albeit not complete is the Malta-Sicily interconnector. Ultimately, Labour outwitted Gonzi by coming out with a neo-liberal proposal to hive off 40% of Malta's energy provision to a private gas company.

Gonzi's divorce hara-kiri

Gonzi was unable or unwilling to repeat the same conversion on environmental issues to moral issues until it was already too late. His government was associated with the application of outdated censorship laws, legal obstacles to Joanne Cassar's pursuit of happiness and an ill-fated opposition to divorce. Still, one of the ironies of history is that divorce was introduced under Lawrence Gonzi's watch... and largely as a result of Gonzi's way of doing politics.

For it was Gonzi who first proposed a referendum on this issue as a way shoving responsibility away from parliament and onto the people. Ultimately, this tactic backfired as Gonzi found himself voting against the will of the majority in the post referendum parliamentary vote on the new divorce law. In one fell swoop, he probably alienated an entire segment of the population from his party. 

Gonzi's defence - that he voted against divorce while ensuring enough votes for the passage of the law - exposed him to the charge of hypocrisy of someone who desperately wanted to save himself from a moral taint and thus sacrificing his own democratic credentials.

Gonzi's other hara-kiri move was the way he opted to top up the salaries of his Cabinet behind the people's backs. While Gonzi may well have been right in principle - for it is better to have highly paid ministers than ones who seek to top their income through private employment - his way of implementing the measure was fodder for the Labour Party's propaganda machine.

Gonzi's statesmanship on Libya

Gonzi showed political wisdom in ditching Gaddafi at a moment when the Labour opposition was still hesitant on taking sides in the Libyan conflict. Ironically, Gonzi was the last western leader to visit the Libyan dictator during the Arab spring, days after the ousting of Ben Ali and Mubarak, in what could have been another case of lack of foresight. But Gonzi did manage to appear decisive when it became clear that Gaddafi's days were counted, especially when confronted by events like the defections from the Libyan air force. Gonzi also projected himself as a statesman taking a prominent role in the evacuation of foreigners from Libya. Yet the free Libya  which Gonzi gave a valuable contribution to proved to be something of a disappointment, especially in its treatment of sub-Saharan African people and its inability to disarm rogue militias.

Gonzi's legacy also includes negotiating a €1.128 billion budget from EU funding for Malta for the next seven years which include €80 million to assist Malta in its migration problems.

Immigration: Gonzi's non-negotiable values

Speaking to EPP leader in September 2012, Gonzi reaffirmed that the rescue of asylum seekers was part of the country's non-negotiable values. "Do I succumb to the populist approach and pretend there is nothing I should do because this is somebody else's problem? Or do I translate this non-negotiable value into practice, and do everything I can to save those lives at sea?"

Gonzi's refusal to pump iron on immigration and exploit xenophobic sentiments may well be his most positive legacy as prime minister. His refusal to succumb to the populist temptation on this issue may well derive from Gonzi's firm Catholic principles, which he did not limit to the issue of divorce.

But it was also during Lawrence Gonzi's time in office that Malta's detention policy, which keeps migrants detained for a maximum of 18 months, was implemented and devised. It was this policy which contributed to serious incidents like beating of migrants by the army in 2005 and the arraignment of a soldier for the murder of an irregular migrant in 2012. On this score, Gonzi never found the courage to change a policy condemned by human rights bodies and which contributed to Malta's logistical problems in facing the annual arrival of between 1,500 to 2,000 migrants.

Gonzi's leadership blunders

While he had his moments of glory as prime minister, Lawrence Gonzi failed miserably in his role as party leader. He not only sidelined critics but also seemed impotent in reining in unpopular elements like Austin Gatt. 

He also seemed more comfortable and confident in his role as a PM dealing with fellow European leader than as party leader constantly undermined by backbench unrest.

Gonzi also failed to keep discussion alive in the party, only invoking it in moments of crisis, such as his reconfirmation as leader in a one-hors race in 2012 in the wake of the Franco Debono rebellion. 

In some ways, he was a victim of the GonziPN strategy. After the PN won an improbable victory in 2008 - mainly thanks to Gonzi's untiring campaigning, the newly elected PM felt confident enough to stream roll his agenda despite commanding a one-seat majority. 

Still, Gonzi did show brinkmanship skills in outfoxing Labour and his rebel backbenchers to ensure that the election took place in 2013, and not before. 

He has also gained sufficient time to complete a triple chess move which saw his former deputy Tonio Borg replaced by Simon Busuttil just a few months before the election, thus finding an alternative formula to GonziPN.

But while Gonzi managed to win time, he only managed to lose even more support for his party during the months he had gained.

During his second term in office, Gonzi's plight was reminiscent of Sisyphus, the Greek mythological king cursed by the gods to roll a huge boulder up a steep hill only to see it fall down each time he reached its top. Ultimately, Gonzi will go down in Maltese history as the PM who lost the heaviest political defeat in post war history, with his party losing by nine seats and 36,000 votes.

But the jury remains open on his ultimate legacy as a prime minister.