MaltaToday survey | Muscat retains massive trust lead over Busuttil

FULL DATA

Despite his generous budget and a strong showing in parliament in the Budget speech, Joseph Muscat has lost four points in his approval rating as prime minister since the beginning of October, when his performance was deemed a positive one by 51% of respondents.  Muscat's rating is now 11 points than it was in April a month after the general elections. In October Muscat had managed to recover some of the support lost following a dip in support before the summer lull.

The recent drop suggests that recent events like the proposed citizenship scheme and rising concern on the environment, following the approval of the Mistra permit, might have dented Muscat's popularity.  

But despite this small dip, Muscat's approval rating remains higher to that enjoyed by former prime minister Lawrence Gonzi in the entire previous legislature.

In September 2008, Lawrence Gonzi's performance was deemed a positive one by 41%. But by the following year, his approval rating fell to an abysmal 19%. 

The survey also shows that the number of respondents judging Muscat's performance as 'so-so' has increased by 10% since October. This suggests that a segment of the electorate is disenchanted to a certain extent, but not enough to deem Muscat's performance negatively. In fact the percentage of those who judge Muscat's performance negatively have decreased by two points.

Significantly, the survey still shows Muscat making some inroads among Nationalist voters in the last general election, 6% of which judge his performance positively.

But 10% of Labour voters and 26% of switchers (respondents who voted Nationalist in 2008 and Labour in 2013) deem his performance as being "so and so".

In a reflection of increased polarisation and the PN's more belligerent opposition in the past weeks, the percentage of PN voters who deem his performance a negative one has increased by 16 points.

Nearly a tenth of switchers also judge his performance negatively. This suggests that after nine months in power, Muscat has disenchanted a portion of voters who switched sides in the last election, but he still manages to enchant a small number of Nationalist voters.

The positive news for the prime minister is that this disenchantment has so far not resulted in any gains for his rival Simon Busuttil.

Muscat leads Busuttil by 17 points

Despite a small dip in his approval rating, Muscat retains the same trust lead over PN leader Simon Busuttil which he enjoyed in October.

In fact both leaders have lost a point over last month, while the percentage of respondents who trust neither of the two leaders has shot up by 4 points. 

Significantly while only 1.4% of PL voters in the last election trust Busuttil more than Muscat, 7% of PN voters trust Muscat more than Busuttil. This suggests that Muscat is still making inroads in the Nationalist Party's restricted voting base.

The good news for Busuttil is that 8.7% of switchers who voted PN in 2008 and PL in 2013 now prefer him to Muscat. Moreover, while 57% of switchers trust Muscat over Busuttil, a significant 21% trust neither of the two leaders. This suggests that the loyalties of this category remain fluid.

The survey also shows that Busuttil has solidified his hold over a vast majority of PN voters. In fact 85% of PN voters trust Busuttil more than Muscat. This could be an indication that over the past six months Busuttil has managed to project himself as a leader who can still deal blows to the government, despite its nine-seat majority.  One such instance was Busuttil's strong opposition to the citizenship law. But Muscat commands a greater loyalty among PL voters.

While 85% of PL voters judge Muscat's performance as prime minister positively, 91% trust their leader more than Busuttil. This suggests that a section of Labour voters is disenchanted by Muscat's performance in government but would still prefer him to Busuttil.

Malta Taghna Lkoll no more?

The percentage of respondents who believe that Labour is honouring its Malta Tagħna Lkoll electoral pledge has dropped by nearly 10 points since May. In fact only 36% now believe that Labour is honouring its central electoral promise in the appointments made over the past months.

On the other hand the percentage of those who believe that Labour is 'not always' honouring its meritocracy pledge has increased by 10 points, while those who believe that Labour is not honouring this pledge entirely has increased by 5 points.  

Significantly a third of Labour voters and 40% of switchers are not convinced that the new government is implementing its promise in full. Only 2% of PN voters think that Labour is honouring its meritocracy pledge while two thirds think that it is disregarding it entirely. 

Citizenship scheme shot down again

The survey shows that despite the removal of the controversial secrecy clause, the new Individual Investor Programme, through which non-EU nationals may acquire citizenship by paying €650,000, remains deeply unpopular.

In fact as in last month's survey, only 26% agree with the scheme. But the survey shows a small four-point drop in outright opposition to the scheme and a five-point increase among those who would like the €650,000 donation to be accompanied by a more tangible investment in the Maltese economy.

While the survey shows no change in opinion among PN voters, opposition to the scheme among PL voters has dropped by 7 points, while opposition among switchers has dropped by 10 points. Despite these changes, 39% of switchers and 22% of Labour voters remain firmly opposed to the scheme.

Moreover among Labour voters, respondents who were opposed to the scheme seem to have shifted to a more qualified support and not towards a clear endorsement of the scheme. In fact the percentage of Labour voters supporting the scheme if accompanied by investment has increased by 4 points.

Only 5% of PN voters were willing to support the scheme if accompanied by investment.  This suggest that the vast majority of PN voters would like the scheme to be entirely scrapped, a position which contrasts with the party's willingness to enter talks with the government aimed at finding a compromise.

Changed landscape

The survey suggests that the election of a Labour government has resulted in growing concerns about the environment, jobs and immigration and transport related issues and a lower concern for the cost of living and utility bills.

On the eve of the first protest by environmentalists under a Labour government concern on the environment has shot up from being one of the two top concerns of 5% of respondents in June to 12% now.

Most respondents mentioning the environment referred to over-development and wrong planning decisions. Concern on immigration has also increased from just 2% before the first arrivals of the year to 11% now.

Concern for the cost of living expressed by 67% of respondents in 2009 had already fallen to 27% in June. Now concern on the cost of living has fallen to an all-time low of 13%. Moreover, concern on Labour's electoral trump card, the utility bills issue, has fallen from 50% in 2010 to 20% in June and just 7% now.

Significantly people are now more concerned by the state of the roads than by utility bills. The decrease on concern over utility bills comes in the wake of a commitment by the government to reduce the bills by 25% as from next March. Since there has been no significant change to the rate of inflation and the utility bills will only decrease in March, the result can be attributed to reluctance by Labour-oriented respondents to express the same concerns as before.

The decrease in the percentage of respondents who mention utility bills as one of their two top concerns could also indicate that respondents are reassured by the new government's plan to eventually reduce these bills.

Labour respondents are also more likely to mention less partisan issues as their main concerns. While only 6% of PN voters mentioned the state of the roads as one of their two top concerns, the percentage rises to 15% among Labour voters. Significantly, concern on environmental issues is markedly higher among PN voters. While the environment is one of the two top concerns of 16% of PN voters, it is only a concern for 6% of PL voters. On the other hand, immigration is a top concern for 13% of PL voters and only 7% of PN voters. And while 27% of PN voters mentioned the new citizenship scheme as one of their top two concerns, only 2% of PL voters did likewise.  

Significantly concern on employment has now emerged as the top concern of the Maltese people. This is a complete reversal of the situation under the previous administration, when concern on jobs was always surpassed by that of the cost of living and utility bills. Concern on health services has also risen dramatically, by eight points from just 2% last year to 11% now.

The survey also shows a greater diversity of concerns expressed by respondents when compared to last year. A record 27.2% (up from 19% in June) expressed their concern on issues falling under the remit of Transport Malta and Transport Minister Joe Mizzi, namely roads, traffic and public transport. Following the removal of bendy buses and their replacement with a fleet of older buses, concern on public transport has shot up from 5% to 11%.

Methodology

567 respondents were contacted by telephone between Monday 2 December and Thursday 5 December.  400 accepted to be interviewed.  The results of the survey were weighed to reflect the age and gender balance of the population. The survey has a margin of error of +/-4.9%.