Sixth MEP’s seat could go either way

The Nationalist Party has made winning the sixth seat, up for grabs in May's European election, a matter of do or die, with new leader Simon Busuttil pinning his hopes on leading the party to win its third seat for the first time ever.

Although at a glance this appears to be a Herculean task, figures show that the PN stands a very good chance of securing the third seat.

In the two previous elections, Labour emerged victorious, earning three out of the five seats available. In the last round, Labour elected a sixth MEP after the Lisbon Treaty increased Malta's allocation of seats and Joseph Cuschieri, who came closest to getting elected after the five seats were allocated, took the last seat in 2011.

The PN's decision to raise the stakes and place so much importance on electing a third MEP might look risky and could possibly come back to haunt Busuttil's party, however numbers show that the likelihood of winning a third seat is not remote at all.

Based on the 2009 European Parliament election results, the PN has as good a chance of winning three seats as Labour has of retaining four seats. In the last round, the election result was worked out on five seats, while next year's election will be worked out on six.

The election quota is reached by dividing the number of valid votes by the number of seats, plus one. Therefore, in 2009, the quota was set by dividing the total of valid votes (248,169) by the number of vacant seats, plus one (five seats plus one), resulting in 41,362.

Subsequently, Labour elected three candidates to the PN's two, after Labour earned 54.77% of the vote and the PN could only muster 40.49%. The difference between the two parties stood at 35,431.

Labour obtained 135,917 votes, or 3.2 quotas, while the PN's 100,486 votes translated into 2.4 quotas (the two parties' respective tallies being divided by the quota).

Applying a quota based on six seats rather than five to the 2009 result, Labour would obtain 3.83 quotas, while the PN would have 2.83 - meaning that both parties would have an identical chance of either winning four and two seats, or equally dividing the six vacant seats.

This would lead to a repetition of the 13th-district result in the last general election: only 213 votes divided the two parties, and although the PN obtained 2.99 quotas to Labour's 2.95, the fifth seat went to Labour after the distribution of votes. An alleged error by the Electoral Commission also swayed the result Labour's way.

Applying a six-seat quota to the 2004 result, when Labour had a 21,000-vote advantage on the PN, would clearly result in a third seat for the PN.

The quota applied in 2004 stood at 40,954; however if the same total of valid votes is divided by six seats plus one, the quota falls to 35,103. Applying the six-seat quota to Labour's 118,722 votes equates to 3.39 quotas, while the PN's 97,688 votes would result in 2.78 quotas, making it nigh to impossible for Labour to win a fourth seat.

One different variable in the 2004 election was the staggering 22,936 votes obtained by Alternattiva Demokratika, which had come very close to electing Arnold Cassola in the first European elections held in Malta.

What could happen in 2014?

If next year's election result is identical to the last round, the allocation of the six seats will go to the wire, with Labour's chances of retaining a fourth seat being statistically identical to the PN's chances of winning a third seat.

In the remote eventuality of an identical result, the PN's chances of winning a historic third seat would depend on the distribution of votes of its elected and eliminated candidates, although in 2009, Labour's last standing candidate, Joseph Cuschieri, enjoyed a 6,000-vote advantage over his closest rival from the PN's ranks, Roberta Metsola.

However, the 2014 election will be a completely different ballgame to 2009, and a number of factors could sway the result one way or the other.

The first difference in the PN's ranks is the absence of Simon Busuttil, who was elected PN leader following the harrowing defeat in the March general elections, when the PN lost by the same margins as in the 2009 European election.

Busuttil holds the record for the highest number of votes ever obtained by any candidate in Malta in one election, having garnered 58,889 votes in 2004 and 68,782 votes five years later. 

His absence will invariably result in a more evenly balanced distribution of PN votes, especially if the Opposition does not field a heavyweight candidate in Busuttil's mould. This could lead to a bigger number of PN candidates surviving the interminable vote counting process and holding a better chance of taking over a Labour candidate in the race for the sixth seat.

A second potential determinant lies in the fact that for the first time ever, Labour goes into the European election as the party in power; and if the dreaded mid-term effect comes into play, then the PN could spring a surprise and reduce the gap to such an extent that winning a third seat would be a formality.

Unless a disaster of cataclysmic proportions hits the Labour government, the possibility of the PN overturning the two-seat deficit is impossible - even the staunchest of PN supporters would admit that.

Next year's election is most likely to centre around migration; and Prime Minister Joseph Muscat's bullish stand on the pushback of asylum seekers seems to be in synch with the electorate, including PN voters.

This makes the next European election an uphill struggle for the Opposition, which is still coming to terms with the heaviest defeat in history. However, if it equals the 2004 European election result or at least makes minor inroads from the last round, winning a third seat is well within its grasp. This could explain why Busuttil is making it look like a bigger obstacle than it really is.